FIRE BEHAVIOUR INDEX AUSTRALIAN FIRE DANGER RATING SYSTEM

By JEN HOLLIS AND STUART MATHEWS

To most Australians, fire danger forecasting is embedded within our cultural identity and history. It’s as Australian as kangaroos, the Holden Ute and the Sydney Opera House.

For the last six decades Australians have relied heavily on the pioneering work of Alan McArthur who developed the Forest Fire Danger Index and Grassland Fire Danger Index. The system has served Australians well and with only minor adaptations to meet local needs, it remains largely unchanged. The most significant adjustment came after the 2009 Black Saturday fires in the state of Victoria which, in one afternoon, burned through more than 450,000 hectares and resulted in the devastating loss of 173 lives.

Following a Royal Commission investigation into the fires, it was recognised that McArthur’s system was being applied well beyond the original design. As a result, categories were added, including one at the top end of the fire danger scale reflecting conditions beyond the existing maximum of 100. Importantly, it was also recognised that there was a need to incorporate new science and technological developments (for example, remote sensing, landscape mapping, higher computational capability) into calculating and interpreting fire danger.

International Association of Wildfire. 2022.