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Terrorism-Domestic-International-Radicalization-War-Weapons-Trafficking-Crime-Mass Shootings

Posts in Crime
How do mass shootings shape the social media discourse on guns in the US Congress? Causal discovery and topic modeling

By Dmytro Bukhanevych, Rayan Succar, Maurizio Porfiri

Social media platforms have become a key tool for politicians to signal their policy positions and communicate about issues that are salient to them and their constituency. One such issue is gun violence. Grounded in framing and issue-attention cycle theories, this paper analyzes the response of members of the United States (US) Congress to mass shootings on social media. We analyzed 785,881 gun-related tweets from members of the 117th US Congress on X (formerly Twitter) between January 2021 and January 2023. We used logistic regression to model the main effects, implemented the PCMCI+ algorithm for causal discovery, and applied latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling to evaluate the substantive differences between gun-related tweets from the two parties. Higher fatality counts were positively correlated with the probability of gun-related tweets by Congress members (OR=1.13, 95% CI=[1.12, 1.15], p < 0.001). A causal link was detected between mass shootings and subsequent legislators’ activity on X (ρ=0.122, p=0.001). Democrats were more likely to tweet about guns following mass shootings than Republicans (OR=3.60, 95% CI=[3.03, 4.28], p < 0.001), with qualitative differences in tweet substance between parties (community, families, victims, and mass shootings themselves are recurrent topics for Democrats, while Second Amendment rights and crime are frequent for Republicans). The paper suggests that while mass shootings elevate the level of discussion on guns in Congress, they trigger different reactions depending on party affiliation. Congress members tend to focus on topics aligned with party issues, likely reducing the opportunity for policy-making alignmen

PLOS Global Public Health, Dec. 2025.

The Second Amendment on Board: Public and Private Historical Traditions of Firearm Regulation

By Joshua Hochman

 In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, the Supreme Court reaffirmed that laws prohibiting the carrying of firearms in sensitive places were presumptively constitutional. Since Bruen, several states and the District of Columbia have defended their sensitive-place laws by analogizing to historical statutes regulating firearms in other places, like schools and government buildings. Many judges, scholars, and litigants appear to have assumed that only statutescan count as evidence of the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. This Note is the first expansive account since Bruen to challenge this assumption. It argues that courts should consider sources of analogical precedent outside of statutory lawmaking when applying the Court’s Second Amendment jurisprudence. Taking public transportation as a case study, the Note surveys rules and regulations promulgated by railroad corporations in the nineteenth century and argues that these sources reveal a historical tradition of regulating firearm carriage on public transportation. Bruen permits courts to engage in more nuanced analogical reasoning when dealing with unprecedented concerns or dramatic changes. One such change is the shift in state capacity that has placed sites that were privately or quasi-publicly operated before the twentieth century under public control in the twenty-first century. As in the case of schools, which the Court has already deemed sensitive, a substantial portion of the nation’s transportation infrastructure in the nineteenth century was not entirely publicly owned and operated. For this reason, courts should consider evidence of historical firearm regulations enacted not just by legislatures but by quasi-public or private corporations. This case study instructs that courts and litigants can best honor Bruen’s history-based test by considering all of the nation’s history of firearm regulation.

Yale Law Review,  133:1676 2024

Ghost Guns, Branded Violence: New Trends in the Weapons Seizures Markings

By Sofia Molina, Andrei Serbin Pont

The enduring proliferation of illicit Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) remains a critical factor in the security and stability challenges facing Latin America. These armaments fuel organized crime, exacerbate violence, and empower non-state armed actors, thereby undermining governance and public safety. The foundational analysis presented by Andrei Serbin Pont and Alex Miller in the "Small Arms and Light Weapons Black Markets in Latin America" story map established a comprehensive framework for understanding these dynamics (Serbin Pont & Miller, 2022). This report builds upon that essential work, leveraging a new database of open-source seizure incidents to provide a current and granular update on the state of the illicit arms market.

