By Steven Dudley, et al.

Although traditional synthetic opioid strongholds like the United States and Canada appear to be experiencing a stabilization of their illicit fentanyl market—evidenced by a historic reduction in overdose deaths 1—synthetic opioids continue to expand across the globe, creating widespread health and security concerns. Existing explanations for the rise and stabilization of these markets focus on economic incentives, supply-chain disruption, precursor controls, consumption patterns, and public-health interventions. But the role of organized crime in structuring retail distribution has been largely overlooked. The experience of Mexico’s northern border illustrates that local criminal governance can be a decisive factor in determining where and how new drug markets take root. Fentanyl, for example, has quietly reshaped drug markets in Mexico and upended some widely held assumptions of how larger criminal groups interact with these markets. As local criminal organizations became major producers and exporters of the synthetic opioid to the United States, domestic consumption also emerged in key trafficking corridors. In Tijuana and Mexicali in Baja California, Hermosillo and Nogales in Sonora, and Ciudad Juárez in Chihuahua, the transnational fentanyl economy has taken root locally, generating unprecedented public health and security pressures. This expansion, however, has been uneven, and the criminal actors who control local drug economies are far from monolithic. Across northern Mexico, fragmented local factions—sometimes linked to larger organizations, sometimes operating with considerable autonomy—determine what reaches consumers and under what conditions. Retail fentanyl markets have therefore expanded not simply in response to demand or price signals, but according to thestrategic decisions of local criminal groups. In Baja California, these groups actively promoted fentanyl sales, enabling the market to consolidate. In Sonoran cities and Ciudad Juárez, they restricted distribution, confining consumption to specific user niches.Overall, the impact on the ground has been substantial. The introduction of fentanyl triggered waves of overdose deaths and serious health effects among users. Although there are signs that the crisis may have stabilized in some areas, the risks persist, and the problem remains underestimated in official statistics, limiting the effectiveness of institutional responses that are already ill-equipped to address it. This report aims to provide a deeper understanding of this issue. It examines fentanyl consumption dynamics in the cities mentioned, traces the evolution of the market, and outlines the distribution networks that sustain it. Additionally, it analyzes the models of criminal control over local drug markets and assesses the state’s response to date. A central question running through the analysis is why fentanyl did not spread uniformly across these cities and what role local criminal structures played in that divergence.

Washington DC: Insight Crime, 2026. 66p.

By OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL OF THE NEBRASKA CORRECTIONAL SYSTEM; Doug Koebernick, Inspector General Zach Pluhacek, Assistant Inspector General

This report by the Office of Inspector General of the Nebraska Correctional System (OIG) explores five areas of interest and/or concern related to mental health services within Nebraska Department of Correctional Services (NDCS) facilities. The findings and recommendations in this report resulted from more than a year of examination of the NDCS mental health system. This work began in early 2024, after NDCS moved to consolidate almost all of its inpatient mental health beds for men from across the system into the Reception and Treatment Center (RTC) in Lincoln. The change – which was directed by NDCS administration, not mental health officials – prompted complaints from patients and their advocates about the living conditions and how this disruption had impacted their mental health. Through interactions with more patients and providers, additional matters came to the OIG’s attention. Although not an exhaustive list, the five topics addressed in this report were selected based on 1) how frequently they were mentioned by people in the system, including patients and staff; 2) the significance of their impact on the system; and 3) their relevance to the Legislature, based on existing statutes and past legislative engagements in this area. These five topics are as follows: 1. Staffing. NDCS mental health services are in a longstanding staffing crisis, which appear more significant than the staffing challenges facing the overall behavioral health industry, including other state-run institutions. However, NDCS appears to be making some progress in this area. 2. Living conditions. The OIG fielded a variety of complaints about the living conditions in NDCS mental health units, including the use of custody restraints, limited out-of-cell time, and quality of facilities. Some of these conditions may be improving with new facilities, management changes and better custody/security staffing, but concerns remain. 3. Restrictive housing for seriously mentally ill individuals. State statute prohibits placing seriously mentally ill people in longer-term restrictive housing. However, NDCS’ interpretation and implementation of statute results in many people with serious mental illnesses being placed in these settings, anyway. 4. Discharge review. State statute also requires NDCS to have “evidence-based criteria” for screening people nearing release who are mentally ill and dangerous and may require civil commitment. However, it is unclear whether an evidence-based tool even exists for such a purpose. 5. Programming for high-risk individuals. There is a general lack of structured, clinical treatment programming available for individuals in high-security settings. NDCS terminated its version of the Violence Reduction Program (VRP), intended for those at high risk for violence, in early 2024 and has yet to identify a replacement. More specific findings are included in each section of this report. The report concludes with a summary of these findings, as well as recommendations for NDCS and the Legislature to consider. The OIG appreciates the efforts of NDCS mental health providers, administrators, and others involved in this area of the correctional system. Although this report provides a broad (and, hopefully, instructive) look at NDCS mental health services, it is not intended to serve as a comprehensive review. It is hoped that these findings and recommendations will help further the Department’s own efforts at improving this system as well as the Legislature’s role in assisting and guiding that process through policy.

