By Robin S. Engel, Jennifer Calnon Cherkauskas

The 2024 Annual Report of the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) Traffic Stop Study presents a comprehensive analysis of member-initiated traffic stops conducted between January 1 and December 31, 2024. It continues a multi-year initiative to collect, audit, and analyze traffic stop data. In 2021, the Pennsylvania State Police (PSP) revitalized its effort to collect traffic stop data This initiative builds on a voluntary traffic stop data collection system created by the PSP twenty-five years ago in partnership with the current research team, which was operational from 2001 to 2010 and served as a national model for traffic stop data collection (Engel & Cherkauskas, 2022). The report provides a detailed breakdown of traffic stop characteristics and outcomes at the department level, as well as across PSP’s four Areas, 16 Troops, and 89 Stations. PSP’s voluntary data collection and analysis align with best practices, showcasing its commitment to transparency and accountability to its communities and reinforcing its dedication to evidence-based policing practices. The objectives of the traffic stop data collection and analysis are to: (1) identify patterns and trends in traffic stops and their outcomes, specifically documenting any racial/ethnic disparities; (2) utilize data analysis to promote effective and fair law enforcement practices that enhance public and traffic safety; (3) foster public trust through transparent documentation of traffic stop data and findings; (4) identify opportunities for improvement in PSP policies, training, and supervisory oversight concerning traffic stops. 

Harrisburg: Pennsylvania State Police, 2025. 139p.

By Zhuoying Fan, Xuewei Zhang, Guangwen Song &Chunxia Zhang 

• Targeted police stops are frequently carried out by police in response to real-world needs. The effectiveness of various purpose-driven police stop tactics on crime prevention and control varies. However, existing research has neither identified the associated factors of police stops nor explored their impact on crime with different factors. Therefore, this study focuses on the main urban areas of megacities along the southeast coast of China. The space is partitioned using hierarchical clustering after applying the XGBoost and SHAP algorithms to determine the factors related to police stops. Lastly, this study explores the causal effects of police stops with different associated factors on crime, using causal forests within double machine learning. There are three conclusions. First, there is a strong correlation between police stops and four variables: alarm, visiting population, criminal, and government agencies. Second, by clustering based on different associated factors of police stops, existing police stops can be classified into five categories according to their purposes: (i) composite stops positively associated with “Alarm, Visiting Population, Criminals” (AVC-CPS); (ii) composite stops positively associated with “Alarm, Visiting Population, Bus Station” (AVB-CPS); (iii) random stops with no significant positive association (NA-RPS); (iv) single police stops positively associated with “Alarm” (A-SPS); and (v) single stops positively associated with “Visiting Population” (V-SPS). AVC-CPS corresponds to the highest number of grids in the study area. Third, the influence of police stops on crime varies significantly depending on the factors that are associated with them. Among all categories, AVC-CPS has the best overall inhibitory effect on crime, while single police stops and random police stops have minimal or insignificant effects. In summary, the conclusions of this study can provide a basis for optimizing the spatial deployment of police forces, aiming to improve the effectiveness of stop operations and crime prevention and control capabilities.

  • Humanit Soc Sci Commun 12, 1026 (2025)

