By Shelby Hickman, Charlotte Lopez-Jauffret, Stephanie Fahy, Vanessa Masick

Abt Global (Abt) conducted a study for the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) to identify and recommend methods for estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the United States (U.S.). This study supports BJS’s mission to collect, analyze, publish, and disseminate information on crime, criminal offenders, victims of crime, and the operation of justice. As part of the study, Abt completed an environmental scan and held an Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation with BJS in February 2024 that included experts invited to serve on the Advisory Panel. The environmental scan yielded 24 research articles that provided or discussed prevalence of any form of human trafficking spanning geographies inside and outside of the U.S. Between 2017 and 2023, seven articles included random sampling to estimate trafficking prevalence, five used link tracking, three used convenience sampling, four used capture-recapture/multiple systems estimation, and four used respondent-driven sampling. A summary of each sampling method is included in the findings for the environmental scan in Volume I, including strengths and limitations for each type of method. Additionally, key recommendations (balancing precision and generalizability, aligning methods to data sources available, and aligning methods to the characteristics of the population of interest) are included from the environmental scan together with considerations for how BJS can develop a methodology that can produce an unbiased prevalence estimate of human trafficking in the U.S. The Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation occurred on February 28, 2024, and included subject matter experts, BJS and National Institute of Justice representatives, and Abt Global study team members. The meeting resulted in key decision points for estimating human trafficking victimization in the country, including considerations around trafficking type, geography, methodology, and data access and quality. Possible priority areas for trafficking type and trafficking subpopulations are presented in the meeting summary included in this report. Findings from the environmental scan and the expert panel meeting were used to develop three recommendations for a pilot study to test the feasibility of estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the U.S. Capture-recapture is the preferred method since it has the strongest capability for estimating the prevalence of hidden populations, including human trafficking. Vincent link-trace sampling is the second recommendation, followed by random sampling. This report is arranged in three volumes: 1) Findings from the Environmental Scan; 2) BJS Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation Meeting Summary; and 3) Recommendations for a National Estimate Pilot Study.

Rockville, MD: Abt Global, 2025. 66p

By Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry. & Hanna Hernandez

The global 2020 coronavirus pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the operations and actions of local, state, and national governments across all areas of criminal justice. The unique characteristics of this pandemic trend toward short- and long-term consequences as significant changes to criminal justice and legal outcomes. To respond to these impacts, the Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2022 State Justice Statistics (SJS) grant from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The SAC sought the grant to increase access to statistical data and create new metrics and indicators to enhance the integrated criminal justice database — the Justice Data Warehouse (JDW) — in efforts to strategically and analytically evaluate the pandemic’s impacts in criminal justice. Through this grant, the Washington SAC leveraged and built upon the JDW to expand the data variables by creating COVID-19 metrics and indicators to help assess and account for COVID-19 impacts in the criminal justice and legal system.

Olympia: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center. 2024. 49p.

By Aisha M Abubakar, Rowland G Seymour, Alison Gardner, Imogen Lambert, Rachel Fyson, Nicola Wright

Background

Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights ‘jigsaw pieces’ of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation.

Methods

We reviewed English Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) data and Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) from 2017 to 22. Data relevant to exploitation and cognitive impairment were analysed using summary statistics and ‘analysis of variance’.

Results

Despite estimates suggesting cognitive impairments may be prevalent among people experiencing exploitation in England, national datasets miss opportunities to illuminate this issue. Although SAC data include statistics on support needs and various forms of abuse and exploitation, they lack intersectional data. Significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations and potential conflation between abuse and exploitation also suggest data inconsistencies. Increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services indicate that adults may be ‘slipping through the net’. SARs, although representing serious cases, provide stronger evidence linking cognitive impairment with risks of exploitation.

Conclusions

This study identifies opportunities to collect detailed information on cognitive impairment and exploitation. The extremely limited quantitative evidence-base could be enhanced using existing data channels to build a more robust picture, as well as improve prevention, identification and response efforts for ‘at-risk’ adults.