By Stephen Koppel & René Ropac

The current study isolates the effect of what is arguably the most consequential bail reform provision: eliminating the option to set bail or detain people for most misdemeanor and nonviolent felony charges. The study uses what is known as a “difference-in-differences” causal design—comparing the change in re-arrest rates from before to after initial bail reform implementation among charges seeing the elimination of bail versus charges remaining legally eligible for bail.

What Did We Find?

• Pretrial Recidivism: During the brief pretrial period (capped at 6 months for all cases), eliminating bail had no overall effect on recidivism. However, recidivism increased among a small high-risk group with a pending case.

• Two-Year Recidivism: Over a longer two-year follow-up—including the period both before and after a case disposition—results grew more favorable to bail reform. Charges seeing the elimination of bail had significantly lower felony re-arrest rates than charges still exposed to bail and detention. In addition, there was no longer evidence of a recidivism increase for the “high-risk” subgroup (or any other subgroup).

What's the Upshot?

Our latest study adds to a growing body of research analyzing the effects of New York’s bail reform on public safety. Short-term recidivism increases appear limited to a small high-risk subgroup, with the current study indicating that such increases were no longer present when extending the follow-up period to two years. 

Meanwhile, considering all five of DCJ’s recidivism studies, a pattern emerges that, overall, expanding pretrial release under bail reform reduced recidivism in New York City—especially over a long-term 50-month tracking period—while having no clear effect in suburban and upstate regions. Each prior DCJ study (two in New York City, one outside the City, and a statewide study released last month) reported these overall effects, while adding more nuanced results for key subgroups of interest.

By Alabama Appleseed

One of Five Incarcerated Alabamians is Serving a Life Sentence

When the Alabama Department of Corrections begins filling up the most expensive prison ever built in the United States, a sprawling $1.2 billion complex in Elmore County, the prison will not come close to housing only the prisoners serving life sentences. This mega prison will have a capacity of 4,000. Yet, more than 6,520 individuals are serving sentences of life with parole, life without parole, or virtual life. Lifers alone could fill the new prison to overflowing, and approximately 15,500 people would remain housed in the violent, dilapidated, understaffed prisons that have the state spending tens of millions in legal fees fighting multiple federal lawsuits while six years of unconstitutional brutality persists.

Alabama relies on long sentences at a higher rate than most of the United States with nearly one in five prisoners serving life sentences. Nationwide, the average is one in seven. A growing body of research shows that incarcerating people for these kinds of extreme sentences is generally unnecessary for public safety because it ignores the irrefutable truth that most people age out of criminality.

Incarcerating older people, many of whom are too feeble to do harm, drains resources that could be devoted to crime prevention or solving crimes, yet laws and parole practices in Alabama have failed to adjust accordingly, as this report will show. 