By Jeremy D. Barnum., Kevin D. Lucey,  Meagan E. Cahill,  William H. Sousa, 

  Illicit drug use is a significant problem in the United States, driven in large part by the opioid crisis. In 2023, the nation reported 107,543 drug overdose deaths, with more than 80,000 deaths involving an opioid. Stimulants have also become a growing problem; in 2023, more than 36,000 overdoses involved a psychostimulant, and nearly 30,000 involved cocaine (CDC 2024). Law enforcement is a crucial piece of the broader response to the drug crisis (PERF 2021). Proactive police interventions that leverage problem-solving and involve partnerships with community stakeholders offer the most substantial evidence of effectiveness (Mazerolle, Soole, and Rombouts 2007). One strategy to reduce drug problems is third-party policing (TPP). TPP involves police efforts to persuade or coerce nonoffending third parties (landlords, business owners, etc.) to take on more responsibility for addressing crime and disorder at or around their premises (Mazerolle and Ransley 2006). Typically, police begin by seeking voluntary cooperation of third parties by sharing information with them about specific problems, educating third parties on ways to prevent problems, or providing support to third parties to make changes. When third parties resist collaborative efforts, police may use coercive approaches, such as warnings, property inspections, or enforcement of civil remedies (Bichler, Schmerler, and Enriquez 2013; Eck and Wartell 1998; Mazerolle and Roehl 1998b). The study This report describes a randomized controlled evaluation of a TPP intervention implemented in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. The intervention, called Operation CheckOut, aimed to reduce drug problems at hotel s and motels by fostering trusted partnerships between police and hotel staff. Officers from the Anne Arundel County Police Department (AACOPD) conducted four in-person visits between August 2022 and May 2023 to a randomly selected group of hotels. During in-person visits, officers engaged in a scripted procedural justice dialogue with hotel managers, delivered educational materials, identified legal responsibilities, and provided a dedicated email address that functioned as a “tip line” to report problems or suspicious activity directly to the Operation Check-Out team. The intervention was designed as a partial replication of Operation Galley, a TPP intervention   implemented by the Queensland (Australia) Police Service in 2017 (Mazerolle et al. 2018). The goal of the intervention was to bolster intelligence, investigations, and enforcement actions; reduce crime and disorder; and improve perceptions of police. Key findings Outcome analysis Calls for service data were analyzed to determine the impact of Operation Check-Out on four outcomes: (1) drug activity, (2) sick persons (e.g., overdoses), (3) disorder, and (4) violence. Average monthly calls for service for each outcome were compared among hotels in the treatment and control groups during the pre-intervention period, during the intervention period, and during the post-intervention period. Three findings were significant: 1. Calls reporting drug activity were lower at treatment hotels during the post-intervention period than during the pre-intervention or intervention periods. 2. Calls reporting sick persons were lower at treatment hotels during the post-intervention period than during the pre-intervention or intervention periods. 3. Calls reporting disorder were higher at treatment hotels during the intervention period than during the pre-intervention or post-intervention periods. That there were significantly fewer drug activity calls at treatment hotels following Operation Check-Out than there had been before is encouraging, as the intervention was specifically designed to mitigate drug problems. Reducing drug activity reduces the need for hotel staff to call 911. Also, as part of their efforts to build rapport with hotel management, officers often provided their direct work lines—allowing management to call specific officers familiar with their facility and problems instead of the generic 911 line. That there were significantly fewer sick person calls at treatment hotels during the postintervention period than during the pre-intervention or intervention periods further supports the idea that Operation Check-Out reduced drug activity during the intervention period with impacts realized during the post-intervention period. Given less drug activity, fewer overdoses would be expected. Finally, the finding that there were more disorder calls at treatment hotels during the intervention period than during the pre-intervention or post-intervention periods is somewhat unexpected, as fewer disorder calls would be expected in an environment with greater cooperation, enforcement, and police presence. One plausible explanation is that hotel staff were more willing to contact the police as a result of Operation Check-Out because, for example, they may have felt they had a supportive partner in addressing issues at their hotel, or they may have understood that the intervention involved repeated visits and become concerned about bringing trouble to the hotel if they failed to report problems to police.

Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum, 2025. 103p.