The data analyzed, derived from police operations and journalistic reports compiled in the SALW dashboard from Brazil, Argentina, Panama, and Guatemala, reveals a market that is not only robust but also increasingly sophisticated and adaptive. A rigorous examination of the new dataset uncovers two significant phenomena that represent an evolution in the illicit arms trade. First, there is a proliferation of fake Colt markings on assault rifles. Second, the presence of other specific markings such as the "Punisher" skull, on seized firearms introduces another layer of analysis, indicating that weapons are not merely tools of violence but are also powerful symbols of criminal identity and ideology.

Miami: Florida International University, 2025. 9p.

Cybersecurity Expert Perspectives on Data Thieves’ Actions in Digital Environments: Potential Refinements for Routine Activity Theory

By Renushka Madarie, Marleen Weulen Kranenbarg&Christianne de Poot


Previous quantitative studies applying Routine Activity Theory (RAT) to cybercrime victimization produced mixed results. Through semi-structured interviews with cybersecurity experts, the current study aims to qualitatively reevaluate the applicability of RAT to cyber-dependent crime, specifically data theft from organizations. An in-depth assessment of environmental factors appearing to affect data thieves’ actions resulted in concrete operationalizations of theoretical concepts. Importantly, we highlight the distinction between target selection and strategic choices made during the attack. Furthermore, RAT appeared to be as relevant, if not more, for explaining offender actions during an attack as for the initial convergence of offenders and digital targets.


DEVIANT BEHAVIOR 2025

Rational Choice on a Hacker Forum: The Effect of Risk and Reward Cues on Target Selection for Account Hijacking

By Stibbe, D., Ruiter, S., Steenbeek, W., & Moneva, A.

This online field experiment tested how risk and reward cues in (fake) account credential ads on a hacker forum influence target selection for account hijacking. High-risk posts, warning of account monitoring, received fewer views, while high-reward posts, promising benefits, attracted more. An unexpected law enforcement operation targeting an illicit marketplace created a natural experiment, triggering increased removals of high-risk posts by forum administrators, which slowed over time. These findings suggest hacker forum users respond rationally to risk and reward cues in target selection, and forum administrators adapt their moderation efforts in response to external threats to reduce perceived risk.

DEVIANT BEHAVIOR 2025, VOL. 46, NO. 9, 1172–1193

Assessing Cyberattacks in Response to Police Actions in Physical Space

By Daniella J. Ferrante & Thomas J. Holt

There is little research considering the ways that local events in physical space trigger responses from ideological groups in online spaces. This study attempted to address this gap in the literature through the analysis of information from the Extremist Cybercrime Database (ECCD), a unique open-source repository of cyberattacks performed against U.S. targets from 1998to 2020. This qualitative study focused on the language used during cyber-attacks against police agencies by the hacker collective Anonymous.Evidence suggested that the attackers’ language reflected values observed in the hacker subculture to justify their attacks and incorporated negative language regarding law enforcement. This was particularly evident in cases of police excessive use of force against minority groups and emphasized theneed for public protest and social change.
DEVIANT BEHAVIOR 2025, VOL. 46, NO. 9, 1125–1

Social Opportunity Structures in Hacktivism: Exploring Online and Offline Social Ties and the Role of Offender Convergence Settings in Hacktivist Networks 

 By Marco Romagna & Rutger Erik Leukfeldt  

  Hacktivism represents the promotion in the cyber landscape of ideologically motivated agendas using hacking techniques. Despite research on the topic has provided some clues on how hacktivist networks develop, the processes behind their evolution remain mostly unknown. This gap in the literature prompted us to research the role of online/offline social relationships and of the offender convergence settings in the creation, recruitment process and development of hacktivist networks. This study is based on 30 interviews with hacktivists, and it uses the social opportunity structures framework to analyze the development of 21 hacktivist networks. The results show that said networks can be divided in sub-categories based on the type of connections used to create them. Online social relationships and online convergence settings (particularly social media platforms and IRC channels) seem to play a key role in the development of hacktivist networks, while offline contacts are limited. For the recruitment process, hacktivists use comparable strategies to any organization, but three different categories were identified when discussing

