By Gomes Eannes De Azurara (Author), Colin Heston (Editor), Raymond Beazley (Translator)

The Chronicle of the Discovery and Conquest of Guinea is one of the most important early historical sources on the European Age of Discovery. Written in the mid-fifteenth century by Gomes Eannes de Zurara, the royal chronicler of Portugal, the work offers a detailed and vivid narrative of Prince Henry the Navigator’s sponsorship of voyages along the West African coast. Zurara’s chronicle records the systematic exploration of the Atlantic islands and the African shoreline, the capture and enslavement of Africans, and the establishment of the Portuguese presence south of Cape Bojador — a turning point that opened the way for European maritime expansion.

This English edition, translated and edited by historian Charles Raymond Beazley and lusitanist Edgar Prestage for the Hakluyt Society (published 1896–1899), makes Zurara’s text accessible to a modern audience. Their careful translation preserves the rich detail of the original, while their scholarly introduction and notes provide historical context about fifteenth-century Portugal, Prince Henry’s motives, and the wider significance of these early voyages.

Part narrative history, part celebration of Portuguese royal ambition, the chronicle reveals both the triumphs and moral ambiguities of the early encounters between Europe and Africa. It remains an essential source for historians of maritime exploration, Atlantic slavery, and global contact in the late Middle Ages.
This version has been carefully edited, removing unnecessary endnotes, footnotes and other distracting content that distract from a pleasant reading experience.

Read-Me.Org Inc. New York-Philadelphia-Australia. 2025. 267p.

By Michael D Anestis , Jayna Moceri-Brooks , Devon Ziminski , R Thurman Barnes , Daniel Semenza

Importance: American Indian or Alaska Native and Black adults experience elevated rates of firearm injury and death, but both groups are severely underrepresented in research on firearm exposure and behaviors.

Objective: To explore geodemographic differences in firearm behaviors and violence exposure among American Indian or Alaska Native and Black adults in the US.

Design, setting, and participants: In this survey study, nationally representative samples of American Indian or Alaska Native and/or Black adults recruited from KnowledgePanel were surveyed cross-sectionally. Surveys were administered online between April 12 and May 4, 2023.

Main outcomes and measures: Firearm access, storage, and carrying behaviors and lifetime firearm violence exposure were the primary outcomes. Demographic factors such as age, geographic location, and political affiliation were considered. Data were weighted to geodemographic distributions from the US Census Bureau's 2022 Current Population Survey.

Results: Of 3542 participants, 527 (14.9%) were American Indian or Alaska Native (280 [53.1%] female) and 3015 (85.1%) were Black (1646 [54.6%] female). Both groups exhibited high firearm access rates (American Indian or Alaska Native adults: 238 [45.4%; 95% CI, 39.4%-51.7%]; Black adults: 909 [30.4%; 95% CI, 28.0%-32.9%]), predominantly owning handguns for home protection. The groups demonstrated similar firearm storage patterns, and a substantial proportion endorsed always or almost always carrying firearms outside the home (American Indian or Alaska Native adults: 18.9%; Black adults: 15.2%). Self-protection was a common reason for carrying a firearm (American Indian or Alaska Native adults: 104 [84.9%; 95% CI, 74.1%-91.7%]; Black adults: 350 [88.3%; 95% CI, 82.3%-92.4%]), and a minority of participants cited lack of faith in the police (American Indian or Alaska Native adults: 19 [15.2%; 95% CI, 8.2%-26.7%]; Black adults: 61 [15.4%; 95% CI, 10.3%-21.2%]), indicating potential shifts in public safety dynamics.

Conclusions and relevance: In this survey study of American Indian or Alaska Native and Black US adults, a substantial percentage of both groups reported living in homes with firearms, storing firearms loaded and unlocked, frequently carrying firearms outside the home, and having been exposed directly and indirectly to gun violence. These findings underscore the need for nuanced public health campaigns and policies and highlight challenges for law enforcement in contexts of racial disparities and changing legal frameworks.

JAMA Netw Open, 2024

ByMariela Infante Erazo, Alejandra Mohor Bellalta, and Paula Salvo Del Canto

According to UNODC’s Global Study on Homicide 2023, Chile remains one of the safest countries in Latin America. Homicide rates have increased, however, as have gendered crimes that victimize women and girls. Additionally, state action and media coverage regarding security in Chile have primarily focused on addressing economically motivated crimes, and efforts have been directed towards the promotion of punitive policies rather than evidence-based and prevention-focused approaches.