Journal of Public Health, Volume 46, Issue 4, December 2024, Pages 498–505,

By Kristin Finklea

Retailers and retail industry advocacy groups have expressed concern about what they see as a general increase in retail crime, and more specifically an increase in organized retail crime (ORC). Reports of incidents where individuals, occasionally acting in flash mobs, storm stores to steal large amounts of items, and at times assault employees, have underscored these concerns. Some law enforcement agencies have increased resources and information sharing to counter these crimes. Additionally, some retail organizations have urged policymakers and law enforcement to take steps to educate the public and crack down on this apparent increase in retail crime, and more specifically ORC. A primary barrier to measuring ORC accurately is a lack of a consistent, widely accepted definition that can be used in a systematic and comprehensive effort to collect and report these data. Nonetheless, there is general consensus that ORC involves coordinated theft with the intent to resell for financial gain. ORC typically refers to large-scale retail theft and fraud by organized groups of professional shoplifters (or boosters). Organized crime rings resell illegally acquired merchandise via a variety of fencing operations such as flea markets, swap meets, pawn shops, and online marketplaces. ORC differs from shoplifting in that traditional shoplifters tend to steal merchandise for personal use. A number of factors contribute to the lack of comprehensive criminal justice data on ORC. At the federal level, there is currently no law prohibiting organized retail crime that could be used to help document the number of ORC incidents known to federal law enforcement, specifically. Combating retail theft has primarily been handled by state and local law enforcement under state criminal laws. While state laws prohibiting theft are the statutes that state and local law enforcement and prosecutors have often relied on to investigate and prosecute ORC, over 30 states have enacted ORC-specific laws. However, these laws differ by state and there is no centralized reporting system for ORC-related crimes. The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program, National Incident-Based Reporting System collects data on thefts reported to state and local law enforcement, including shoplifting; however, it does not capture ORC specifically. In the absence of comprehensive data on ORC, snapshots of data from various sources may offer insight into its extent and nature. For instance, 78.1% of respondents to the National Retail Federation’s 2023 National Retail Security Survey indicated that the threat of ORC was more of a priority than it had been in the prior year. While some observers believe that ORC is a national problem, others disagree, citing anecdotal and high-profile flash mob thefts and smash-and-grabs as driving this concern. Nonetheless, there is debate over the federal government’s role in deterring ORC and sanctioning various actors that may be involved in committing or aiding these crimes. A principal underlying issue is the lack of data on the scope of ORC to inform this debate. Without these data, Congress may not be able to accurately assess the proper role of the federal government. As such, policymakers may debate various options regarding data on ORC, including how new or existing mechanisms for collecting national crime data could be used to capture these data and help inform policymakers on the prevalence and nature of this type of crime.

Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2024. 11p.

By Aliya Saied-Tessier

Every day, judges and magistrates make decisions in family courts that have substantial bearing on children’s lives, including where a child should live, who they should spend time with and who should have parental responsibility for them. The main consideration of every decision is the welfare of the child (s.1 Children Act 1989). Yet the family justice system has been described as ‘operating in the dark’ (Curtiss 2019, 25 June)1 without the necessary data to demonstrate that professionals, and the decisions they make, actually help children involved in proceedings.

This paper sets out the significance of data within the context of the family justice system, current limitations, and opportunities and recommendations for improvement. It covers all parts of the family justice system, from children’s social care involvement to family courts, including both public and private law proceedings.

Key points

• The family justice system has been described as ‘operating in the dark’, with fundamental data problems including a fragmented system of data owners and users, and significant data gaps.

• While professionals are working to improve data and its supporting infrastructure (and there are examples of positive innovations such as data linking e.g. Administrative Data Research (ADR) UK’s Data First family court dataset), it remains the case that the family justice system lags far behind other public services in terms of data availability and quality.

• A coherent plan involving all data owners and users in the system could seek to build on data improvement work, fill data gaps, publish more aggregate data, increase safe data linking, and raise standards of data literacy and use.

• The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) is best placed to oversee a data improvement plan and coordinate the rest of the system, building on the data mapping exercise undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen).