VICTIMS & OFFENDERS Published online: 01 Jul 2024

Becoming a hacktivist. Examining the motivations and the processes that prompt an individual to engage in hacktivism

By Marco Romagna & Rutger E. Leukfeldt

Hacktivism is a rising phenomenon in the cyber landscape combining elements of the hacking subculture with ideologically motivated agendas inspired both by traditional activism and by new elements of the digital culture. Despite several studies on the topic, it is still not completely clear what motivates an individual to engage in this type of collective action and if the reasons can be compared to what is already known for more traditional forms of social protests. Taking a socio-psychological approach, this study uses the social identity model of collective action (SIMCA) as a theoretical lens to analyze hacktivists’ motives and engagement process. The analysis is based on 28 semi-structured interviews, and it considers the four main elements of the model, naming: morality, social identity, perceived injustice and perceived efficacy. The violation of moral values seems to be the main trigger to participate in the action, while social identity plays an important role both as the second step in the engagement process and as a bridge with the other elements of the model. The results seem to be in line with what is already known for other forms of social protests, although some elements of the model provide new means of interpretation.

JOURNAL OF CRIME AND JUSTICE 2024, VOL. 47, NO. 4, 511–529

2025 Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Risks in Canada

By Canada. Minister of Finance and National Revenue,

Canada has a robust Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorist Financing (AML/ATF) Regime that contributes to its efforts to combat transnational organized crime and is a key element of its counter-terrorism strategy. It comprises 13 federal departments and agencies with policy, regulatory, intelligence, and enforcement mandates. The federal Regime works with provincial and municipal counterparts and over 38,000 Canadian businesses with reporting obligations under the Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act (PCMLTFA), known as reporting entities, to prevent, detect, and disrupt financial crime.

An accurate, nuanced, and up-to-date understanding of risks, informed by an assessment of money laundering and terrorist financing threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, is the foundation for applying a risk-based approach to combatting these financial crimes in Canada. This includes balancing priorities of protecting the integrity of Canada's financial system and the safety and security of Canadians, respecting privacy and other rights of people in Canada, and mitigating regulatory burden and unintended consequences that may be faced by industry and the clients to whom they provide services.

The 2025 Assessment of Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing Risks in Canada is a comprehensive assessment of the most pressing money laundering and terrorist financing threats and vulnerabilities in Canada. It assesses inherent risks and discusses the mitigation measures put in place to respond to them. Findings are informed through consultations with federal government authorities and external stakeholders, including provincial and territorial governments, the private sector, non-profit organizations, and international partners.

The purpose of this report is to support evidence-based policymaking, resource allocation, and priority setting for public authorities, and to support private sector businesses and non-government organizations to apply focused and proportionate measures to mitigate risks.

Ottawa: Canada. Department of Finance 2025. 126p.

Why We Went To War

By Newton D. Baker, Edited by Ciolin Heston

Newton Diehl Baker’s Why We Went to War, published in 1921, is one of the most important contemporary American explanations of the nation’s entry into the First World War. Baker, who served as Secretary of War from 1916 to 1921 under President Woodrow Wilson, occupied a unique position at the very center of America’s wartime transformation. Once known as a progressive mayor of Cleveland and a disciple of Wilsonian reform, Baker became, almost overnight, the chief administrator responsible for raising, training, and mobilizing an army that grew from a modest peacetime force into one of the most formidable fighting powers of the modern age. His book represents both a justification and a reflection—part political defense, part historical testimony—on why the United States took the fateful step of joining a conflict from which it had long sought to remain apart.

For modern readers, Why We Went to War should be approached both as a primary document and as an act of persuasion. Baker was not an impartial historian; he was a participant and advocate, a defender of Wilsonian ideals at a moment when those ideals were under attack. His words reveal not only the official reasoning of the Wilson administration but also the mindset of a generation of progressives who believed that the United States, through sacrifice and leadership, could help reorder the world toward democracy and peace.