Security policies in Chile align with the belief that gun ownership makes citizens safer. Promoting gun ownership to enhance citizens’ security is not without risk, as higher levels of gun ownership have been linked to increased levels of GBV, heightened crime rates, and decreased respect for human rights.

This research paper—Critical Gaps: Firearms and Gender-based Violence in Chile—provides an overview of the current status of gender-responsive small arms control and violent crime in Chile, highlighting institutional shortcomings and failure to effectively articulate the relationship between gender-based violence and small arms control. This paper outlines a roadmap to better identify synergies between policies to address both issues.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2025. 12p.

By Matt Schroeder

KEY FINDINGS • This Situation Update is an initial analysis of newly acquired US government data on seizures of outbound firearms shipments at US ports. The findings are preliminary and will be checked against data from other sources in future research. • The data reveals a notable increase in seizures of firearms shipments to both the Caribbean and Latin America from 2016 to 2023. Seizures of shipments to Mexico more than tripled in this period, and seizures of Caribbean-bound shipments increased by 48 per cent. • Rifles (all models) accounted for a much higher percentage of firearms in shipments to Latin America than to the Caribbean.

• AK- and AR-pattern rifles comprised a higher percentage of rifles seized in Caribbean-bound shipments than in those bound for Latin America, including Mexico. Similarly, shipments to the Caribbean contained a higher percentage of high-capacity pistol and rifle magazines, including magazines capable of holding 50 or more rounds. • The transport modes of the seized shipments varied significantly between and within the two regions. • The overwhelming majority of seizures took place in southern US border states, with seizures in Florida comprising nearly 90 per cent of shipments to the Caribbean and almost three-quarters of shipments to Latin American countries other than Mexico.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 10p.

By Kellie Walker, Cedric Dark, Sandra McKay

2024 marked the 25th anniversary of the Columbine High School shooting, which resulted in the deaths of 13 people, including 12 students, and left 21 others injured. This event was not an isolated incident. Over the past quarter of a century, an estimated 311,000 children have been exposed to gun violence in school settings.[6] During the 2023–24 school year alone, there were 144 reported incidences of gun violence in schools.[7] Previous years have also seen notable incidents, including the 2012 shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, which claimed 26 lives, and the 2018 shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, which resulted in 17 deaths and 17 injuries. In May 2022, another devastating tragedy occurred at Uvalde Elementary School, where 19 children and two adults were killed.[8]

Gun violence has extended beyond K–12 schools, affecting a broad range of educational facilities, including colleges and universities. One of the first documented mass shootings in an education setting occurred in 1966 at the University of Texas at Austin, where an enrolled student in crisis killed 17 people and injured 31 others.[9] Since then, patterns of firearm-related threats and attacks have continued at various higher education institutions, with mass shootings occurring at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, and Michigan State University in 2023.[10]

Scope of Review

This report will focus on firearm violence in primary and secondary schools, excluding post-secondary school violence. Evidence gathered from surveys and, where applicable, experimental data will be examined to understand the perspectives of children, parents, and school personnel on school firearm violence. This analysis will inform future studies by the authors, which will provide recommendations for school districts looking to implement strategies to prevent further violence.

In evaluating approaches to reducing firearm death among school age children, an analysis of the peer-reviewed literature dating from 1963–2023 was conducted. Studies from decades ago reveal trends that remain true today, indicating that past interventions have not changed the tide of gun violence among American youth.

Houston, TX: Baker Institute for Public Policy, 2025. 16p.

By Paul M Reeping , Ariana N Gobaud , Christopher N Morrison , Charles C Branas

There have been no peer-reviewed, quantitative research studies on the effectiveness of gun-free school zones. The objective of this study was to use a cross-sectional, multi-group controlled ecological study design in St. Louis, MO city that compared the counts of crimes committed with a firearm occurring in gun-free school zones compared to a contiguous area immediately surrounding the gun-free school zone (i.e., gun-allowing zones) in 2019. Gun-free school zones were measured and analyzed in two ways. In the primary analysis, boundaries of the tax parcels were used for each school as the beginning of the gun-free school zone. Results from this analysis, after adjustment for pair-matching and confounding, were null. In the secondary analysis, gun-free school zones were measured as beginning at the geographic centroid of the school's address. After adjusting for the pair-matching and confounding, this analysis showed 13.7% significantly fewer crimes committed with a firearm in gun-free school zones compared to gun-allowing zones. These results suggest that gun-free school zones are not being targeted for firearm crime in St. Louis, MO.