By Nicolas Sarullo .Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tatyana Deryugina,James Hodson ,Ilona Sologoub, Anastassia Fedyk

Using household survey data on expenditures and incomes, we construct an objective measure of corruption in the public sector for a broad spectrum of countries. Specifically, we focus on the consumption-income gap for public sector workers relative to private sector workers to gauge the extent of hidden income (bribes) in the government. After validating our data and documenting properties of the consumption-income gap, we compare our measure with popular corruption perception indices. We find that i) the relationship between our measure and the alternatives is nonlinear; ii) available indices appear to be only weakly (and sometimes “wrongly”) correlated with the consumption income gap at high frequencies; iii) the available indices appear to have a low weight on the relative consumption-income gap in the public sector.

By Elisabetta Calabresi and Núria Rodríguez-Planas

The chapter reviews the economic literature on intimate partner violence (IPV), a widespread human rights violation affecting nearly one in three women globally and generating significant societal costs. It focuses on the relationship between various dimensions of female empowerment and IPV. The chapter begins by outlining key theoretical frameworks—including household bargaining, instrumental violence, male backlash, and exposure theories—as well as the main data sources used to study IPV. It then reviews empirical evidence on how factors shaping female empowerment at the individual, relationship, community, and societal levels influence IPV outcomes. Central themes include labor market dynamics, education, income shocks, family formation, legal frameworks, institutional access, and gender norms. The chapter also considers how these factors interact across levels and discusses additional drivers of IPV not directly linked to female empowerment. The goal is to provide an overview of causal evidence from the economic literature on IPV while emphasizing its complexity and the importance of a context-specific, intersectional approach to both its analysis and prevention.

By Tássio Franchi

The text discusses, in an exploratory way, how the environmental issue related to the Brazilian Amazon attracts international attention and potentially serves as a mechanism of external constraint in Brazil’s internal affairs. Complaints of environmental crimes and crimes against indigenous peoples are debated in the international political environment, without considering Brazilian sovereignty on these and other topics. In some cases, such debates are used, as pretexts, to halt negotiations of trade agreements beneficial to the country. In summary, the text explores the concept of national sovereignty in the face of global pressures and the impacts of international agendas on Brazilian government action, pointing out that there are complexities and nuances of this geopolitical interaction, in addition to the common good of environmental preservation or the protection of indigenous peoples. 

By

Sara Valdebenito, Hannah Gaffney, Maria Jose Arosemena-Burbano, Sydney Hitchcock, Darrick Jolliffe, Alex Sutherland

School exclusion—commonly referred to as suspension—is a disciplinary response employed by school authorities to address student misbehaviour. Typically, it involves temporary removal from regular teaching or, in more serious cases, complete removal from the school premises. A substantial body of research has associated exclusion with adverse developmental outcomes. In response, various school-based interventions have been developed to reduce exclusion rates. While some programmes have shown promising effects, the evidence on their effectiveness remains inconclusive. This mixed-methods systematic review and multi-level meta-analysis updates the previous review by Valdebenito et al. (2018), which included literature published between 1980 and 2015. The present update extends the evidence base by including studies until 2022. The primary aim of this review was to assess the effectiveness of school-based interventions in reducing disciplinary exclusions, with secondary aims focused on related behavioural outcomes including conduct problems, delinquency, and substance use. Systematic searches conducted between November and December 2022 yielded over 11,000 references for quantitative studies. Following title and abstract screening, 777 records were reviewed at full text by two independent coders. Thirty-two studies met the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis, comprising 2765 effect sizes from 67 primary evaluations (1980–2022) and representing approximately 394,242 students. Meta-analysis was conducted using a multilevel random-effects model with robust variance estimation to account for the nested structure of the data. Quantitative impact evaluations were eligible if they used a randomised controlled or quasi-experimental design, included both a control group and pre/post-test data, and used statistical methods to minimise selection bias (e.g., propensity score matching or matched cohort design). Studies were excluded if they exhibited substantial baseline differences between treatment and control groups. The qualitative synthesis explored implementation barriers and facilitators based on nine UK-based process evaluations, identified through searches completed in September 2023. Process evaluations were included if they focused on the perceptions of stakeholders—teachers, students, or school leadership—within UK schools. Data collection followed two stages: initial selection based on titles, abstracts, and keywords, followed by full-text review. Two independent coders applied inclusion criteria, extracted data, and resolved discrepancies with the principal investigators. All steps were documented to inform the PRISMA flow chart. To evaluate interventions reducing school exclusions, we conducted a multilevel meta-analysis using robust variance estimation. We explored heterogeneity via meta-regression (e.g., gender, intervention type), conducted sensitivity analyses for outliers and correlation structures, and assessed quality data using the EPOC, ROBIN-I and CASP checklist for methodological quality. Findings indicated that school-based interventions were associated with a small but statistically significant reduction in school exclusion (standardised mean difference [SMD] = 0.104; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.17; p < 0.001). Compared with the original 2018 review, which reported a slightly larger effect size, this update benefits from a broader evidence base and more advanced statistical modelling. However, the results for secondary behavioural outcomes were more limited: effects on conduct problems and delinquency were negligible or non-significant, and the impact on substance use was small and not statistically significant. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane EPOC 2 tool (Higgins and Green 2011) for randomised controlled trials and ROBINS-I (Sterne et al. 2016) for quasi-experimental designs. Randomised studies generally exhibited lower risk of bias, while quasi-experimental studies showed greater variability in quality. Four major themes emerged from the analysis. First, intervention format mattered: flexible, collaborative, and well-structured interventions facilitated implementation, while outdated materials or content misaligned with local context impeded delivery. Second, consistency in school policies and practice enabled smoother implementation, whereas inconsistency acted as a barrier. Third, staff buy-in—particularly among senior leaders—was essential for successful implementation, although resistance from more experienced staff was noted. Finally, perceived effectiveness played a motivational role: visible improvements in pupil behaviour supported continued engagement with the intervention. In summary, the updated review finds that school-based interventions can modestly but significantly reduce school exclusions. While more serious disciplinary sanctions such as permanent exclusions and out-of-school suspensions appear less responsive, in-school exclusion shows greater potential for reduction. Impacts on other behavioural outcomes remain limited. These findings suggest that targeted, context-sensitive interventions supported by strong implementation strategies and whole-school engagement are most likely to achieve sustained reductions in school exclusion.