London: Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. 2024. 25p.

By Terry Ng-Knight, Nandita Upadhyay and Kostas Papaioannou

The evaluation of the first three transparency pilot sites, undertaken by NatCen, was published in July. The report explores the availability and accessibility of data within the family justice system in England and Wales. The findings show there are data gaps, inconsistent data collection and limited accessibility with recommendations to develop a full data strategy for the Family Justice system.

London: The National Centre for Social Research (NatCan): 2024. 28p.

By: Tracey Michelle Pyscher

As a society, we do not openly discuss domestic violence and yet its reality is front and center for children and youth whose lives are deeply shaped by it. At best, the school landscape is bleak for many, if not all, HDV youth (i.e. youth with histories of domestic violence and youth currently living with domestic violence). We know little to nothing about how HDV youth navigate school from their perspectives—how they engage with and resist educational discourses and practices and thus take up subject positions. What we do know from popular, psychological literature is that HDV youth are often objectified as troubled and deficient and this shapes their identities and experiences in school.

In this study, I discuss the challenges HDV youth face when they navigate normative and hegemonic interactions in school. I also analyze the resistive identities and performances HDV youth take up in response to interactions perceived as violating. The study is situated in a public, urban middle school and outlines how HDV youth make sense of their daily interactions with school peers and staff. The study is told through the subjective voices of three female middle school HDV youth—Jen, Mac, and Shanna. Their stories along with the voices of their caregivers offer a counter-narrative to the dominant discourses often shaping the representations of HDV youth.

Data analysis is grounded in the theoretical conceptions of critical sociocultural theory (Lewis, Enciso, & Moje, 2007), resistive ambivalence (Pyscher, 2015; Pyscher & Lozenski, 2014), and Scott’s (1990) conceptualization of hidden and public transcripts. I seek to better understand and theorize the intersections of actions, identities, practices, and discourses that HDV youth use in educational interactions. The methodological foundation of this study is fourfold: critical discourse studies (Gee, 2014), critical ethnography (Emerson, Fretz, & Shaw, 1995), geosemiotics (Scollon & Scollon, 2003), and mediated discourse analysis (Jones & Norris, 2005). Implications include the possibility of creating more liberating educational practices for youth with histories of domestic violence and marginalized youth in general. I conclude by suggesting that we consider creating more transgressive and humane school cultures that embody carnivallike practices.

University of Minnesota, March 2016

By Jeanne Batalova, Andriy Shymonyak, and Michelle Mittelstadt

  Although international migrants account for just 3.5 percent of the world’s population, their number—almost 272 million people as of 2019—is far from insubstantial. Current and historical research shows that immigration brings significant and long-lasting benefits to countries of destination and origin and to migrants and their families alike. But it also shows that immigration often comes with tremendous challenges for individuals, communities, and institutions. In the United States, a country with a long and complex immigration history, public and political debates that started well back into the 18th century about the size and type of immigration, as well as its socioeconomic impacts, show no sign of abating. And as other countries around the world become migrant-sending, receiving, or transit places (or frequently a combination), migration—whether voluntary or forced—has arguably earned a prime and enduring spot on national and international policy agendas. It also continues to capture significant public and media attention. What is often missing from these conversations is accurate, complete data about who these immigrants are, why they come and leave, and what places they occupy in the socioeconomic hierarchies of their sending and destination countries. In this edition, Immigration Data Matters, which updates an earlier Population Reference Bureau - Migration Policy Institute guide, we have significantly expanded a list of online resources that provide authoritative migration-related data and statistics to help inform understanding of this phenomenon in the United States and globally. As before, our main guiding principle is to offer data from population censuses and surveys, administrative datasets, and new analyses that can help our audience understand the size of immigrant populations and inflows and outflows, enforcement actions, public opinion, historical trends, citizenship acquisition, and many other aspects. Here we list and describe more than 250 data resources, half U.S., half international. These resources are collected or compiled by a wide range of sources, including government statistical agencies, international organizations such as the World Bank and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, and reputable research organizations. We use these resources in our own research, and while the list is by no means exhaustive, our goal is to share the most accurate, relevant, publicly available migration-related data, in one user-friendly and accessible guide. We hope this guide helps bring more knowledge to an issue area where the facts are often missing  

Migration Policy Institute and The   Population Reference Bureau , 2020. 49p.