By The Policing Project at NYU School of Law 

  The story of the Chicago Neighborhood Policing Initiative begins in 2019. At that time, the City of Chicago faced a number of serious challenges involving crime and community confidence in the police. Decades-long concerns about discriminatory policing, police accountability, use of force, external oversight, and community responsiveness had reached a critical point that demanded action. Following the police shooting of Laquan McDonald, the United States Department of Justice investigated and found a pattern or practice of unconstitutional policing by the Chicago Police Department (CPD), linking a lack of public trust to reduced crime prevention effectiveness. Within this environment, CPD personnel visited New York City to learn about the New York Police Department’s (NYPD) recently developed Neighborhood Policing model. That approach focused on reorganizing patrol activities in police districts to allow officers to engage meaningfully with the community and address local issues. The NYPD credited this method with enhancing community involvement and revitalizing focus on community policing. It is worth noting that Chicago’s original, groundbreaking community policing model, the Chicago Alternative Policing Strategy (CAPS), shared many features with the NYPD model, such as promoting partnership with community. But CAPS became under-resourced over time and today is a stand-alone program focused on community events rather than crime strategy. Identifying the NYPD model as a promising approach to improving public safety and relationships with the community, CPD leadership asked the Policing Project at New York University School of Law to work with the Department and local communities to develop a strategy to re-imagine the NYPD model to meet the needs and particular challenges of Chicago. Since 2019, the Policing Project has been supporting the development and implementation of the model, made possible by the partnership of a dedicated coalition of Chicago philanthropic organizations. The Neighborhood Policing Initiative (NPI) is a core policing strategy focused on problem-solving and crime reduction activities, undertaken in collaboration with neighborhood residents in a manner that builds trust between police and community. Through NPI, the community and the police share responsibility for addressing public safety issues in communities. NPI’s goal is to transform the community-police dynamic to produce meaningful public safety. Rather than solely relying on traditional police responses, NPI seeks to bring together Chicago communities to identify problems and develop solutions to guide police efforts going forward.  NPI’s vision is for this philosophy to permeate every level of the Department, equipping CPD and the communities it serves to reach a shared understanding of what policing should look like. Under NPI, residents are an ongoing, central part of the actual decision-making process on how they are policed.

New York: NYU University School of Law, Policing Project, 2025. 118p.   

 By Lokniti in collaboration with Common Cause.Despite the prohibition of torture being a provision of the Indian Constitution, custodial torture by the police remains widespread and under-reported. A strong societal belief in the utility of torture as a response to crime normalises its use by the police. Cases of police brutality are generally brushed away and only come to light when they result in death. Fewer still result in inquiries or punitive actions against perpetrators. This SPIR study aims to address the normalisation of police violence by establishing reliable and accurate data on public perception of police violence. Unlike previous SPIR reports, the 2025 study does not account for the views of the common citizens but rather directly explores the perceptions of those in authority- police personnel. The study explores the patterns and practices of routine policing that eventually contribute to the use of violence by the police in their day-to-day operations, such as detention, investigation, arrest and interrogation. The study is designed to be utilised for policy and advocacy. It offers key insights into personnel’s belief in the rule of law and level of legal training.The study investigates the nature and contexts of custodial torture and police brutality in India. Furthermore, it examines the trends of official denial. To understand the enmeshment of law enforcement and society that creates propensities to violence, the survey data assesses police opinions on various parameters, such as frequent crimes and arrests, crime control measures, moral policing and mob violence. Police perceptions of the criminal justice system and its functioning, trials and justice-seekers are also assessed. The study engages with personnel’s views on justifications for custodial violence and torture during arrests, engagements with witnesses, interrogations, etc. In the same vein, the survey also probes into police personnel’s views of judicial scrutiny and accountability of custodial deaths, brutality and “encounters”. Views of other stakeholders involved in the process, such as lawyers, doctors, and judges, on police and magisterial accountability are recounted in the scope of the SPIR, too. Finally, the report evaluates the quality and status of official records on police torture and violence.The survey was conducted in 17 Indian states with a sample of 8,276 police personnel across rural areas, capital cities and urban areas. Of the respondents, 85 per cent were male respondents and the rest were female. 59 per cent of respondent personnel were of constabulary rank, forty per cent of upper subordinate rank and one per cent of IPS level ranks.

New Delhi: Common Cause and Lokniti - Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) , 2025. 218p.

By Byeongjun Kim

 Most previous research on inequality in policing has been limited to race and gender. To widen the knowledge of inequality in policing, this study took note of the location as a novel domain based on varying crime rates by area. The data for the study were drawn from the Crime Survey for England and Wales in 2007–2008 and 2017– 2018. Also, it used the stop-and-search data from 2015 to 2018 and the key facts and fgures taken from Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary and Fire & Rescue Services (HMICFRS). The study has been structured into two models. Model 1 examined if there are diferences between regions in citizens’ attitudes towards the police in England. It used one-way analysis of variance as a statistical technique and analysed the efect of the region (independent variable) of England on citizens’ attitudes towards the police (dependent variable). Model 2 analysed the efect of several factors: The stop-and-search rate, residential population, police ofce size, and budget on citizens’ attitudes towards the police to fnd causes of the diferences in the attitudes by region using simple linear regression. The study found that there were spatial diferences in citizens’ attitudes towards the police between regions. In addition, surprisingly, the stop-and-search per 1,000 people had a positive efect on citizens’ attitudes towards the police, which contrasted with previous research suggesting a negative efect of stop-and-search on public support. However, the other factors: Population, police ofce size, and budget did not afect citizens’ attitudes towards the police. In conclusion, there is regional inequality in public opinion of policing, and the public opinion of the police is positively afected by the number of police use of stop-and-search.

