By Asian Racing Federation

The ARF’s latest compendium of 2 major reports and 18 articles collates the Council’s latest research on the threat of illegal betting markets to the integrity of racing and other sports. From February 2023to April 2024, the ARF Council's Bulletins have been shedding light on the ways technological breakthroughs can be exploited by organized crime, all of which are now included in one edition.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2024. 192p.

By Asian Racing Federation

This report examines Mainland China’s crackdown on illegal betting from 2018 to mid-2021, its background, purpose and impact. It is based on official announcements and statistics, 315 Mainland Chinese media articles related to illegal betting, and English-language reports. The report details:

·         Why China is so concerned about illegal betting

·         Insights into the scale of the problem

·         The crackdown’s impact on wider illegal betting in Asia

·         Notable shared characteristics of illegal betting operations

·         Why China’s crackdown is relevant to other jurisdictions

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2021. 14p.

By Erica Gaston and Fiona Mangan

Reconceptualize peace operation tools in ways that would better respond to transnational organized crime, including elevating it as a priority task or considering transnationally operational missions. Position UN entities and missions for more informed political economy-focused responses, including through cultivating staff expertise related to anti-corruption and financial crime, and improving whole-of-mission intelligence capacity. Protect and reinforce transnational monitoring and enforcement tools, including revamping sanctions regimes, protecting and buttressing panels of experts, and supporting civil society or private sector information flows and watchdog activities. Consider issues related to organized crime and trafficking in prevention and peacebuilding, including national prevention strategies, mediation and good offices, and peacebuilding forums and programming  

 New York: United Nations University, Centre for Policy Research, 2024. 15p.  

By Kevin Brookes and Édouard Hesse

Bringing new and innovative ideas to light and advancing liberal reforms is the core mission of the European Liberal Forum. We do not do this alone but in close cooperation with a network of member and partner organizations across Europe. The present English translation of an original report by the French liberal think-tank GenerationLibre is part of this broader effort. Through this collaboration, we hope that the report’s important messages will reach a wider audience, in Europe and beyond. What better topic to start our collaboration than cannabis, as plans for the liberalization of the drug unfold across the continent. In December 2021, Malta became the first EU Member State to legalize the cultivation and personal consumption of cannabis. The new German government is contemplating similar legalization, and other countries could follow suit. Legalizing is a difficult endeavor, as this report shows, but a necessary one since the detrimental consequences of criminalization have never been felt more clearly. Prohibition is a failure. It has not managed to stem the rise in cannabis consumption rates, either in Europe or worldwide; it has failed to protect users from the most acute forms of harm; and it has contributed to the growth of criminal networks. This can be seen in Europe, where entire swathes of our cities are under the control of organized crime, whose main revenues originate from the illegal cannabis business. Those who prohibition should in theory protect the most, youngsters who are most at risk of harm when using the drug, are the main victims, sometimes literally, from the current situation. Prohibition is also at odds with our liberal values. The state should inform and provide a helping hand to those who err but should not prosecute and imprison people who have freely decided to engage in risky practices. The law should refrain from expressing moral judgments and only prohibit behaviors that bring significant harm to others or society. From this perspective, there is only a weak basis for prohibiting cannabis, a substance far less problematic for public health than alcohol and tobacco  Fully legalising cannabis is the only way forward. But decriminalization is only a first step towards the inclusion of cannabis in the normal legal channels of the economy. It would not only constitute a significant reform of our police and criminal justice systems, but it would also enable public authorities to devise an effective public health policy, targeting youngsters especially. It would also allow an entirely new economic sector to flourish, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across Europe and generating a considerable amount of revenue for the public purse. Based on a systematic and thorough review of past and current experiences in cannabis legalization, this report shows, perhaps unsurprisingly, that, as in many other areas, free market solutions are superior to state planning and state monopolies. Only a legal solution that is sufficiently cheap and competitive can replace the black market and bring the benefits expected from legalization. The state should regulate the product and ensure that those who participate in the cannabis business offer sufficient guarantees but it should not arbitrarily set prices or restrict distribution channels – to do so would run the risk of having legalized ‘for nothing’. Europe has all the cards in hand to be at the forefront of drug policy reform and show the rest of the world that another path is possible. Courage and method are all we now need  

Brussels:  European Liberal Forum EUPF , 2022. 53p.