By Laura Chiang, Stephanie Miedema, Janet Saul, James Mercy, Andrew Brooks, Alexander Butchart, Gretchen Bachman, Jennifer Hegle, Daniela Ligiero, Joseph Logan, Greta Massetti

Violence against children is a pervasive global public health and human rights issue, with 1 billion children experiencing at least one form of violence annually. Extensive scientific literature shows childhood adversity, including sexual violence, to be directly and indirectly associated with a host of health and social consequences with a dose–response effect, consequential intergenerational impacts, and sizeable economic ramifications. There is a dearth of population data on the prevalence of childhood sexual violence as well as its antecedents and health and social outcomes, which has hampered violence prevention and child protection efforts globally and locally. Population data are critical, alongside administrative data systems and statistical definitions and classification schemes, for governments to adequately begin addressing violence against children. The absence of national prevalence data has resulted in limited information to guide national policies and prevention strategies, monitor trends, and evaluate prevention efforts. Globally, lack of data on the epidemiological patterns of violence against children has resulted in deficient prioritisation for preventing and responding to this critical problem. Violence Against Children and Youth Surveys (VACS) collect comprehensive data on violence and have been implemented in over 23 countries in Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe and Latin America since 2007. VACS have also been repeated in three countries: Zimbabwe (2011; 2017), Kenya (2010; 2019) and Eswatini (2007; 2022). VACS provide extensive data on the prevalence and contexts of all forms of violence, including sexual violence, therefore allowing for targeted prevention and response efforts. VACS further provide the global research community with data to examine the epidemiological patterns of childhood sexual violence across countries and regions. VACS data have raised awareness and improved understanding of childhood sexual violence in many countries worldwide, and thereby catalysed action. This article draws on VACS reports and empirical publications, to summarise and describe patterns in childhood sexual violence across countries that have completed VACS and shed light on the global prevalence of childhood sexual violence.

BMJ Paediatr Open, 2024. 3p.

By Laura Carlson  

American criminal jurisprudence relies on confidential informants: those individuals who agree to assist police in exchange for leniency. Facing little regulation by legislatures, law enforcement has raised an informant system premised on the exploitation of vulnerabilities and free from basic safeguards that would help to mitigate the moral, mental, and physical harm informants face in the field. While this is generally problematic, the issue becomes more pronounced when considering law enforcement’s use of juveniles to combat crimes perpetrated against and among children. A juvenile’s brain is developmentally distinct from an adult’s. During late adolescence, the brain goes through major maturation processes that significantly affect a juvenile’s ability to assess risk, make forward-thinking decisions, override emotions with logic, and resist social pressures. In other words, the juvenile brain is predisposed to act adverse to self-interests. Within the context of the modern informant system, juveniles engage with police on seriously disadvantaged ground; and because agreeing to assist police has proven to be a death sentence for some, the urgency with which this must be addressed cannot be overstated. America’s tolerance of police discretion with respect to the use of juvenile informants must end. Legislatures can facilitate change by implementing safeguards aimed at mitigating the risks posed by a juvenile’s physiological predispositions. Namely, legislatures should consider implementing mandatory cooling-off periods, a statutory right to counsel, mandatory parental and judicial consent, prescribed documentation and recordkeeping requirements, and enforced training regimens. Absent empirical data that youth at large are better protected by the abolition of the use of juvenile informants, legislatures looking to implement these suggestions or otherwise restrict the practice should be careful to balance proposed legislation with the needs of law enforcement. 

Arizona Law Review, 2023. 26p.