  Security Journal (2025) 38:56

By Lucia Bird | Jason Eligh,  Kingsley Madueke | Mouhamadou Kane

The proliferation of synthetic drugs across West Africa potentially represents one of the most urgent and complex public health and security challenges facing the region. In recent years, the illicit drug landscape has been fundamentally reshaped, moving away from traditional plant-based substances controlled by hierarchical criminal networks towards a fragmented, decentralized market for man-made psychoactive compounds. The harms driven by the synthetic drug market – overdoses, chronic health conditions, severe mental health conditions, community fragmentation – are escalating. Consumption, and consequences, are concentrated in the youth: in the worst-affected countries this poses a serious threat to future stability and economic development. The effects of synthetic drugs in parts of West Africa have become so severe that since 2024 two countries have declared states of emergency – an unprecedented response previously reserved for deadly epidemics and pandemics.1 This report examines the emergence and rapid expansion of this synthetic drug economy in West Africa, detailing how factors such as low barriers to entry, the convenience and anonymity afforded by the proliferation of online platforms and technology, and the minimal capital required for production have enabled a diverse array of new criminal actors to enter the trade. The subsequent influx of substances such as synthetic cannabinoids, nitazenes and other novel compounds of unknown composition, and the expansion of pre-existing synthetic drug markets such as methamphetamine, present a multifaceted threat that is rapidly outpacing the response capacity of regional governments. The breadth and depth of synthetic substance presence globally has grown enormously over the past decade. Increasingly, synthetic substances are being detected in local illicit drug markets that have no prior record of their presence, often being identified as contaminants of, or unknown substitutes for, other more traditional substances. Expanding use of synthetic opioids, particularly tramadol, tramadol derivatives (most prominently tapentadol) and nitazenes in West Africa, is a particularly alarming trend within this growing illicit drug marketplace. These substances, some vital to public health institutions for pain relief and palliative care purposes, have been responsible for a significant increase in drug-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. Their potency and availability pose unprecedented challenges to public health systems and law enforcement agencies alike.

The sheer diversity of substances being synthesized, the inability of existing surveillance systems to effectively identify many of them, and the challenge of interdicting and mitigating their harms significantly impairs the ability of health and security services to respond. Further, the intersection of synthetic drug markets with other illicit activities further complicates efforts to address these challenges effectively. Organized criminal networks leverage the profits generated from synthetic drug production, trafficking and distribution to fund their criminal operations and purchase protection, driving corruption. The report explores the mechanisms driving this rapid expansion in synthetic drug markets in West Africa, analyzing the critical roles of digital technology and globalized supply chains. It looks at how internet penetration across the region has facilitated growth in the online purchase of precursor chemicals and finished products, often from suppliers in Asia and Europe, which are smuggled into the region through difficult-to-monitor channels such as postal and courier services. The report discusses the profound economic incentives that make the synthetic drug trade so attractive, functioning as a ‘bridge’ market that allows new entrants to accumulate capital rapidly. By examining case studies and discussing market trends, the report illustrates how these dynamics have allowed synthetic drugs to capture a growing share of the retail market with alarming speed, potentially leading to devastating social and public health consequences.

Geneva:  Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. 2026. 47p.

Lee Schlenker

US–Mexico security tensions are reaching potentially unprecedented levels amid repeated threats from President Trump to unilaterally strike Mexican drug cartels, which he now claims “run” the country. The violent reaction by the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación, or CJNG, after the Mexican National Guard killed its leader, “El Mencho,” with the support of US military intelligence in late February underscores the broad impacts of cartel terror in Mexico and the lack of neat solutions to eliminating it. 