By Institute for Strategic Dialogue

From mainstream to extreme, from far left to far right, and large platforms to fringe ecosystems, antisemitism on social media is a universal challenge. For many years and across different events, geographies, and languages, ISD has sought to understand, track, and analyze online antisemitism. This document aims to synthesize ISD’s findings, providing a summary of relevant literature as a tool for informing the work of ISD’s Coalition to Counter Online Antisemitism.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 17p.

By The Institute for Strategic Dialogue

In the last year, a loose network of actors from Bordeaux to Toulouse to Paris targeted drag events aimed at all-ages audiences for protest, harassment, and abuse. The behaviors and dynamics observed among these actors echo and mirror those observed in other parts of the world, particularly the US. While anti-drag action in France remains marginal compared to the activity witnessed in the US, UK, and Australia, it nonetheless emerged as a phenomenon from a standing start in 2022. March 2023 saw the nation’s first in-person protest at an all-ages drag event in Paris, and two months later a far-right group protested with banners and a smoke bomb outside of a library hosting a drag queen story hour (DQSH) for children in the small village of Saint-Senoux. A seemingly unlikely group of actors is leading this charge. The French anti-gender movement, which was at the heart of the movement against equal marriage in the early 2010s, has been joined by far-right parties and politicians, extremist groups, COVID-19 skeptics, and assorted conspiracy theorists. All are seeking to cancel drag events through tactics of protest, petitions, harassment, misinformation, and intimidation. This briefing provides an in-depth analysis of five cases of anti-drug mobilization in the period December 2022 – May 2023, using a combination of ethnographic methods and social media data analysis to examine activity related to each case. The first was in Bordeaux, the second in Lamballe-Armor, the third in Toulouse, the fourth in Paris, and the fifth in Saint-Senoux. While the earlier campaigns largely manifested online with limited in-person mobilization, the two most recent events saw increased offline activity. This report aims to summarise the key narratives, tactics, and actors involved in anti-drag action in France, and how these mobilizations are tied to anti-LGBTQ+ activity in France more broadly. However, given the small number of instances of anti-drug activism in France, the conclusions of this report are indicative and tentative.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 24p.

By Tobias Kammersgaard  , Kristian Relsted Fahnøe  , Nanna Kappel  , Katrine Schepelern Johansen , Esben Houborg 

Based on a survey (n = 249) and qualitative interviews (n = 38) with marginalized people who use drugs (PWUDs) in Copenhagen, Denmark, we investigate the experiences of this group with the police in a context where drug possession had been depenalized in and around drug consumption rooms (DCRs). Our findings point to positive experiences with the police, especially with the local community police in the depenalization zone, who refrained from drug law enforcement and practiced ’harm reduction policing.’ However, marginalized PWUDs also reported that they were still targeted for drug possession by other sections of the police despite the depenalization policy. Specifically, the drug squad of the police would continue to confiscate illicit drugs for investigatory purposes to counter organized drug crime, as well as continue to target user-dealers who were not formally included in the depenalization policy. The findings illustrate how marginalized PWUDs still found themselves in a precarious legal situation without any legal rights to possess the drugs that they were dependent on, even though possession of drugs had been depenalized in and around DCRs.

International Journal of Drug Policy 127 (2024) 104393 

By Pablo Ruiz, Sergio Cabrales, Andrés Medaglia, Olga Sarmiento

Bicycle theft and robbery affect the number of bicycle users because since repetitive occurrence of these crimes may stop victims from bicycling. Interest in studying these particular crimes has grown in the past few years and studies have focused on analyzing preventive measures. Criminology theories have been the base for these studies as they associate different factors of the environment and social behavior with the occurrence of criminal activities. This paper aims to analyze bicycle theft and robbery in the city of Bogotá, Colombia using a fixed effects Poisson model for panel data between 2014 and 2017. Different environmental factors such as violent crimes, public amenities, land use features, and socioeconomic attributes, were evaluated against the occurrence of these incidents within specified areas that divide the city. Results show that violent areas increase the risk of bicycles being stolen, as well as areas with a high number of bicycle racks and bus stations. Additionally, results show that there is no significant evidence that socioeconomic differences are determinants to the occurrence of these crimes. The results of this study are relevant to potential policy measures regarding bicycle theft and robbery prevention, which range from security measures in certain areas given the evident relation that violence has on these crimes, crime hot spot intervention and environmental design towards crime prevention. 