In the end, Baker’s book is as much about America’s identity as about the Great War. It reflects a moment when the nation stood at the crossroads between its traditional reluctance to become entangled in European affairs and its emerging role as a world power. To understand why the United States entered World War I is to understand not only the international provocations of the time but also the ideals, anxieties, and ambitions of a nation coming of age on the world stage.

Read-Me.Org Inc. New York-Philadelphia-Australia. 2025. p. 165.

The Chronicle Of The Discovery And Conquest Of Guinea: Volumes 1 & 2

By Gomes Eannes De Azurara (Author), Colin Heston (Editor), Raymond Beazley (Translator)

The Chronicle of the Discovery and Conquest of Guinea is one of the most important early historical sources on the European Age of Discovery. Written in the mid-fifteenth century by Gomes Eannes de Zurara, the royal chronicler of Portugal, the work offers a detailed and vivid narrative of Prince Henry the Navigator’s sponsorship of voyages along the West African coast. Zurara’s chronicle records the systematic exploration of the Atlantic islands and the African shoreline, the capture and enslavement of Africans, and the establishment of the Portuguese presence south of Cape Bojador — a turning point that opened the way for European maritime expansion.

This English edition, translated and edited by historian Charles Raymond Beazley and lusitanist Edgar Prestage for the Hakluyt Society (published 1896–1899), makes Zurara’s text accessible to a modern audience. Their careful translation preserves the rich detail of the original, while their scholarly introduction and notes provide historical context about fifteenth-century Portugal, Prince Henry’s motives, and the wider significance of these early voyages.

Part narrative history, part celebration of Portuguese royal ambition, the chronicle reveals both the triumphs and moral ambiguities of the early encounters between Europe and Africa. It remains an essential source for historians of maritime exploration, Atlantic slavery, and global contact in the late Middle Ages.
This version has been carefully edited, removing unnecessary endnotes, footnotes and other distracting content that distract from a pleasant reading experience.

Read-Me.Org Inc. New York-Philadelphia-Australia. 2025. 267p.

Justice in War-Time

By Bertrand Russell . Introduction by Colin Heston.

This collection of essays is not merely a pacifist manifesto; it is a profound philosophical inquiry into the nature of justice, the psychology of conflict, and the responsibilities of individuals—especially thinkers and educators—in times of national crisis. Russell, a mathematician and philosopher by training, brings to bear his analytical precision and moral clarity in dissecting the arguments used to legitimize war. His opposition to World War I was not rooted in naïve idealism but in a deep conviction that war, particularly modern industrial war, represents a failure of reason and humanity.

The book opens with an appeal to the intellectuals of Europe, urging them to resist the tide of militarism and to uphold the values of truth and justice even when doing so is unpopular or dangerous. Russell believed that intellectuals had a duty to question the narratives presented by their governments and to advocate for peace, not as a passive withdrawal but as an active moral stance. This appeal is followed by essays such as “The Ethics of War,” “War and Non-Resistance,” and “Why Nations Love War,” each of which explores different dimensions of the war impulse—from philosophical arguments to psychological and sociological observations.

One of the most striking aspects of Justice in War-time is Russell’s willingness to confront uncomfortable truths. He examines the role of imperialism, economic interests, and historical rivalries in fueling conflict, and he critiques the Entente policy and the diplomatic maneuvers that led to war. His essay “The Danger to Civilization” warns of the long-term consequences of war on democratic institutions, civil liberties, and the moral fabric of society.

In the broader context of Russell’s life and work, Justice in War-time marks a pivotal moment. It reflects his transition from a primarily academic philosopher to a public intellectual deeply engaged with the political and ethical issues of his time. The book also foreshadows themes that would recur in his later writings on peace, nuclear disarmament, and civil liberties.

Today, Justice in War-time remains a powerful reminder of the importance of moral courage and intellectual integrity. In an age where war continues to be justified through appeals to patriotism, security, and national interest, Russell’s essays challenge us to ask deeper questions: What is justice? Who benefits from war? And what is the role of the individual in resisting injustice?

Read-Me.Org Inc. New York-Philadelphia-Australia. 2025. 191p.