By Steven James Lee and  Daniel Augusto

  In the latter half of 2020, Los Angeles was dubbed by the media and academicians as the latest epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States. Using time-series analysis on Los Angeles Police Department crime data from 2017 through 2020, this paper tests the economic theory of crime, routine activities theory, social isolation theory, and structural vulnerability theory to determine whether they accurately predicted specifc crime rate movements in the wake of COVID-19 in the city of Los Angeles. Economic theory of crime was supported by the data, and social isolation theory and structural vulnerability theory were partially supported. Routine activities theory was not supported. Implications for policymakers and academics are also discussed.  

Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 2022. 21p.

 By David Yerger, Brandon Vick, Robert Orth, and Charles Gartside, 

The project’s primary goal was to investigate whether shocks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic either triggered or heightened human suffering in two crimerelated areas: murder and abuse. A secondary goal was to identify rural-urban differences in these outcomes both before and during the pandemic. An analysis of homicides and protection from abuse orders over time provided valuable insights regarding crime trends and rural-urban differences, but it did not suggest large, long-term effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the state. The statewide homicide rate rose 21 percent from 2019 to 2020, but the increase was specific to a certain group and location: Black, male victims in Philadelphia County, murdered with a firearm, with most of these incidents being homicides, with no known relationship between the victim and offender (Philadelphia County’s murder rate increased 36 percent in 2020). In rural counties, the 2020 murder rate rose 24 percent, and in non-Philadelphia urban counties, there was a 3 percent increase. It should be noted that these upward trends came after homicides steadily rose from 2014 to 2018, before falling significantly in 2019, and then rising in 2020. The exploratory analysis on county-levels of COVID case and death rates found no statistical evidence that high COVID-rate counties were more likely to experience high levels of protection from abuse orders or homicides. However, the analysis found that counties with higher unemployment rates and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation also experienced higher murder rates and protection from abuse order prevalence in 2020 (a relationship that holds when tested across other years). 

Harrisburg, PA: Center for Rural Pennsylvania, 2022.  42p.

By David Bruce

The South African per-capita murder rate has steadily escalated since 2011/12, when it was at its lowest since 1994. The 2022/23 rate of 45 per 100 000 is the highest in 20 years. But focusing on national murder trends is misleading as trends vary greatly across the nine provinces. The current high per-capita murder rate is driven by high rates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng. Key findings: South African murder trends vary considerably across provinces. The Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng have the highest per-capita murder rates. In 2022/23, the Eastern Cape had the highest murder rate (71 per 100 000), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, both with annual murder rates of 56. The four provinces with the most murders have also recorded the highest per-capita murder rate increases in the last 10 years. Since 2011/12, rates have increased most dramatically in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. The increase has been greatest from 2017/18 to 2022/23. The per-capita murder rate in the Western Cape decreased over the last five years. Recommendations The government and society must prioritise reducing murder rates, which are high and increasing. The collection of data about murder, and the analysis thereof, must be improved. ‘One-size-fits-all’ approaches to addressing murder are unlikely to be effective. Responses should be adapted to respond to the drivers of murder focusing on high-murder localities. Priority should be given to understanding and addressing murder in the four provinces with the highest per-capita murder rates. KwaZulu-Natal and, to a lesser degree, Gauteng experienced major surges in murder in 2021/22, with increases continuing in 2022/23. These have taken them well above their rates in the year before the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown. Deaths during the July 2021 unrest were not a major contributor to the increases in murder in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021/22. Many experts believe that the entrenchment and growth of organised crime has played a major role in the increasing number of murders. More in-depth provincially focused research and analysis is required to better understand the factors and circumstances driving murder trends. 

Pretoria, South Africa: Institute for Security Studies, 2023. 12p.