Unidas, 2018. 

BY Kirsten Eddy, Michael Lipka, Katerina Eva Matsa, Naomi Forman-Katz, Sarah Naseer, Christopher St. Aubin and Elisa Shearer

The more news about crime that Americans receive, the more likely they are to be concerned, angry or feel personally at risk, but large numbers of people are dissatisfied with the local crime news they get and just as many people get information about crime trends from people they know as from local news outlets, a new Pew Research Center report from the Pew-Knight Initiative has found.

The report, based on a survey in January of more than 5,000 randomly selected adults, found there is little difference between Republicans and Democrats in how they consume local crime information and how concerned they are about it, but Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view violent crime as a very big problem for the country as a whole, the study found.

While most respondents expressed interest in learning the details of crimes, tips about how to stay safe, and broader patterns in local crime, few of those who were interested said it is easy to find news and information about each topic

Washington, DC: Pew Research Center 2024, 47p.

By U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs

The First Step Act of 2018 (FSA) mandated the development and implementation of a risk and needs assessment system in the Federal Bureau of Prisons (FBOP). The FSA also required that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) review, validate, and publicly release the risk and needs assessment system on an annual basis. The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) contracted with Dr. Rhys Hester and Dr. Ryan Labrecque as consultants for the annual review and revalidation of the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN). This document is the fourth review and revalidation report, following USDOJ (2021a), USDOJ (2021b), and USDOJ (2023). The previous review and revalidation reports included FBOP release cohorts from fiscal year (FY) 2009 through FY 2018. The current report analyzes a subsequent cohort of FY 2019 FBOP releasees and evaluates PATTERN for its predictive accuracy, dynamic validity, and racial and ethnic neutrality, as mandated by the FSA. This study analyzes one-, two-, and three-year recidivism outcomes, assesses what proportions of change in risk scores and levels are influenced by the current age item, and provides additional descriptive information on individual items, risk scores and levels, and outcomes by race and ethnic group. Finally, this report provides updates on the actions taken by NIJ and DOJ in the past year and the ongoing efforts to review and improve PATTERN. The FY 2019 cohort study finds that PATTERN remains a strong and valid predictor of general and violent recidivism at the one-, two-, and three-year follow-up periods, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistics ranging from .745 to .776. Comparisons of recidivism rates by risk level category (RLC) and predictive value analyses by risk level grouping also continue to indicate that such risk level designations provide meaningful distinctions of recidivism risk. In addition, individuals can change their risk scores and levels during confinement beyond mere age effects. Those who reduced their RLC from first to last assessment were shown to have the lowest recidivism rates, followed by those who maintained the same risk level and those with a higher risk level, respectively. While the findings continue to indicate PATTERN’s accuracy across the five racial and ethnic groups analyzed, there remains evidence that the instruments predict differently across those groups, including overprediction of risk of Black, Hispanic, and Asian males and females, relative to White individuals, on the general recidivism tools.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs 2024. 36p.

By Olivia Mercier, Sarah Yu Fu, Rachel Filler, Alexie Leclerc, Kari Sampsel, Karine Fournier, Mark Walker, Shi Wu Wen, Katherine Muldoon

Background: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a prevalent global health problem. IPV that occurs before pregnancy often continues during the perinatal period, resulting in ongoing violence and many adverse maternal, obstetrical, and neonatal outcomes.

Objectives: This scoping review is designed to broadly capture all potential interventions for perinatal IPV and describe their core components and measured outcomes.

Search Methods: We conducted a search for empirical studies describing IPV interventions in the perinatal population in June 2022. The search was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, Applied Social Sciences Index & Abstracts, ClinicalTrials.gov and MedRxiv. Hand-searching of references from select articles was also performed.

Selection Criteria: Included studies described an intervention for those experiencing IPV during the perinatal period, including 12 months before pregnancy, while pregnant or in the 12 months post-partum. The search encompassed January 2000 to June 2022 and only peer-reviewed studies written in either English or French were included. Included interventions focused on the survivor exposed to IPV, rather than healthcare professionals administering the intervention. Interventions designed to reduce IPV revictimization or any adverse maternal, obstetrical, or neonatal health outcomes as well as social outcomes related to IPV victimization were included.