What restraint-oriented strategies can the United States and Mexico develop together to tackle this scourge? To address the issue of crime and drugs from Mexico, Congress has appropriated $3.6 billion in security assistance between 2008 and 2024, and the Trump administration has designated six Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. Both of these measures have done little to address the surging demand for illicit narcotics or the “iron river” of US weapons flowing across the border. Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has deployed 10,000 additional troops to the US–Mexico border, transferred almost 100 high-level drug criminals to US custody, and allowed expanded US drone flights over Mexican territory. 

But unilateral US strikes in Mexico and American boots on the ground for joint operations with Mexican personnel remain a red line for Sheinbaum, who, under immense pressure, has overseen targeted interventions in high-crime Mexican states that have led to a 32 percent drop in homicides. 

The Trump administration should focus on three broad policy areas to help effectively stem the flow of illicit narcotics into the United States and weaken transnational criminal threats, while also avoiding counterproductive unilateral military strikes on Mexican territory: 

• Improved security cooperation and bilateral coordination, including making better use of the Department of Defense’s advise-and-assist, educational, and professional training programs as well as exploring a US advisory role in Mexican command centers over the country’s domestic operations. 

• Tougher laws to combat arms smuggling, judicial cooperation to disrupt illicit financial networks and money laundering, and joint cross-border investigations into Mexican and US officials credibly alleged of ties to drug trafficking and corruption. 

• Funding for overdose-prevention and demand-reduction programs, strengthening the Treasury Department’s Counter-Fentanyl Strike Force, and pursuing commercial diplomacy with Mexico and China to stem the production and flow of precursor chemicals. 

Washington, DC: Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

2026. 6p.

By Heidi Mathis, 

The purpose of this quantitative study was to compare the characteristics of offenders who posted on social media for attention versus those who posted on social media for fame using discriminant factorial analysis (DFA). To date, there has been very little research done on social media usage with regards to mass shootings. The wealth of the research close to the study at hand has to do with not naming the offender and the media contingency effect. The current research helped close some of that gap. Researching social media usage and mass shootings showed how the variables: location, rejection, mental health history, criminal history, how weapons were obtained, how the offender(s) were apprehended, household status, education, and whether the offender killed family members relate to criminality. This was in line with the framework for this study, anomie, and strain theory. Out of 300 cases analyzed, 72 were chosen that contained all the variables being analyzed in this study. The results of this study were not significant. The variables did not significantly differentiate the mass shooting offenders who posted for attention versus those who posted for fame. This study may be used by forensic experts for positive social change by understanding social media statements made by mass shooters.

By W Tomas, N Fumo, C A Kostelac, K Flynn-O'Brien, M Levas, R Moore, T A de Roon-Cassini, S Hargarten

Introduction: Firearms are now the leading cause of death for U.S. children and teens ages 0-19. The U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) reported data in 2022 on firearm production, for specific firearm types and calibers. We hypothesized there would be a correlation between firearm production and firearm deaths and nonfatal injuries in youth.

Methods: All firearm deaths and nonfatal injury rates for youth ages 0-19 were extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2020. Firearm production from 2001 to 2020 was extracted from the 2022 ATF Firearms in Commerce Report for overall firearm production, production by weapon type and pistol caliber. Relationships between firearm death and injury and firearm production were evaluated using correlational analyses.

Results: Firearm death and nonfatal injury rates for youth increased from 2001 to 2020 by 48.2% and 69.2%, respectively, and firearm production increased 265% overall and 1298% for 9 mm pistols. There was no correlation between total firearm manufacturing and total firearm deaths or nonfatal injury rates from 2001 to 2020 (all r < 0.28). Pistol caliber (25 and 9 mm) was associated with total firearm deaths and nonfatal injuries (all r > 0.55).

Conclusion: While total firearm manufacturing was not related to firearm deaths and injuries, except suicides, there were strong relationships between 9 mm pistol production and firearm deaths and injuries in youth. Firearm injuries are preventable; we must invest in stronger information systems that track details of firearms linked with deaths and injuries.

