By Daniel C. Semenza PhD 1 2 3, Ian A. Silver PhD 4, Richard Stansfield PhD 1, Brielle Savage MA 5

Firearm dealer presence and density are associated with rates of local firearm violence, a significant threat to public safety and collective well-being in the U.S. However, the authors are unaware of any studies that have examined how dealer presence and absence influence shooting rates over time using longitudinal data.

Methods

This study investigates the relationship between licensed firearm dealer presence and firearm violence using longitudinal data from over 20,000 census tracts in the 100 largest cities in the U.S. from 2015 to 2022. The analysis was conducted in 2025. The association between licensed firearm dealer openings and closings and total shooting rates was analyzed across 1-, 2-, and 3-year lag periods to account for differences in how dealer presence influences local firearm violence dynamics over time.

Results

Findings demonstrate that neighborhoods with newly opened firearm dealers experience increases in shootings that sustain after 2 and 3 years. No significant effects were found for firearm dealer closings.

Conclusions

The results highlight a complex temporal dynamic, suggesting that firearm availability through licensed firearm dealers may influence patterns of shootings within communities, particularly when new dealers open in neighborhoods without a prior dealer presence over time.

American Journal of Preventive Medicine 10 October 2025, 108079 In Press, Corrected Proof

By Lin Liu, Jiayu Chang, Dongping Long, and Heng Liu

Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called “the nearest crime distance”, is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolated location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec; 19(23): 15525.