Data Collections and Analysis: We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Campbell Collaboration.

Main Results: In total, 10,079 titles and abstracts were screened and 226 proceeded to full text screening. A total of 67 studies included perinatal IPV interventions and were included in the final sample. These studies included a total of 27,327 participants. Included studies originated from 19 countries, and the majority were randomized controlled trials (n = 43). Most studies were of moderate or low quality. Interventions included home visitation, educational modules, counseling, and cash transfer programs and occurred primarily in community obstetrician and gynecologist clinics, hospitals, or in participants' homes. Most interventions focused on reducing the revictimization of IPV (n = 38), improving survivor knowledge or acceptance of violence, knowledge of community resources, and actions to reduce violence (n = 28), and improving maternal mental health outcomes (n = 26). Few studies evaluated the effect of perinatal IPV interventions on obstetrical, neonatal, or child health outcomes.

Authors' Conclusion(s): The majority of intervention studies for perinatal IPV focus on reducing revictimization and improving mental health outcomes, very few included obstetrical, neonatal, and other physical health outcomes. Future interventions should place a larger emphasis on targeting maternal and neonatal outcomes to have the largest possible impact on the lives and families of IPV survivors and their infants.

Campbell Systematic Reviews, Volume 20, Issue 3, September 2024

By Andres Ham Gonzalez, Juanita Ruiz

We estimate the effects of drug-related violence on individual labor market outcomes in a transit country. Transit countries do not have enough market power to determine the global supply or demand of drugs yet must deal with the consequences of drug trafficking activities. We implement a Bartik-type instrumental variables strategy which assumes that violence in Honduran municipalities located along drug transport routes changes when coca production in Colombia grows or contracts. Our results show that drug-related violence has negative effects on extensive and intensive margin labor market outcomes for transit country workers and has greater effects on women than men.

IZA Working Paper 17126, Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics - IZA, 2024. 

By Sanna Bergvall, Núria Rodríguez-Planas:

Most empirical studies indicate that becoming a mother is an augmenting factor for the perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV). Using rich population-wide hospital records data from Sweden, we conduct a stacked DiD analysis comparing the paths of women two years before and after the birth of their first child with same-age women who are several quarters older when giving birth to their first child and find that, in contrast to the consensus view, violence sharply decreases with pregnancy and motherhood. This decline has both a short-term and longer-term component, with the temporary decline in IPV covering most of the pregnancy until the child is 6 months old, mimicking a temporary decrease in hospital visits for alcohol abuse by the children's fathers. The more persistent decline is driven by women who leave the relationship after the birth of the child. Our evidence is not supportive of alternative mechanisms including suspicious hospitalizations, an overall reduction in hospital visits or selection in in seeking medical care, mothers’ added value as the main nurturer, or mothers’ drop in relative earnings within the household. Our findings suggest the need to push for public health awareness campaigns underscoring the risk of victimization associated with substance abuse and to also provide women with more support to identify and leave a violent relationship

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics - IZA, 2024

By Christopher S. Carpenter and Hai V. Nguyen

Bans on menthol cigarettes have been adopted throughout the European Union, proposed by the US Food and Drug Administration, and enacted by legislatures in Massachusetts and California. Yet there is very limited evidence on their effects using real-world policy variation. We study the intended and unintended effects of menthol cigarette bans in Canada, where seven provinces banned them prior to a nationwide ban in 2018. Difference-in-differences models using national survey data return no evidence that provincial menthol cigarette bans affected overall smoking rates for youths or adults. Although menthol cigarette smoking fell for both youths and adults, youths increased nonmenthol cigarette smoking, and adults shifted cigarette purchases to unregulated First Nations reserves. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for substitution and evasion responses in the design of stricter tobacco regulations

Cambridge, MA:  NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, 2020. 66p.