By Stephen B. Billings

Using linked individual data on concealed handgun permits (CHP), reported crimes and arrests, I examine the dynamics of gun-ownership and criminal victimization. I initially show that being male, Republican, older, born in-state and a recent crime victim increases the probability that an adult obtains a CHP. Getting a CHP increases property crime victimization by 46% with the largest impact on having a firearm stolen. Individual CHP holders see no change in violent crime victimization thus dispelling any benefits in terms of protection. Obtaining a CHP has a small (2%) effect on total crime and a larger effect on violent crime using a gun (8%) within the CHP holders neighborhood. Results suggest stolen guns spillover to neighborhood crime which is an important component of the larger social costs of gun ownership.

By  Hannah S. Laqueur · Christopher McCort · Colette Smirniotis · Sonia Robinson · Garen J. Wintemute

Firearm-related interpersonal violence is a leading cause of death and injury in cities across the United States, and understanding the movement of firearms from on-the-books sales to criminal end-user is critical to the formulation of gun violence prevention policy. In this study, we assemble a unique dataset that combines records for over 380,000 crime guns recovered by law enforcement in California (2010– 2021), and more than 126,000 guns reported stolen, linked to in-state legal handgun transactions (1996– 2021), to describe local and statewide crime gun trends and investigate several potentially important sources of guns to criminals, including privately manufactured firearms (PMFs), theft, and “dirty” dealers. We document a dramatic increase over the decade in firearms recovered shortly after purchase (7% were recovered within a year in 2010, up to 33% in 2021). This corresponds with a substantial rise in handgun purchasing over the decade, suggesting some fraction of newly and legally acquired firearms are likely diverted from the legal market for criminal use. We document the rapid growth of PMFs over the past 2–3 years and find theft plays some, though possibly diminishing, role as a crime gun source. Finally, we find evidence that some retailers contribute disproportionately to the supply of crime guns, though there appear to be fewer problematic dealers now than there were a decade ago. Overall, our study points to temporal shifts in the dynamics of criminal firearms commerce as well as significant city variation in the channels by which criminals acquire crime guns. 

By Kaitlin Forsberg, Kameron J Sheats, Janet M Blair, Brenda L Nguyen, Esther Amoakohene, Carter J Betz, Bridget H Lyons

Problem/Condition: In 2022, approximately 24,000 persons died of homicide and approximately 49,000 persons died of suicide in the United States, according to the National Vital Statistics System. This report summarizes data from CDC’s National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) on suicides, homicides, legal intervention deaths, unintentional firearm injury deaths, and deaths of undetermined intent that occurred in the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico in 2022. Results are reported by sex, age group, race and ethnicity, method of injury, type of location where the injury occurred, circumstances of injury, and other selected characteristics. In contrast to the 2021 NVDRS report, which collected data from a subset of states and included suicide data for persons aged ≥10 years, this report includes data from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, and includes suicide data for all ages.

Period Covered: 2022.

Description of System: NVDRS collects data from death certificates, coroner and medical examiner reports, and law enforcement reports. This report includes data collected for violent deaths and suicides that occurred in 2022. Data were collected from all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. A total of 47 states had statewide data, three states had data from counties representing a subset of their population (32 California counties, representing 68% of its population; 32 Florida counties, representing 70% of its population; and 13 Texas counties, representing 63% of its population), and the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico had jurisdiction-wide data. NVDRS collates information for each death and links deaths that are related (e.g., multiple homicides, homicide followed by suicide, or multiple suicides) into a single incident.

Results: For 2022, NVDRS collected information on 72,127 fatal incidents involving 74,148 deaths that occurred in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. In addition, data were collected for 727 fatal incidents involving 809 deaths in Puerto Rico, which were analyzed separately. Of the 74,148 deaths that occurred in 50 states and the District of Columbia, the majority (60.6%) were suicides, followed by homicides (30.2%), deaths of undetermined intent (7.1%), legal intervention deaths (1.4%) (i.e., deaths caused by law enforcement and other persons with legal authority to use deadly force acting in the line of duty, excluding legal executions, without denoting the lawfulness or legality of the circumstances surrounding the death), and unintentional firearm injury deaths (<1.0%). Of the 809 deaths that occurred in Puerto Rico, 73.9% were homicides and 23.5% were suicides.

By Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, Sabrina Oesterle , Martie L Skinner

Purpose: Adolescent handgun carrying is a behavioral marker for youth interpersonal conflicts and an intervention point for violence prevention. Our knowledge about the epidemiology of adolescent handgun carrying mainly pertains to urban settings. Evidence on the initiation age, cumulative prevalence, and longitudinal patterns of this behavior and on handgun-related norms and peer behavior among male and female rural adolescents is scant.

Methods: We used data from the control arm of the Community Youth Development Study, a community-randomized controlled trial of the Communities That Care prevention system. Annually, 1,039 males and 963 females were surveyed from Grade 6 (2005) to age 19 years (2012) in 12 rural towns across seven U.S. states.

Results: In Grade 6, 11.5% of males and 2.8% of females reported past-year handgun carrying. Between Grade 6 and age 19 years, 33.7% of males and 9.6% of females reported handgun carrying at least once. Among participants who ever reported handgun carrying, 34.0% of males and 29.3% of females did so for the first time in Grade 6. Among participants who ever reported handgun carrying, 54.6% of males and 71.7% of females did so only one time over the seven study assessments. Greater proportions of participants who reported handgun carrying than those who did not do so endorsed prohandgun norms and had a peer who carried among both males (Grade 10: prevalence difference = 57%; 95% CI: 46%-67%) and females (Grade 10: prevalence difference = 45%; 95% CI: 12%-78%).

Conclusions: Rural adolescent handgun carrying is not uncommon and warrants etiologic research for developing culturally appropriate and setting-specific prevention programs.

By: Naoka Carey, Rebekah Levine Coley

Objectives: This study explores the changing prevalence of adolescent handgun carriage, with attention to differences across sociodemographic groups.Methods: Data were drawn from repeated cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys conducted annually from 2002 to 2019, the National Survey on Drug Use & Health. The study sample included adolescents aged 12 to 17 (N = 297 055). Logistic regression models estimated the prevalence of past year handgun carriage across cohort and sociodemographic subgroups. Interactions between 4-time cohorts and other variables explored sociodemographic variability in prevalence rates over time.

Results: Handgun carriage increased significantly, particularly among rural, White, and higher-income adolescents. Carriage increased by 41% over cohorts, with predicted prevalence rates increasing from 3.3% in 2002-2006 to 4.6% in 2015-2019. Across cohorts, rural (5.1%), American Indian/Alaskan Native (5.2%), lower-income (<$20 000; 3.9%), male (5.9%), and older (16-17 years old; 4.5%) adolescents were the most likely to report carriage. However, these patterns changed significantly over time, with White and higher-income adolescents (>$75 000) most likely to carry in the most recent cohorts. Predicted carriage rates increased from 3.1% to 5.3% among White adolescents, from 2.6% to 5.1% among higher-income adolescents, and from 4.3% to 6.9% among rural adolescents between the 2002-2006 and 2015-2019 cohorts. Carriage among Black, American Indian/Alaskan Native, and lower-income adolescents decreased.Conclusions: Adolescent handgun carriage is increasing, concentrated among particular subgroups of youth, and carriage patterns across sociodemographic groups have changed over time. Programs to address the risk of adolescent gun carriage should be tailored to the specific sociocultural and place-based concerns of diverse adolescents.

By Raúl Zepeda Gil

Violence rising in Latin America since the early 1990s has puzzled media, policymakers and academia. Characterising high scales of violence in non-political confrontations has been one of the main challenges. The main argument of this essay is that the hybrid criminal nature of violence in Latin America by non-state organisations has pushed the discussion to several misinterpretations and conceptual stretching that produces fog rather than clarity. Instead, this essay proposes a concept of criminal war that can capture the complex nature of violence in Latin America by drawing convergences and divergences from diverse fields of literature and confronting usual mischaracterisations in current Latin American research.

Third World QuarTerly, 2023, Vol. 44, No. 4, 776–794

By Patricia Faraldo Cabana

In recent years the interrelation of the trafficking of cultural property with other forms of organised crime has gained prominence in EU policies on the protection of cultural heritage. This article analyses how the EU has conceptualized and operationalized this overlap in terms of describing the phenomenon and designing countermeasures. Through a content analysis, we evaluate the articulation and use of this connection in EU policy documents published from 1993 to 2023 that include both organised crime and trafficking of cultural property or similar terms (n = 58). The analysis demonstrates conceptual and organizational deficits and a correspondingly weak foundation for EU policy. Misunderstandings related to the organised nature of trafficking of cultural property and its overlaps with other forms of organised crime, particularly the financing of terrorism, may result in misguided policies with the potential to undermine law enforcement efforts. Conversely, the addition to the list of obliged entities and persons in the anti-money laundering framework of persons trading or acting as intermediaries in the trade of works of art opens new opportunities to disrupt the illicit financial flow in the art and antiquities market.