J Urban Health. 2023 Dec;100(6):1118-1127. doi: 10.1007/s11524-023-00800-4. Epub 2023 Nov 14. PMID: 37964181; PMCID: PMC10728035

By David Pérez Esparza, Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Tony Payan and Carlos Pérez Ricart

Gun shows are public gatherings where licensed gun dealers and private gun owners use formal and informal venues to exchange information or sell and buy firearms, accessories, and ammunition. A major challenge is that gun shows, unlike established business locations, can be considered gray zones where regulatory loopholes facilitate the movement of legal firearms to illegal domains both domestically and internationally. Given this, they tend to feed into gun trafficking schemes. Despite this, gun shows are poorly monitored. Moreover, these events are not tracked by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and what little is known comes from academic studies, press releases, or outdated ATF reports. To address this gap, update information, and generate a better understanding of how gun shows connect with gun trafficking, we generated a gun show dataset in the US from 2011 to 2019. We compiled information on promoted gun shows from three main sources, The National Rifle Association Magazine and the websites Gun Show Trader and Shooting Illustrator. We completed our dataset by looking at other minor sources that promoted gun shows. Our dataset encompasses information of 20,691 gun shows and suggests that 71% of them occurred in states where background checks were not required during gun sales between private individuals. We argue that scholars and practitioners will find in this dataset an original tool to analyze gun shows and their impact on public security and public health.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 4(1), pp. 86–96

By Paul Michael Reeping

Gun-free zones have the potential to increase or decrease the risk of gun crime and active shootings that occur within their borders. People who assume that gun-free zones increase gun related outcomes believe that the lack of the ability for law-abiding citizens to carry a firearm, and thus an inability to engage in defensive gun use if a threat presented itself, makes gun-free zones a soft target for crime. Those that assume gun-free zones decrease gun related outcomes believe the absence of firearms eliminates the risk of an escalation of violence to gunfire. Up until this point, there has been no quantitative research on the effectiveness of gun-free zones, despite the topic being highly controversial. This dissertation was therefore the first to: create and describe a dataset of active shootings in the United States, and assess the extent to which defensive gun use occurs during these events (Aim 1); conduct a cross-sectional ecological analysis for the in St. Louis, Missouri (2019), both city and county, comparing the proportion of crimes committed with a firearm that occur in gun-free school zones compared to gun-allowing zones immediately surrounding the gun-free zone to quantify the effectiveness of gun-free school zones and (Aim 2); conduct a spatial ecological case-control study in the United States where cases are the locations or establishments of active shootings between 2014 and 2020, to quantify the impact of gun-free zones on active shootings, and assess if active shooters target gun-free zones (Aim 3).. The results of Aim 1 of this study suggested that defensive gun use during active shootings was rare, usually does not stop the attack, and does not decrease the number of casualties compared to active shootings without defensive use. Aim 1 also thoroughly described the novel active shooting dataset. I found in Aim 2 that gun-free school zones had fewer crimes committed with a firearm than corresponding gun-allowing zones in St. Louis, MO in 2019. There were 13.4% fewer crimes involving a firearm in gun-free school zones, with a confidence interval ranging from 23.6% fewer to 1.8% fewer (p-value: 0.025). Aim 3 determined that the conditional odds of an active shooting in an establishment that was gun-free were 0.375 times the odds of an active shooting in a gun-allowing establishment with a confidence interval ranging from 0.193 to 0.728 (p-value<0.01), suggesting that gun-free zones did not attract active shooters, and may even be preventative. In conclusion, gun-free zones did not appear to increase gun related outcomes and may even be protective against active shootings. Efforts across the United States to repeal laws related to gun-free zones, due to the belief that gun-free zones are targeted for violence, are therefore not backed by data. However, these are the first quantitative studies ever conducted on the effectiveness of gun-free zones, so more research is needed to build on the results of this dissertation.

New York: Columbia University, 2022. 133p.