Illicit Financing in Afghanistan: Methods, mechanisms, and threat-agnostic disruption opportunities

By Jessica Davis

Illicit actors in Afghanistan, including drug traffickers, warlords, terrorist groups, and even former government officials, exploit the country to achieve their own political and economic objectives. Historical and contemporary sources demonstrate that there are patterns in how these actors raise, manage, store, move, and obscure money. This paper provides a historical and contemporary overview of illicit financing activities in Afghanistan. It uses a terrorist financing framework to explain the various mechanisms involved in how illicit actors raise, use, move, store, manage, and obscure their funds. Specific jurisdictions used for illicit finance and global financial vulnerabilities that illicit actors with a nexus to Afghanistan exploit in their financial activities are discussed, outlining the threat-agnostic capabilities that could tackle some of these illicit financial challenges.

To raise funds, illicit actors engage in the production and trafficking of narcotics, taxation and extortion activities, illegal mining and timber production, and any other activities that can generate revenues. Depending on the actor in question, management of the acquired funds might be centralised, within the purview of a financial head, or decentralised, with control vested within several stakeholders. Illicit actors store some of their funds in cash within Afghanistan and use hawalas and banks to both store and transfer wealth out of the country. Since the Taliban takeover, international sanctions have largely ended the ability of banks to transact with most aspects of the global financial sector, with the exception of regional banking relationships that remain intact. Therefore, in addition to hawalas, common methods of moving money out of Afghanistan include bulk cash couriers, the transfer of precious metals and stones, and trade-based money laundering schemes. Wealth is moved out of Afghanistan to several key jurisdictions. Much of it makes its way to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where funds are invested in businesses and real estate. Funds are also moved to Pakistan, Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran and other neighbouring or proximate countries.

The stability of illicit financing mechanisms over time and across illicit actors presents opportunities for detection and disruption. However, this also applies to limitations of disruption opportunities. Since illicit actors in Afghanistan raise most of their funds within the country, there are few opportunities to disrupt internal Afghan revenue sources in the post-August 2021 context. As such, other detection and disruption opportunities that can be used to combat illicit financing with a nexus to Afghanistan must be examined. The policy options elaborated in this report include: enhancing the monitoring of aid and donor funding entering the country, facilitating the adoption of foreign asset and beneficial ownership tracing, introducing reforms to the hawala and banking sectors, and addressing deficiencies in international sanctions regimes.

A regionally coordinated policy approach to counter illicit financing from Afghanistan can reduce the ability of illicit actors to access their wealth and fund their activities. However, without access to a cooperative government in Afghanistan, there are limits to what can be achieved. Nonetheless, many of the policy and disruption opportunities available to counter illicit Afghan finance also serve to strengthen the integrity of the global financial system, address existing policy gaps in other jurisdictions, and can generally serve to enhance international cooperation on counter-illicit financing.

SOC ACE Research Paper No 11.

Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham, 2022. 32p.

Where are the Guns? Evaluating Gun Prevalence Measures and Their Connection with Homicides using Gun Sales Data

By David Blake Johnson, Joshua J. Robinson, Daniel Semenza, and Alexi Thompson

We test the effectiveness of several common gun prevalence proxy variables against what are arguably the best measures of gun prevalence: firearm sales and concealed carry permits. With a comprehensive count of gun sales and concealed carry permits (by county and year) in the states of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, we make two main observations: First, gun sales/concealed carry permits are positively correlated with federal firearm licenses (gun dealers) per mile. Second gun sales/concealed carry permits are not significantly positively correlated with federal firearm licenses per capita or the proportion of gun suicides to total suicides. We then discuss why this occurs and the limitations of using legal gun sales as a gun prevalence measure. Last, we show how the competing measures differ in terms of their associations with gun homicide. We find our preferred measure to have a strong positive association with gun homicides while many others do not. Consequently, we advise researchers to use gun dealers as a measure of gun prevalence and specifically in a way that considers markets bleeding over arbitrary lines (e.g., county, city, or neighborhood).

Unpublished Paper, (May 25, 2022), 41p,