By M. Dylan Spencer, Cory Schnell, Samuel E. DeWitt

Objectives: Public transportation systems experience dynamic changes over time to accommodate growing cities, yet evaluations of their impact on crime often focus on shorter, static periods. This study examines the long-term relationship between light rail expansion and crime, using a 20-year observation period in Charlotte, NC. We analyze changes in crime patterns near original, expanded, and planned light rail station locations. Methods: We conducted a quasi-experimental program evaluation of the opening of light rail stations on crime at place. We estimated Poisson regression models with fixed effects and difference in difference models to analyze crime incidents at street intersections surrounding light rail stations across varying spatial distances. Results: Our findings suggest that the expansion of the light rail system led to an increase in crime around train stations. We observe a significant intervention effect across multiple crime categories and spatial distances. These analyses suggest the effect appears stronger after the expansion of light rail service to additional train stations. Conclusions: These results have implications for a wide range of community stakeholders involved with the planning of public transportation. Given the evolving demand for transit systems, our findings highlight the need for crime prevention policies to accompany infrastructure expansion and mitigate crime.

J Exp Criminol (2025), 39p.

By Michael Townsley · Benjamin Hutchins

This article aims to provide insights regarding crime problems affecting the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) retail sector, focusing primarily on the size and range of criminal behaviours. The research incorporated an online survey of retailers and police statistics. The study finds that the cost of retail crime increased by 28% over the last 4 years, against 25% growth in revenue. It also reveals that shoplifting remains the most significant and costly economic problem facing retailers, followed by employee theft. Additionally, fraud, notably in online channels, will remain a concern for the foreseeable future. We examine potential explanations and interpretations for retail crime through an environmental criminological lens. Increased research and involvement of researchers hold tremendous potential for reducing retail crime and preventing its growth in the future

Crime Prevention and Community Safety 26(2):1-23, 2024

By B. Boxerman and K. Cundiff

This report focuses on reported shoplifting in Chicago, IL, and Los Angeles, CA, from 2018 through 2023. It uses incident location data to examine reported shoplifting prevalence and concentration in both cities and how these have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also examines how patterns in reported shoplifting may be related to the concentration of retail establishments. The pandemic is central to this analysis because property crime patterns, especially for larceny and shoplifting, are sensitive to changes in patterns of activity, such as the major shifts in public life that occurred under stay-at-home orders in response to the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report is focused on the periods directly before, during, and after the pandemic to lend context to the increased interest and attention related to shoplifting at the national level.

Key Takeaways

In Chicago, the year-end rate of reported shoplifting was 11.6% lower for 2023 than it was for 2018. In Los Angeles, the rate for 2023 was 77% higher than it was for 2018.

Prior to the pandemic, the shoplifting rate in Los Angeles was less than half that of Chicago. By the end of 2023, the difference between the two cities had narrowed and the Los Angeles rate was 17.7% lower than that of Chicago.

In Chicago, the top 5% of all reported shoplifting locations by address had 68.5% of all reported shoplifting from 2018 to 2023. In Los Angeles, the top 5% of addresses had 62.8% of all reported shoplifting during this period.

Shoplifting patterns between the cities differed greatly. Chicago shoplifting clustered in two geographically close areas, while shoplifting in Los Angeles was distributed across multiple smaller areas that were less concentrated than in Chicago.

In Chicago, areas with substantial concentrations of retail outlets did not consistently experience concentrated amounts of shoplifting. In Los Angeles, however, there was considerable overlap between retail and shoplifting clusters.

Both cities saw large drops in reported shoplifting in 2020, likely due to store closures at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. For both cities, in 2020 and 2021, shoplifting was less prevalent and concentrated in fewer areas.

Portions of both cities that were not high-shoplifting areas before and during the pandemic began to experience increases in shoplifting after the pandemic (2022 and 2023).

Shoplifting in both cities was often highly concentrated in places with high concentrations of other crimes, such as other types of theft and violent offense

Washington DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2024.

By Daniel Birks, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Nick Malleson

An agent-based model is a form of complex systems model that is capable of simulating how the micro-level behavior of individual system entities contributes to macro-level system outcomes. Researchers draw on theory and evidence to identify the key elements of a given system and specify behaviors of agents that simulate the individual entities of that system—be they cells, animals, or people. The model is then used to run simulations in which agents interact with one another and the resulting outcomes are observed. These models enable researchers to explore proposed causal explanations of real-world outcomes, experiment with the impacts that potential interventions might have on system behavior, or generate counterfactual scenarios against which real-world events can be compared. In this review, we discuss the application of agent-based modeling within the field of criminology as well as key challenges and future directions for research.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:75-95 January 2025)

By Robin Joy

Routine Activity Theory, a criminological theory that describes the circumstances in which crime occurs, can be applied to crimes against vulnerable adults and the elderly. Using a variety of data sources this report examines this theory and finds: 1. Vulnerable Adults are more likely to be victimized by someone they know. 2. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes have criminal histories that indicate a specialization in criminal activity, compared to those of the general offending population. 3. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes are significantly older than the general offending population. 4. Most crimes against the vulnerable and the elderly take place in a private home. 5. The elderly are more likely to be victims of larceny, while the vulnerable adults are more likely to be victims of fraud. Routine Activity Theory can explain the victimization against the vulnerable and elderly. Using this framework, policy makers and stakeholders can begin to create policies and programs that can help keep vulnerable and elderly Vermonters safe.   

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2022. 17p.

By Shannon J. Linning , Kate Bowers and John E. Eck

Considerable research shows that crime is concentrated at a few proprietary places: addresses and facilities. Emerging research suggests that proprietary places may radiate crime: activities at a place increase the risk of crime in the area around it. Weaknesses in the research create uncertainty about radiation, so we need more rigorous research. To conduct this research, we need a theory of crime radiation that operates at two spatial levels: the proprietary place and the area. This paper describes such a theory. Our theory states that crime radiation stems from the interaction between place management decisions at the place and offenders searching for opportunities in the area. Place managers create crime opportunities inside and outside their places. Offenders exploit place managers’ creations by deliberately searching for opportunities or by chancing upon the opportunities. The ways place managers and offenders interact gives rise to three types of crime radiation: hot dot, veiled dot, and cold dot. Finally, we propose questions crime scientists should answer to better understand crime radiation.

Crime Science (2024) 13:32