By Nafees Hamid and Cristina Ariza

Question: Are those radicalised offline or online more of a threat? Which group is harder to detect, more successful in completing attacks, and more lethal when they do so? Is the pattern different for youth versus older perpetrators and for men versus women? This report investigates these questions. Database: We created a database containing 439 perpetrators involved in 245 attacks between 1 January 2014 and 1 January 2021. It includes every publicly known completed attack and an extensive sampling of thwarted attacks. Attacks were all jihadist‑linked in eight Western countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Type of radicalisation: In our database, radicalisation primarily happens offline; over half the individuals in our database had been radicalised via offline networks. Success and lethality: Individuals who were radicalised offline were three times more likely than individuals radicalised online to complete an attack successfully. Those radicalised offline are 18 times more lethal than individuals in the online category. Those radicalised online are almost eight times more likely to fail than to succeed. Group attacks: Individuals who were radicalised offline are almost three times more likely to attack or plot in groups than individuals radicalised online. Success of group attacks: While groups were more likely to be thwarted by the police than to succeed (regardless of how individuals had been radicalised), successful groups of people radicalised offline were more lethal than their lone actor counterparts (15%). Family and friends: Some 87% of those with radicalised friends and 74% with radicalised relatives plotted or attacked together. Foreign fighters: Foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), who were mostly radicalised offline, have the same success rate as non‑FTFs. But success rate increases if they have spent more than a year in a terrorist training location. Age: Online radicalisation is on the rise for young people (born from the 2000s onwards), although most individuals, including young people, are still radicalised offline. Gender: Women appear to be more likely to have been radicalised online. Bottom line: Those radicalised offline are greater in number, more successful in completing attacks and more deadly than those radicalised online.  

London: International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation, King’s College London. 2022. 40p.

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By Kenneth D. Tunnell

The major issues explored through this study were the motivation to commit property crimes, alternatives to crime commission, neutralization of fears during criminal decision making, and decision making processes. During the analysis of the data, five basic themes emerged. Offenders typically decided to commit crimes by using one or more neutralization techniques, most frequently alcohol or drugs, that aided them in the decision making and in the actual crime commission. Persistent criminals did not give any thought to the potentially negative consequences of their actions. The decision making types explicated in this study characterize individuals who are problematic for society, the judicial system, and the other people whose lives they disrupt. The study found that offenders typically specialized in one type of crime for a period of time, then moved on to another specialty area. Finally, the results indicated that these offenders committed a disproportionate number of crimes because they lacked other alternatives. The author maintains that these findings dispute the generally accepted view of the effectiveness of deterrence and instead point to needed policy changes in the areas of wealth redistribution, educational reform, and structural changes in the criminal justice system.

Nelson-Hall Publishers / Chicago, 1992, 191p

By Gena K. Dufour, Charlene Y. Senn, and Nicole K. Jeffrey

Accurate measurement of sexual violence (SV) victimization is important for informing research, policy, and service provision. Measures such as the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES) that use behaviorally specific language and a specified reference period (e.g., since age 14, over the past 12 months) are considered best practice and have substantially improved SV estimates given that so few incidents are reported to police. However, to date, we know little about whether estimates are affected by respondents’ reporting of incidents that occurred outside of the specified reference period (i.e., reference period errors). The current study explored the extent, nature, and impact on incidence estimates of reference period errors in two large, diverse samples of post-secondary students. Secondary analysis was conducted of data gathered using a follow-up date question after the Sexual Experiences Survey–Short Form Victimization. Between 8% and 68% of rape and attempted rape victims made reference period errors, with the highest proportion of errors occurring in the survey with the shortest reference period (1 month). These errors caused minor to moderate changes in time period-specific incidence estimates (i.e., excluding respondents with errors reduced estimates by up to 7%). Although including a date question does not guarantee that all time period-related errors will be identified, it can improve the accuracy of SV estimates, which is crucial for informing policy and prevention. Researchers measuring SV within specific reference periods should consider collecting dates of reported incidents as best practice.

Ontario, Canada: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 26p.

By Jeff R. Temple, Elizabeth Baumler,and Christie Shumate; et al.