By Sarah A. El Sayeda, Carley R. Sheltonb, and Michael F. TenEyck

Although much is known about recidivism risk, less is known about factors predicting early release. The current study analyses a sample of 2,070 adult felony probation clients to see if offense characteristics, domains from the Texas Risk Assessment System (TRAS), and demographic variables impact both revocation and successful early release. Results revealed that predictors of early release mirrored those of revocation with one exception—race. Specifically, Black clients were 27% less likely to be granted early release. The findings highlight the TRAS is an effective tool to help mitigate bias for revocation of probation but not for granting early release.

By

María Fernanda Rodríguez, Nicolás Espejo Yaksic

The IBA assumed the challenge of contributing to a profound and urgent transformation, under the conviction that protecting the rights of children is not only a legal and ethical obligation, but also an essential investment in strengthening the rule of law.

As such, this report highlights existing challenges as well as good practices and proposes a roadmap to advance toward a child-centered justice system, as part of the commitment to leave no one behind within the framework of the 2030 Agenda.

Likewise, the report seeks to be a tool for articulation. A meeting point for governments, the judiciary, ombudsmen, prosecutors, civil society, academia, international organizations, but most importantly, for the voices of children and adolescents.

The preparation of this report involved participants from the justice ecosystem across the region. In line with this collective effort, the report includes a detailed analysis of the drafting process of the Ibero-American Common Rules on Restorative Juvenile Criminal Justice, led by the main justice networks and regional bodies.

The report is divided up into the following sections:

Section 1–Regional Context

Section 2–Access to Justice and the Development Agenda: People-Centered and Child-Centered Justice

Section 3–Principles of Child-Centered Justice: Progress in the Region

Section 4–Vision and Regional Agenda

By The Institute for the Study of Global Antisemitism and Policy (ISGAP)