By Emily Tiry and Arielle Jackson

Gun violence and violent crime more generally impose substantial costs on communities, including in Washington, DC. The Cost of Gun Violence in Washington, DC, project examined research on the broader community-level costs of gun violence on (1) economic indicators such as business activity and the housing market and (2) educational outcomes such as test scores and graduation rates. We also summarized the extent of gun violence, economic indicators, and educational outcomes in Washington, DC, using publicly available data and, to the extent possible, we put the costs in dollar terms. This appendix outlines our methodologies for our “Economic Costs of Gun Violence in Washington, DC” fact sheet and “Educational Costs of Gun Violence: Implications for Washington, DC” brief (Jackson et al. 2022;

Washington, DC: The Urban Institute, 2022. 6p.

By Arielle Jackson, Emily Tiry, Paige S. Thompson, and Jesse Jannetta

Like many cities, Washington, DC, has experienced a spike in gun violence in the past few years. Gun violence and violent crime more generally impose substantial costs on communities. These include direct costs like those for health care for victims and costs for law enforcement and incarceration, but they also include indirect costs such as the effects on business activity and the housing market. Research indicates that gun violence and violent crime can negatively affect educational outcomes as well. Social and economic inequities are often at the root of community gun violence and disproportionately affect Black and Latinx communities, underscoring the importance of addressing these systemic inequities and investing in resources that will reduce gun violence and promote opportunity for young people living in structurally disadvantaged neighborhoods in the District. We summarize research on this topic, situate this evidence in the context of the geography of gun violence and educational outcomes in DC, and describe implications for DC communities

Washington, DC: The Urban Institute, 2022. 12p.

By Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative (N3).

A new research brief from Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative (N3) was just published affirming that Chicago CRED:

works with the highest-risk individuals.

successfully connects them with needed services.

“potentially” reduces their likelihood of being shot or arrested by 50% and 48% respectively. As always, they are cautious about suggesting direct causation, but it is nevertheless encouraging.

The report explicitly mentions that “other outreach-focused programs such as Communities Partnering 4 Peace (CP4P) and READI Chicago find similar results.”

The report also says, “for every one CRED participant, we found more than 20 other individuals with similar risk profiles who were not receiving similar services,” so the case for going to scale is real.

” Chicago CRED is a multifaceted approach to reducing gun violence that strives to create lasting change by working directly with individuals who are most likely to be involved in serious gun violence. Beginning with direct street outreach efforts, CRED invites its participants to engage in a comprehensive intervention that connects this hard-to-reach population to services, including dedicated life coaching, trauma counseling, education, and, ultimately, reliable jobs. CRED launched its efforts in 2016 and operates in communities on Chicago’s South and West Sides. The current study examines the 234 men who entered the CRED program in 2019 from Roseland and West Pullman. All of these participants are Black, the average participant age at intake is roughly 24 years old, and the average level of completed education was 11 years of school. Some 85% of participants reported a personal or familial history of gang/group involvement, 75% reported a criminal record, and 9% reported being a gunshot victim prior to intake.

Chicago: Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative (N3) at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2021. 5p.

By Marisa C. Ross, Erin M. Ochoa, and Andrew V. Papachristos

The past several years have witnessed increased calls for community violence interventions (CVIs) that address firearm violence while centering local expertise and avoiding the criminal legal system. Currently, little evidence exists on CVI effectiveness at the individual level. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of a street outreach-based CVI [Chicago CRED (Create Real Economic Destiny)] on participant involvement in violence. We used a quasiexperimental design with a treatment sample of 324 men recruited by outreach staff from 2016 to 2021 and a balanced comparison sample of 2,500 men from a network of individuals arrested in CRED’s service areas. We conducted a Bayesian survival analysis to evaluate CRED’s effect on individual violence-related outcomes on three levels of treatment: All enrolled participants, a subsample that made it through the initial phase, and those who completed programming. The intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention had a strong favorable effect on the probability of arrest for a violent crime for those completing the program: After 24 mo, CRED alumni experienced an 11.3 percentage point increase in survival rates of arrest for a violent crime relative to their comparisons (or, stated differently, a 73.4% reduction in violent crime arrests). The other two treatment levels experienced nontrivial declines in arrests but did not reach statistical significance. No statistically significant reduction in victimization risk was detected for any of the treatment levels. Results demonstrate that completion of violence intervention programming reduces the likelihood of criminal legal involvement for participants, despite the numerous systemic and environmental factors that impede personal success.