By Matthew J. Lindquist,  Eleonora Patacchin, Michael Vlassopoulos., Yves Zenou 

We study spillover effects within co-offending networks by leveraging the deaths of co-offenders for causal identification. Our results demonstrate that the death of a co-offender significantly reduces the criminal activities of other network members. We observe a decaying pattern in the magnitude of these spillover effects: individuals directly linked to a deceased offender experience the most significant impact, followed by those two steps away, and then those three steps away. Moreover, we find that the death of a more central co-offender leads to a larger reduction in aggregate crime. We also provide evidence consistent with a new theoretical prediction suggesting that the loss of a co-offender shrinks the future information set of offenders, altering their perceptions of the probability of being convicted and consequently affecting their criminal behavior. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding spillover for policymakers seeking to develop more effective strategies for crime prevention.  

  Bonn:: Institute of Labor Economics - IZA, 2024.

By Janique Kroese, Wim Bernasco, Aart C. Liefbroer, Jan Rouwendal

Studies investigating the role of single-parent families in adolescent delinquency have seldom differentiated between types of single-parent families. Furthermore, they have typically assumed that parental disruption is a discrete event marking an abrupt change between dual-parenthood and single-parenthood. Using Dutch longitudinal population register data, we estimated fixed-effects panel models to assess (1) whether the event of parental disruption, either by parental separation or by parental death, increases subsequent adolescent delinquency and (2) whether parental disruption, either by parental separation or by parental death, has anticipatory, immediate, or delayed effects on adolescent delinquency. Our results showed that both parental separation and parental death seem to boost adolescent delinquency, and we found no difference between these types of single-parent families. However, when distinguishing between anticipatory, short-term, and long-term effects, we found a short-term increase in adolescent delinquency after a parental separation and an anticipatory reduction in adolescent delinquency before a parental death. Future research should pay more attention to diversity in the composition of single parent families, as well as to the anticipatory, short-term, and long-term consequences.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:288–308

By Julia Tolmie, Rachel Smith, and Denise Wilson

How intimate partner violence (IPV) is conceptualized affects what we see when we look at situations involving IPV and what we think the solutions to the problem of IPV are—either in individual cases or in the development of broader legal and policy responses. In this article, it is suggested that while conceptualizing IPV as coercive control is an improvement over previous understandings, it does not go far enough. Coercive control must be located within a broader conceptualization of IPV as a form of social and systemic entrapment if it is not to operate in a harmful manner for victim-survivors.

Violence Against WomenVolume 30, Issue 1, January 2024, Pages 54-74

By Miguel Basto-Pereira, David P. Farrington, Laura Maciel

This work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:242–264

By Ido Kilovaty

The Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack, which shut down gas supply to the entire East Coast back in May 2021, has sparked debate as to the regulation of the pipeline’s cybersecurity. After ten years of inaction on the matter, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has issued two mandatory directives on pipeline cybersecurity. This Article delves into the propriety of the TSA as a pipeline security regulator, as well as the incomplete and ineffective approach currently laid out in the TSA’s pipeline cybersecurity directives. This Article argues that there may be other agencies more suitable for the task, such as the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, acting under the auspices of the Department of Energy. It also provides specific recommendations as to the substance of any prospective pipeline cybersecurity regulation, such as the creation of more open-ended and flexible cybersecurity objectives as opposed to the current approach of prescriptive standards.

Houston Law Review, Vol. 60, 2023, Kilovaty, Ido, Cybersecuring the Pipeline (March 29, 2022). Houston Law Review, Vol. 60, 2023,

By Corrie Williams, Tara Renae McGee, Shannon Walding, Christine E. W. Bond

While conduct problem behaviour initiated in early childhood often escalates in frequency and seriousness through adolescence, a notable deceleration is typically seen by mid-adolescence. It has been hypothesised that prosocial behaviour, characterised by acts like sharing and comforting, may play a role in this deceleration. However, there is a distinct gap in the current literature when it comes to understanding the temporal dynamics between the acceleration of prosocial behaviours and the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour. This study seeks to bridge this gap. Using a General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM) and data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), we investigated temporal dynamics and sequence of how the acceleration of prosocial behaviour influences the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour between ages 4 and 15. Results indicate that increases in prosocial behaviour facilitate the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour, with increases in prosocial behaviour preceding decreases in conduct problem behaviour. Further, we show a cumulative effect of increases in prosocial behaviour on decreases in conduct problem behaviour over time. This knowledge provides a foundation for understanding how timely prevention and intervention strategies that include the mechanisms for increasing prosocial behaviour may interrupt the con duct problem behaviour trajectories of children and adolescents.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:169–192