This study investigates the Muslim Brotherhood’s strategy of “civilizational struggle” (jihad) in Western society, with a specific focus on the United States. By analyzing primary documents, including the “Explanatory Memorandum” (1991) and “The Project” (1982), along with comparative historical analysis, it traces the development of the Brotherhood’s doctrine of tamkeen (institutional entrenchment) from its theoretical roots in early twentieth-century Egypt to its more advanced practical application in the United States. The study identifies and thoroughly analyzes four strategic domains of influence: policy impact through government entryism and coalition-building; manipulation of the legal framework via lawfare and the redefinition of core concepts; institutional infiltration across educational and civil society organizations; and the establishment of narrative control through media influence and discourse shaping. Multiple detailed case studies within each domain show how Brotherhoodaligned groups have executed these strategies across different countries and historical periods. The analysis in this study, supported by extensive documentary evidence and organizational network assessments, demonstrates that the Muslim Brotherhood’s long-term strategy is a deliberate, multigenerational effort that closely aligns with its founders’ vision of gradually transforming Western society from within, primarily through nonviolent means. Ideologically speaking, it is also fundamentally opposed to Western democratic values and governance systems. This study offers an important assessment of the key strategic objectives of Islamist extremism and ideological entryism within democratic systems by the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as the intersection of Islamist extremism with religious identity politics that exploit democratic principles, multicultural respect for diversity, and transnational movements in an era of globalization and information warfare. The study concludes with an assessment of the challenges faced by policymakers, security professionals, and civil society leaders who aim to protect democratic values while respecting religious freedoms. In a nutshell, it states that effective responses need to balance security concerns with civil liberties, differentiate between genuine religious practice and ideological extremism, and create more sophisticated frameworks for understanding and addressing radical Islamism.

By John Bradford and Aaron Jed Rabena

Key Takeaways

The maritime security situation in the southern Philippines and neighbouring areas of Malaysia and Indonesia has greatly improved in recent years, thanks to coordinated government action.

The threats from terrorism and kidnapping have been reduced, but other forms of maritime criminal activity have become even more prominent, with smuggling and human trafficking emerging as the foremost concerns.

The Philippines, its neighbours, and its partners should leverage the positive momentum to build upon the gains, rather than shifting resources away.

The Bangsamoro peace process in the southern Philippines has travelled a rocky road in the decade since the agreement was signed between the national government and the area’s largest armed group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), in 2014. In October 2025, a series of court cases that derailed the first elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao presented the latest bump – possibly a very consequential one. However, in the same decade, the maritime security situation has significantly improved in this area’s seas, which, as a matter of geography, history, and culture, are directly linked to the larger Philippines–Malaysia–Indonesia tri-border area (TBA).

A decade ago, the waters around the TBA were awash with banditry. The kidnapping of mariners and coastal residents was one of the most lucrative forms of crime. When eleven kidnapping incidents (nine successful) were documented over a nine-month period during 2016, alarm bells rang in the shipping community.

The cresting waves of maritime violence prompted Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines to begin coordinating air and maritime patrols under the auspices of the 2017 Trilateral Cooperative Arrangement. Since then, the Philippine government has arrested hundreds of suspects and engaged in clashes with members of maritime-savvy armed organisations, while also focusing on the region’s economic development. There have been no incidents of kidnapping at sea since January 2020.

Given the range of intense challenges the three nations face – especially in the maritime domain – it is both natural and appropriate that they may reorient resources towards other priorities. However, it would be a mistake to rest on their laurels. While the violence may have lessened, the TBA waters are still plagued by crime. It would be wiser to continue building on this success rather than easing the pressure, thereby allowing the criminals to reconstitute. 

By D. Michael Applegarth, JoAnn S. Lee

This study examines changes in risk and protective factors among youth on probation (N=6,997) and how services received relate to these changes and subsequent recidivism. Using standardized risk assessments at intake and exit, logistic regression models assessed changes in risk and protective subscales, the relationship between specific services and observed changes, and associations with rearrest and reconviction. Overall, youth showed reduced risk and increased protective scores during probation. Increases in treatment, restitution, and assessments were linked to risk reductions, while treatment, assessments, and skill-building services were associated with gains in protective factors. Notably, more treatment services corresponded with increased risk in the school domain. Youth of color were less likely to experience a decrease in risk and an increase in protective scores. Increases in protective school scores and treatment services were linked to lower odds of rearrest and reconviction. In comparison, more monitoring services and increased legal history were associated with higher odds of recidivism. Findings highlight the potential of rehabilitative services to support youth success and suggest compliance based approaches, such as increased monitoring, may undermine outcomes. The study underscores the need for equitable, developmentally appropriate, and supportive interventions in juvenile probation.