PNAS, Vol. 120 | No. 46, 2023. 8p.

By Guillermo Vázquez del Mercado, Ruggero Scaturro, Jerome Veyret and Alex Goodwin

The illicit trade in arms and ammunition not only is a serious criminal market but also strengthens and expands other illicit economies around the globe, increasing the potential or actual use of violence in the commission of crimes. With weapons recycled from conflicts in the past, illegally produced, diverted from state or private stockpiles, or smuggled (in parts or whole) from areas in which supply is abundant, arms trafficking has become the fourth most prevalent criminal market globally, and is particularly prevalent in the Americas and Africa.1 According to the Small Arms Survey database, global firearms-related deaths have decreased by 30% between 2016 and 2020 (from 3.9 per 100 000 in 2016 to 2.7 per 100 000 in 2020).2 However, the organization also estimated that, as of 2017, there were still 857 million firearms in civilian hands worldwide, of which only 12% were registered.3 These weapons can pose enormous threats to civil society and regional stability. Illicit arms enable organized crime and underpin criminal markets. Firearms trafficking can also have a severe destabilizing effect, as the conflicts in which they are used can fuel others in a region, along with further crime and violence. For example, civil wars in Central America in the late twentieth century led to the availability of weapons in the region multiplying. Many of the 30 000 M-16 rifles and the 260 000 M-67 grenades sent to the Salvadoran authorities by the US government are still in circulation and have been used by the Mara Salvatrucha-13 and Barrio 18 gangs and criminal organizations abroad.4

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2025. 29p.

By David Blake Johnson, Joshua J. Robinson, Daniel Semenza, and Alexi Thompson

We test the effectiveness of several common gun prevalence proxy variables against what are arguably the best measures of gun prevalence: firearm sales and concealed carry permits. With a comprehensive count of gun sales and concealed carry permits (by county and year) in the states of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, we make two main observations: First, gun sales/concealed carry permits are positively correlated with federal firearm licenses (gun dealers) per mile. Second gun sales/concealed carry permits are not significantly positively correlated with federal firearm licenses per capita or the proportion of gun suicides to total suicides. We then discuss why this occurs and the limitations of using legal gun sales as a gun prevalence measure. Last, we show how the competing measures differ in terms of their associations with gun homicide. We find our preferred measure to have a strong positive association with gun homicides while many others do not. Consequently, we advise researchers to use gun dealers as a measure of gun prevalence and specifically in a way that considers markets bleeding over arbitrary lines (e.g., county, city, or neighborhood).

Unpublished Paper, (May 25, 2022), 41p,

By Rod Campbell, Skye Predavec, Alice Grundy

Almost 30 years after the Port Arthur massacre, there are more guns in Australia than ever before, and the Howard Government’s landmark National Firearms Agreement (NFA) is falling short of its stated aims. There is no National Firearms Register and minors can use firearms in every state. This paper outlines the status of the NFA and the number of guns and gun deaths in Australia.

On 28 of April 1996, one man killed 35 people and wounded another 23 with semiautomatic rifles at Port Arthur, Tasmania. It remains the deadliest massacre in modern Australian history.

Just 12 days after the massacre, the Howard Government announced the National Firearms Agreement (NFA), a suite of measures from the federal, state and territory governments designed to strengthen Australia’s gun control laws.

The NFA was reconfirmed by all jurisdictions in 2017, however some of its resolutions remain unimplemented including the creation of the National Firearm Registry. Others have been implemented inconsistently across Australia’s states and territories, such as under 18 firearm use, hampering their effectiveness.

The paper concludes that Australians needs gun laws that live up to the Howard Government’s bravery, and right now Australia does not have them

Canberra: The Australia Institute, 2025. 9p.