Decades of inquiry on intimate partner violence show consistent results: violence is woefully common and psychologically and economically costly. Policy to prevent and effectively intervene upon such violence hinges upon comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon at a population level. The current study prospectively estimates the cumulative incidence of sexual and physical dating violence (DV) victimization/perpetration over a 12-year timeframe (2010–2021) using diverse participants assessed annually from age 15 to 26. Data are from Waves 1–13 of an ongoing longitudinal study. Since 2010 (except for 2018 and 2019), participants were assessed on past-year physical and sexual DV victimization and perpetration. Participants (n= 1,042; 56% female; Mage baseline = 15) were originally recruited from seven public high schools in southeast Texas. The sample consisted of Black/African American (30%), White (31%), Hispanic (31%), and Mixed/Other (8%) participants. Across 12 years of data collection, 27.3% experienced sexual DV victimization and 46.1% had experienced physical DV victimization by age 26. Further, 14.8% had perpetrated at least one act of sexual DV and 39.0% had perpetrated at least one act of physical DV against a partner by this age. A 12-year cumulative assessment of physical and sexual DV rendered prevalence estimates of both victimization and perpetration that exceeded commonly and consistently reported rates in the field, especially on studies that relied on lifetime or one-time specified retrospective reporting periods. These data suggest community youth are at continued and sustained risk for DV onset across the transition into emerging adulthood, necessitating early adolescent prevention and intervention efforts that endure through late adolescence, emerging adulthood, and beyond. From a research perspective, our findings point to the need for assessing DV on a repeated basis over multiple timepoints to better gauge the full extent of this continued public health crisis.

Galveston, TX: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2024. 21p.

By Solveig K. B. Vatnar, Christine Friestad, and Stål Bjørkly

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is an extreme outcome of intimate partner violence (IPV). It is a societal challenge that needs to be investigated over time to see whether changes occur concerning the incidence of IPH, IPH characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and contact with service providers. This study includes the total Norwegian cohort of IPHs between 1990 and 2019 with a final conviction (N = 224). Poisson regression was applied to model the incidence rate of homicide and IPH between 1990 and 2020 as well as the incidence rates of immigrant perpetrators and victims. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between characteristics and period 1990–2012 compared to after 2012 as dependent variable. The results show that though homicide incidence rates in Norway declined steadily and significantly after 1990, IPH rates did not begin to decline until 2015. The following IPH characteristics showed reduced incidence after 2012: IPH-suicide, perpetrators with a criminal record, and IPHs perpetrated subsequent to preventive interventions towards the perpetrator. Sentence length in IPH cases had increased. Changes were not observed for any of the other IPH characteristics investigated. IPH is often the culmination of long-term violence and can be prevented, even if risk assessment is challenging due to the low base rates.

Oslo, Norway: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 27p

By Felix Soldner, Bennett Kleinberg, Shane D. Johnson

The popularity of online shopping is steadily increasing. At the same time, fake product reviews are published widely and have the potential to affect consumer purchasing behavior. In response, previous work has developed automated methods utilizing natural language processing approaches to detect fake product reviews. However, studies vary considerably in how well they succeed in detecting deceptive reviews, and the reasons for such differences are unclear. A contributing factor may be the multitude of strategies used to collect data, introducing potential confounds which affect detection performance. Two possible confounds are data-origin (i.e., the dataset is composed of more than one source) and product ownership (i.e., reviews written by individuals who own or do not own the reviewed product). In the present study, we investigate the effect of both confounds for fake review detection. Using an experimental design, we manipulate data-origin, product ownership, review polarity, and veracity. Supervised learning analysis suggests that review veracity (60.26–69.87%) is somewhat detectable but reviews additionally confounded with product-ownership (66.19–74.17%), or with data-origin (84.44–86.94%) are easier to classify. Review veracity is most easily classified if confounded with product-ownership and data-origin combined (87.78–88.12%). These findings are moderated by review polarity. Overall, our findings suggest that detection accuracy may have been overestimated in previous studies, provide possible explanations as to why, and indicate how future studies might be designed to provide less biased estimates of detection accuracy. 

PLoS ONE 17(12): 2022

By Michael J. Frith  , Kate J. Bowers  , Shane D. Johnson 

Introduction: In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries. Methods: In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data. Results: As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase. Conclusions: From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends 

Journal of Criminal Justice, v. 82, 2022