Evaluating the Texas Risk Assessment System (TRAS) Predictors of Revocation and Early Release in Adult Felony Probation

By Sarah A. El Sayeda, Carley R. Sheltonb, and Michael F. TenEyck

Although much is known about recidivism risk, less is known about factors predicting early release. The current study analyses a sample of 2,070 adult felony probation clients to see if offense characteristics, domains from the Texas Risk Assessment System (TRAS), and demographic variables impact both revocation and successful early release. Results revealed that predictors of early release mirrored those of revocation with one exception—race. Specifically, Black clients were 27% less likely to be granted early release. The findings highlight the TRAS is an effective tool to help mitigate bias for revocation of probation but not for granting early release.