By Amber Krushas , Zachary Hamilton, Alex Kigerl , Xiaohan Mei  

Purpose: While risk instruments are consistently used to aid classification and supervision decisions, needs as sessments guide intervention efforts for individuals under supervision. At the core of the Risk-Needs-Responsivity (RNR) model and the General Personality and Cognitive Social Learning (GPCSL) theory, dynamic needs scoring allows agencies to identify change in needs over time. Yet, few studies have assessed the potential impact of changes among needs items. To overcome this limitation, the current study assesses how needs score change may influence recidivism propensity among youth. Methods: Using multi-level frailty models, the current study examines how changes in youth needs assessment scores influence time-to-recidivism among a large (N = 42,922), multi-state sample of justice-involved youth assessed with the Modified Positive Achievement Change Tool (MPACT). Results: Findings demonstrate that youth with increased needs scores and those that remained the same at reassessment had a greater propensity for recidivism, compared to those that decreased scores. Conclusions: Policy implications identify the effectiveness of the MPACT in measuring youth change, its utility for case management, and the needs domains most associated with recidivism reductions.   

Journal of Criminal Justice 90 (2024) 102146 

By \The National Institute for Criminal Justice Reform

Utilizing interviews and data from law enforcement, probation and parole, and community-based organizations, NICJR has conducted detailed analyses of gun violence in several cities throughout the country. Although youth account for only a small proportion of the population involved in nonfatal injury shootings and homicides,² YDII is based on the premise that risk factors for gun violence were likely already present during the pre-teen and adolescent years. If specific experiences and measurable characteristics can predict who will become a victim or suspect in a shooting later in life, these data can be used to guide intervention strategies to prevent the violence.

But what risk factors did the young adult shooting suspect possess at the age of 13? NICJR will select at least five jurisdictions to conduct data analysis and a longitudinal cohort assessment of young people between the ages of 18-25 who have been convicted of homicide or attempted homicide. The study will trace their backgrounds and contacts with the juvenile justice, child welfare, education, and other systems and attempt to identify a common pattern of combined risk factors that predict future gun violence. After the completion of the data analysis and longitudinal assessment to identify the series of risk factors that is predictive of future gun violence involvement, the goal of YDII is to help jurisdictions track these risk factors in youth in real time, most likely through the school system. When any young person reaches the threshold of this series of risk factors, the project team will engage that young person and their family in an array of intensive community-based services and supports

Oakland, CA: NICJR, 2022. 17p.

By Hazel Kemshall

HM Inspectorate of Probation is committed to reviewing, developing and promoting the evidence base for high-quality probation and youth offending services. Academic Insights are aimed at all those with an interest in the evidence base. We commission leading academics to present their views on specific topics, assisting with informed debate and aiding understanding of what helps and what hinders probation and youth offending services. This report was kindly produced by Professor Hazel Kemshall, summarising key learning for practitioners and organisations in relation to risk management. Practitioners are often required to make decisions in challenging situations with incomplete information, and it is thus important to pay attention to the potential influence of subjective biases and individual emotions and values. To minimise error and ensure that decisions are balanced, reasoned and well-evidenced, practitioners need to seek and critically appraise information, and adopt an open, honest and reflective approach….

Manchester: HM Inspectorate of Probation, 2021. 16p.