By Roland Neil, Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar, Beau Kilmer, Michael W. Robbins, Kristin Warren

Objectives

Racial disparities in arrests are a major concern, particularly when it comes to drug enforcement. In 2021, Oregon decriminalized the possession of controlled substances as part of Measure 110 (M-110), an unprecedented policy change in the United States. We estimate how M-110 affected five types of arrests, overall and by race.

Methods

National Incident-Based Reporting System data covering 3,642 police agencies from 43 states for 2018-2023 are combined with 2020 Census data. We extend a synthetic control methodology developed for micro-level data to test whether policy effects differ across groups and whether policies affect disparities, using permutation inference to quantify uncertainty.

Results

M-110 reduced drug possession arrest rates in Oregon for the overall population (67.8%) and for the three racial groups we focus on: Black (75.6%), Hispanic (77.5%); and White (66.2%), with the reduction being statistically significantly larger for Hispanic and Black than White individuals. M-110 reduced disorder arrest rates by 30.9% for Black individuals, which is statistically significantly different from zero and the White estimate. Black-White rate differences in drug possession arrests fell by 79.5% and in disorder arrests by 41.7%. In general, M-110 did not affect arrest rates for violent, property, or drug trafficking offenses.

Conclusions

M-110 reduced drug possession arrests while reducing Black-White rate differences. M-110 led to a decrease in disorder arrests for Black individuals, suggesting police did not substitute one arrest type for another for this population. Our method offers a new approach for examining heterogeneous policy effects and how policies affect disparities.

By U.S. Congressional Research Service

For over a decade, the synthetic opioid fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances have been key drivers of the U.S. opioid crisis. Countering the illicit trafficking of fentanyl and the precursor chemicals ("precursors") used to make it has been a U.S. priority. In 2015, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) first identified the People's Republic of China (PRC, or China) as the main source of U.S.-bound fentanyl and fentanyl precursors. Since the PRC imposed domestic controls on fentanyl-related substances in 2019, which curtailed almost all direct shipments of fentanyl from China to the United States, many U.S. policymakers have shifted focus. Their chief concern today is the role of China—the global leader in chemical sales—as the primary source of precursors used by transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) to synthesize fentanyl and its analogues in third countries (chiefly Mexico). Congress has sought to address China's shifting role in the illicit drug trade, including through provisions in the BUST Fentanyl Act in the National Defense Authorization Act for FY2026.

By: Nathan P. Jones1 & W. Layne Dittmann2 & Jun Wu3 & Tyler Reese2

This study is a mixed methods case study of the Fernando Sanchez Organization (FSO) better known as the Tijuana Cartel in the 2008–2010 period, aimed at better understanding internal structures and the roles of individuals in crossborder polydrug networks under pressures from rivals and state leadership targeting. In addition to historical archival data to build a qualitative case study, it uses arrest warrant data (an emergency wiretap application and a Racketeering Influenced Corrupt Organizations Act or RICO indictment) from the FSO drug network investigation in order to visualize the structure of the cross border network and to explore research questions regarding the relationship between actor centrality/network topography metrics and variables of interest including organizational role, age, gender, number of prior arrests, location of criminal activity, and location of residence using social network analysis (SNA). Findings included: narcotics distributors, drug couriers, and enforcers for the network all had higher centrality in the network, age was only slightly negatively correlated with eigenvector centrality, gender had no bearing on centrality, the number of prior arrests also had no bearing on degree or betweenness centrality, but did positively correlate with eigenvector centrality. Findings also demonstrated faction subgroup analysis had considerable overlap with both law-enforcement-reported-address and location of criminal activity (coded as actor attributes). This finding suggests it may be possible to predict the location of criminal activity and residence through faction analysis in other binational trafficking networks.