By Leander Andres, Stefan Bauernschuster, Gordon B. Dahl, Helmut Rainer, Simone Schüller

This paper studies the impact of birthright citizenship on youth crime. We leverage a reform which automatically granted birthright citizenship to eligible immigrant children born in Germany after January 1, 2000 and administrative crime data from three federal states. Immigrant youth who acquired citizenship at birth are substantially less likely to engage in criminal activity, with estimates indicating a 70% reduction. These results are particularly relevant in light of ongoing debates in the U.S. about abolishing birthright citizenship. Our findings suggest that inclusive citizenship policies can reduce crime and its associated costs, which in turn could strengthen social cohesion.

Nobody ever spoke to me like that before.” Improving Interactions Within the Justice System. Recommended practices from national clinical experts convened by the NYC Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice & Center for Justice Innovation

By The New York City Mayor's Office of Criminal Justice

Most people who are arrested in New York City are not rearrested while they wait for a decision about the outcome of their case. However, a small group are rearrested at substantially elevated rates. And despite their clear need for supportive services, most of this group never receive intensive mental health, emotional health, or behavioral health interventions at any point during their time in the justice system. Instead, most interactions people experience as they journey through the justice system are limited to a series of brief mandated encounters—check-ins, needs assessments, reminders, hearings. Despite their brevity, these encounters represent key intervention points1 with the potential to change individuals’ future well-being and behavior, either negatively or positively, through inevitable influences on their emotional and psychological well-being. As New York City grapples with how to adequately serve people at highest need and highest risk of justice involvement, the New York City Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice and the Center for Justice Innovation convened a national roundtable of clinical experts in Manhattan on October 12, 2023. Participants were asked to distill their expertise and apply it to the range of processes that practitioners most frequently navigate within the criminal court system context. The goal was to identify key opportunities for making these processes as therapeutic and impactful as possible under the constraints of system-based practice—in New York City and across the country. This roundtable focused on the interactions most system-involved people actually have on a daily basis. Specifically, intake screenings, routine monitoring appointments, and other brief mandated interventions are critical opportunities for providing trauma-informed care, which recognizes and responds to the high rates of trauma that people involved in the justice system experience.2 Often, this trauma is experienced both prior to3 and as a result of their involvement in the system.4 Making use of these opportunities could go a long way toward increasing court appearances, reducing rearrests, and increasing engagement in longer-term supportive and therapeutic services. As the city continues to wrestle with the twin challenges of reducing crime and incarceration and improving behavioral health care in the city, this roundtable could not come at a more critical moment. The roundtable sought to connect overall principles to concrete practices. While practitioners often refer to principles such as being trauma-informed, meeting people where they’re at, strengths based, and non-judgmental, what does that actually look like in practice? And how can staff reconcile these most effectively with accountability? What specific words or actions generate increased engagement and connection with people who do not trust systems of any kind, much less the justice system? This brief provides a list of concrete recommendations for providers, distilled from the roundtable discussion. It should be noted that none of these recommendations should be taken as conclusive or unequivocally endorsed by the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice. Instead, MOCJ is providing a summary of the recommendations provided by experts based on their experiences in the field.

By Olivia Naugle

The youth justice system was created because youth are different from adults.1 State departments of juvenile justice have purpose clauses affirming that rehabilitation is their primary goal. In the youth justice system, youth have access to developmentally appropriate services that are not available in the adult criminal legal system. Sending youth to the adult criminal justice system, for any offense, harms youth wellbeing and community safety.

By Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Marilyn Ibarra-Caton

Background

Mexico rolled out state-led criminal justice reforms between 2000 and 2017 to modernize procedures and improve rule of law. Whether these changes reduced violent crime—especially in cartel-affected areas—remains uncertain.

Aims

Estimate the impact of reform implementation on homicides and arrests, and assess mechanisms related to enforcement capacity and public cooperation with law enforcement.