By Nicole J. Johnson ,Caterina G. Roman

This study examines changes in gun violence at the census tract level in Philadelphia, PA before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Piecewise generalized linear mixed effects models are used to test the relative impacts of social-structural and demographic factors, police activity, the presence of and proximity to drug markets, and physical incivilities on shooting changes between 2017 and June, 2021. Model results revealed that neighborhood structural characteristics like concentrated disadvantage and racial makeup, as well as proximity to drug markets and police activity were associated with higher shooting rates. Neighborhood drug market activity and police activity significantly predicted changes in shooting rates over time after the onset of COVID-19. This work demonstrates the importance of understanding whether there are unique factors that impact the susceptibility to exogenous shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. The increasing risk of being in a neighborhood with an active drug market during the pandemic suggests efforts related to disrupting drug organizations, or otherwise curbing violence stemming from drug markets, may go a long way towards quelling citywide increases in gun violence.

. PLoS ONE 17(2):, 2022. e0263777

By John R. Lott and Carlisle E. Moody

The FBI tracks active shooting cases—where individuals attempt to kill people in public places, excluding those tied to robberies or gang violence. This study is the first to systematically compare how uniformed police and civilians with concealed handgun permits perform in stopping these attacks. Civilians with permits stopped the attacks more frequently and faced a lower risk of being killed or injured than police. Officers who intervened during the attacks were far more likely to be killed or injured than those who apprehended the attackers later. We also provide evidence that these numbers significantly underestimate the advantages of civilians over officers in stopping these attacks. We explore the implications of two possible identification problems. Lott, John R. and Moody, Carlisle E., Do Armed Civilians Stop Active Shooters More Effectively Than Uniformed Police?

Salt Lake City, UT: Crime Prevention Research Center, 2025. 36p.

By John J. Donohu, Samuel V. Cai, Matthew V. Bondy, Philip J. Cook

While the recent state panel data literature has broadly concluded that “right-to-carry” (RTC) concealed handgun regimes increase violent crime, there is little empirical evidence on the precise mechanisms that drive this increase. Using data from 217 US cities, we find that the effect of RTC on violent crime is concentrated to large urban centers. In cities with an average population of over 250,000 between 1979 and 2019, we find that the introduction of RTC increases violent crime by 20 percent. We then present novel estimates that RTC increases gun theft by 50 percent and lowers violent crime clearance rates by 9 percent in these large cities. Leveraging city-level heterogeneity in RTC-induced violent crime effects, we demonstrate that these two mechanisms explain a substantial portion of the RTC-induced increase in violent crime.

Working Paper 30190, 2023, 21p.

By John R. Lott, and John E Whitley

It is frequently assumed that safe storage gun laws reduce accidental gun deaths and total suicides, while the possible impact on crime rates are ignored. However, given existing work on the adverse impact of other safety laws, such as safety caps for storing medicine, even the very plausible assumption of reduced accidental gun deaths cannot be taken for granted. Our paper analyzes both state and county data spanning nearly twenty years, and we find no support that safe storage laws reduce either juvenile accidental gun deaths or suicides. Instead, these storage requirements appear to impair people?s ability to use guns defensively. Because accidental shooters also tend to be the ones most likely to violate the new law, safe storage laws increase violent and property crimes against low risk citizens with no observable offsetting benefit in terms of reduced accidents or suicides. During the first five full years after the passage of the safe storage laws, the group of fifteen states that adopted these laws faced an annual average increase of over 300 more murders, 3,860 more rapes, 24,650 more robberies, and over 25,000 more aggravated assaults. On average, the annual costs borne by victims averaged over $2.6 billion as a result of lost productivity, out-of-pocket expenses, medical bills, and property losses.

Yale Law School, Law & Economics Working Paper No. 237, 72p.

By Carlisle E. Moody, John R. Lott

A review of the literature studying the effect of right-to-carry laws shows that the weight of evidence indicates that such laws reduced violent crime. However, more recent studies, using more recent data, tend to find that these laws cause increases in various kinds of violent crime, raising the possibility that circumstances have changed since 2000, causing these laws to become detrimental. We suggest that these recent studies, which do not use all the available data, are seriously compromised because they compare states that only recently have adopted right-to-carry laws with states that have had these laws for many years, instead of comparing against states with more restrictive laws. Early adopting states experienced relatively large reductions in crime corresponding to large increases in the number of right-to-carry permits. Late adopting states passed rules making it difficult to obtain permits and exercise the right to carry concealed weapons. Ignoring the fact that these late adopting states with stricter rules on obtaining permits issue relatively few permits can produce perverse results where coefficients imply an increase in crime even though the opposite is true. We demonstrate this effect with a simple statistical test.

Academia Letters, February 2022, 6p.