By Daniel C. Semenza PhD 1 2 3, Ian A. Silver PhD 4, Richard Stansfield PhD 1, Brielle Savage MA 5

Firearm dealer presence and density are associated with rates of local firearm violence, a significant threat to public safety and collective well-being in the U.S. However, the authors are unaware of any studies that have examined how dealer presence and absence influence shooting rates over time using longitudinal data.

Methods

This study investigates the relationship between licensed firearm dealer presence and firearm violence using longitudinal data from over 20,000 census tracts in the 100 largest cities in the U.S. from 2015 to 2022. The analysis was conducted in 2025. The association between licensed firearm dealer openings and closings and total shooting rates was analyzed across 1-, 2-, and 3-year lag periods to account for differences in how dealer presence influences local firearm violence dynamics over time.

Results

Findings demonstrate that neighborhoods with newly opened firearm dealers experience increases in shootings that sustain after 2 and 3 years. No significant effects were found for firearm dealer closings.

Conclusions

The results highlight a complex temporal dynamic, suggesting that firearm availability through licensed firearm dealers may influence patterns of shootings within communities, particularly when new dealers open in neighborhoods without a prior dealer presence over time.

American Journal of Preventive Medicine 10 October 2025, 108079 In Press, Corrected Proof