By B. Boxerman and K. Cundiff

This report focuses on reported shoplifting in Chicago, IL, and Los Angeles, CA, from 2018 through 2023. It uses incident location data to examine reported shoplifting prevalence and concentration in both cities and how these have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It also examines how patterns in reported shoplifting may be related to the concentration of retail establishments. The pandemic is central to this analysis because property crime patterns, especially for larceny and shoplifting, are sensitive to changes in patterns of activity, such as the major shifts in public life that occurred under stay-at-home orders in response to the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic. This report is focused on the periods directly before, during, and after the pandemic to lend context to the increased interest and attention related to shoplifting at the national level.

Key Takeaways

In Chicago, the year-end rate of reported shoplifting was 11.6% lower for 2023 than it was for 2018. In Los Angeles, the rate for 2023 was 77% higher than it was for 2018.

Prior to the pandemic, the shoplifting rate in Los Angeles was less than half that of Chicago. By the end of 2023, the difference between the two cities had narrowed and the Los Angeles rate was 17.7% lower than that of Chicago.

In Chicago, the top 5% of all reported shoplifting locations by address had 68.5% of all reported shoplifting from 2018 to 2023. In Los Angeles, the top 5% of addresses had 62.8% of all reported shoplifting during this period.

Shoplifting patterns between the cities differed greatly. Chicago shoplifting clustered in two geographically close areas, while shoplifting in Los Angeles was distributed across multiple smaller areas that were less concentrated than in Chicago.

In Chicago, areas with substantial concentrations of retail outlets did not consistently experience concentrated amounts of shoplifting. In Los Angeles, however, there was considerable overlap between retail and shoplifting clusters.

Both cities saw large drops in reported shoplifting in 2020, likely due to store closures at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. For both cities, in 2020 and 2021, shoplifting was less prevalent and concentrated in fewer areas.

Portions of both cities that were not high-shoplifting areas before and during the pandemic began to experience increases in shoplifting after the pandemic (2022 and 2023).

Shoplifting in both cities was often highly concentrated in places with high concentrations of other crimes, such as other types of theft and violent offense

Washington DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2024.

By Kristin Finklea

Retailers and retail industry advocacy groups have expressed concern about what they see as a general increase in retail crime, and more specifically an increase in organized retail crime (ORC). Reports of incidents where individuals, occasionally acting in flash mobs, storm stores to steal large amounts of items, and at times assault employees, have underscored these concerns. Some law enforcement agencies have increased resources and information sharing to counter these crimes. Additionally, some retail organizations have urged policymakers and law enforcement to take steps to educate the public and crack down on this apparent increase in retail crime, and more specifically ORC. A primary barrier to measuring ORC accurately is a lack of a consistent, widely accepted definition that can be used in a systematic and comprehensive effort to collect and report these data. Nonetheless, there is general consensus that ORC involves coordinated theft with the intent to resell for financial gain. ORC typically refers to large-scale retail theft and fraud by organized groups of professional shoplifters (or boosters). Organized crime rings resell illegally acquired merchandise via a variety of fencing operations such as flea markets, swap meets, pawn shops, and online marketplaces. ORC differs from shoplifting in that traditional shoplifters tend to steal merchandise for personal use. A number of factors contribute to the lack of comprehensive criminal justice data on ORC. At the federal level, there is currently no law prohibiting organized retail crime that could be used to help document the number of ORC incidents known to federal law enforcement, specifically. Combating retail theft has primarily been handled by state and local law enforcement under state criminal laws. While state laws prohibiting theft are the statutes that state and local law enforcement and prosecutors have often relied on to investigate and prosecute ORC, over 30 states have enacted ORC-specific laws. However, these laws differ by state and there is no centralized reporting system for ORC-related crimes. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, National Incident-Based Reporting System collects data on thefts reported to state and local law enforcement, including shoplifting; however, it does not capture ORC specifically. In the absence of comprehensive data on ORC, snapshots of data from various sources may offer insight into its extent and nature. For instance, 78.1% of respondents to the National Retail Federation’s 2023 National Retail Security Survey indicated that the threat of ORC was more of a priority than it had been in the prior year. While some observers believe that ORC is a national problem, others disagree, citing anecdotal and high-profile flash mob thefts and smash-and-grabs as driving this concern. Nonetheless, there is debate over the federal government’s role in deterring ORC and sanctioning various actors that may be involved in committing or aiding these crimes. A principal underlying issue is the lack of data on the scope of ORC to inform this debate. Without these data, Congress may not be able to accurately assess the proper role of the federal government. As such, policymakers may debate various options regarding data on ORC, including how new or existing mechanisms for collecting national crime data could be used to capture these data and help inform policymakers on the prevalence and nature of this type of crime.

Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2024. 11p.