Materials & Methods

We build a municipality–year panel (2000–2017) from death certificates (homicides) and administrative records (arrests). Because states adopted reforms at different times, we use difference-in-differences estimators designed for staggered adoption and heterogeneous treatment effects, with rich fixed effects and controls. To probe mechanisms, we analyze nationally representative survey measures of crime reporting, institutional trust, and perceived police/prosecutorial integrity.

Results

Reform implementation is associated with a ~25% increase in homicide rates. Over the same horizon, arrest rates fall by >50%. As homicides are less prone to underreporting than other crimes, the homicide increase is unlikely to be a reporting artifact. Survey evidence shows reduced crime reporting, declining trust in institutions, and more negative views of police and prosecutors; effects are strongest in cartel-affected regions.

Discussion

The pattern is consistent with an erosion of effective enforcement capacity at rollout: fewer arrests and lower public cooperation raise expected returns to violent crime. In high-violence settings, reforms that change procedures without parallel boosts to investigative and prosecutorial capacity—and without safeguards for witnesses—can weaken deterrence.

Conclusion

Mexico’s staggered judicial reforms coincided with higher homicides and sharply lower arrests. Successful reform in violent contexts likely requires coordinated institutional strengthening (policing, prosecution, witness protection), phased implementation with measurable benchmarks, and strategies to sustain public trust and reporting.

By The International Organization for Migration

This report, Climate Chains: Mapping the Relationship between Climate, Trafficking in Persons and Building Resilience in Ethiopia, explores the complex links between climate change, livelihood, vulnerability, migration and human trafficking in Ethiopia. Commissioned by IOM under the Climate Resilience Against Trafficking and Exploitation (CREATE) project, this study forms part of a broader research focusing on Ethiopia and the Philippines – two countries facing distinct climate challenges: slow-onset droughts and sudden-onset typhoons, respectively.  

The research used a mixed-methods approach including household surveys, interviews and focus group discussions. The report puts forward a conceptual model that links climate events and trafficking through a series of intertwined steps. It identifies a causal chain where climate events disrupt livelihood, increase vulnerability and heighten migration intentions, which can lead to exploitation and trafficking. The research explores how factors linking climate and trafficking operate in Ethiopia. 

This study provides critical insights and recommendations for policymakers, donors and organizations in Ethiopia and internationally that are working to combat human trafficking and exploitation, while strengthening resilience to climate change.

By Devair Monteiro, Laryssa Suemy Oumoriz , Carmen Silvia Molleis Galego Miziara , Ivan Dieb Miziara

This study examines the relationship between the incidence of willful homicides committed with firearms and economic factors in the subprefectures of São Paulo (Brazil) in the year 2023. The analysis involved comparing records of willful homicides with the average family income in the locations where the crimes occurred. The results indicate a lack of significant statistical correlation between the incidence of such crimes and the economic conditions of the analyzed regions. Therefore, one possible conclusion is that family income alone is not a determinant factor in the observed crime patterns. In summary, although the average family income provides valuable insights into the socioeconomic scenario of the subprefectures, it is insufficient to elucidate the complexity of urban crime in São Paulo. So, this study suggests that other factors, possibly related to social, cultural, or public policy dynamics, should be considered for a more comprehensive understanding of the homicide patterns in the city.

Forensic Science International: Reports, Dec. 2025

By John R. Lott, et al.

After peaking in 2022, the number of Concealed Carry Permit holders across the United States has declined for the third year in a row. The total now sits at 20.88 million, representing a 2.7% drop from last year. A major factor behind this ongoing decrease is the widespread adoption of Constitutional Carry laws. Following Louisiana’s implementation of permitless carry on July 4, 2024, 29 states now allow residents to carry without a permit. As a result, 46.8% of Americans (157.6 million) now live in Constitutional Carry States, with 67.7% of the land in the country (2.57 million square miles). Although no additional states enacted such laws this year, the broader trend remains unchanged. Unlike gun ownership surveys that may be affected by people’s unwillingness to answer personal questions, concealed handgun permit data is the only really “hard data” that we have, but it becomes a less accurate measure as more states become Constitutional Carry states.

Salt Lake City UK: Crime Prevention Research Center, 2025