By James Black, Mattias Eken, Jacob Parakilas, Stuart Dee, Conlan Ellis, Kiran Suman-Chauhan, Ryan J. Bain, Harper Fine, Maria Chiara Aquilino, Melusine Lebret, et al.

Artificial intelligence (AI) holds the potential to usher in transformative changes across all aspects of society, economy and policy, including in the realm of defence and security. The United Kingdom (UK) aspires to be a leading player in the rollout of AI for civil and commercial applications, and in the responsible development of defence AI. This necessitates a clear and nuanced understanding of the emerging risks and opportunities associated with the military use of AI, as well as how the UK can best work with others to mitigate or exploit these risks and opportunities.

In March 2024, the Defence AI & Autonomy Unit (DAU) of the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD), and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) jointly commissioned a short scoping study from RAND Europe. The goal was to provide an initial exploration of ways in which military use of AI might generate risks and opportunities at the strategic level – conscious that much of the research to date has focused on the tactical level or on non-military topics (e.g. AI safety). Follow-on work will then explore these issues in more detail to inform the UK strategy for international engagement on these issues.

This technical report aims to set a baseline of understanding of strategic risks and opportunities emerging from military use of AI. The summary report focuses on high-level findings for decision makers.

Key Findings

One of the most important findings of this study is deep uncertainty around AI impacts; an initial prioritisation is possible, but this should be iterated as evidence improves.

The RAND team identified priority issues demanding urgent action. Whether these manifest as risks or opportunities will depend on how quickly and effectively states adapt to intensifying competition over and through AI.

RAND - Sep 6, 2024

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

BY SAMUEL STOUFFER, LOUIS GUTTMAN, EDWARD SUCHMAN, PAUL LAZARSFELD, SHIRLEY STAR, and JOHN CLAUSEN

"The American Soldier Vol. 4: Measurement and Prediction" delves into the intricate world of military assessment and forecasting, offering readers a comprehensive look at the tools and techniques used to evaluate soldier performance and anticipate future outcomes. This volume provides valuable insights into the evolving landscape of warfare, where data-driven decisions play a crucial role in shaping strategies and outcomes. From advanced measurement technologies to predictive analytics, this book equips readers with the knowledge needed to understand and navigate the complexities of modern military operations. A must-read for anyone interested in the intersection of technology, strategy, and warfare."

PRINCETON, NJ. PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS. 1950. 772p.

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

BY SAMUEL A. STOUFFER ,ARTHU R A. LUMSDAINE, MARION HARPER LUMSDAINE ,ROBIN M. WILLI AMS, Jr., M. BREWSTER SMITH, IRVING L. JANIS, SHIRL EY A. STAR , AND LEONARD S. COTTRELL , Jr.

"The American Soldier Vol. 2: Combat and Its Aftermath" delves into the harrowing experiences of American soldiers on the battlefield and the lasting impact of war on their lives. Through gripping narratives and reflective insights, this volume explores the challenges faced by soldiers during combat, as well as the physical, emotional, and psychological toll that continues long after the guns fall silent. With a blend of firsthand accounts and historical context, this book offers a poignant and unvarnished look at the reality of war and its profound effects on those who serve. "The American Soldier Vol. 2" is a compelling tribute to the courage, sacrifice, and resilience of the men and women who bear the burdens of conflict in defense of their country.

PRINCETON, NJ. PRINCETON UNIVERSTY PRESS. 1949. 664p.

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

BY CARL I. HOVLAND, ARTHUR A. LUMSDAINE, AND FRED D. SHEFFIELD

In the third installment of the thrilling 'American Soldier' series, readers are plunged into a world where cutting-edge technology intersects with the moral complexities of warfare. In this gripping narrative, the protagonist grapples with the consequences of mass communication experiments conducted in the name of military advancement.

As the boundaries between ethics and progress blur, a riveting tale unfolds, exploring the power dynamics at play in the age of information warfare. Through a masterful blend of action and introspection, 'American Soldier Vol. 3: Experiments on Mass Communication' challenges readers to confront the fine line between innovation and exploitation in the pursuit of military supremacy.

With its pulse-pounding storyline and thought-provoking themes, this latest installment captivates audiences and cements the 'American Soldier' series as a must-read for fans of military fiction and techno-thrillers alike.

PRINCETON, NJ. PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS. 1949. 360p.

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

By BY SAMUEL A. STOUFFER, EDWARD A. SUCHMAN, LELAND C. DEVINNEY, SHIRLEY A. STAR .ROBIN M. WILLIAMS, JR.

In this gripping volume, "The American Soldier: Vol.1 - Adjustment During Army Life", readers are taken on a poignant journey through the eyes of soldiers as they navigate the challenges and triumphs of military life. Through vivid storytelling and raw authenticity, this book offers a unique glimpse into the experiences of those who serve their country. From the highs of camaraderie to the lows of homesickness, this collection of stories captures the resilience and adaptability of the American soldier. Whether you have a personal connection to the military or simply seek to understand the sacrifices made by these brave individuals, this book is sure to resonate with readers from all walks of life.

PRINCETON. NEW JERSEY. PRINCETON, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS. 1949. 614p.

United States. Department Of Defense. Office Of The Secretary Of Defense;

From the document: "The DoD annual report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China [PRC] charts the current course of the PRC's national, economic, and military strategy, and offers insight on the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) strategy, current capabilities and activities, as well as its future modernization goals. In 2022, the PRC turned to the PLA as an increasingly capable instrument of statecraft. Throughout the year, the PLA adopted more coercive actions in the Indo-Pacific region, while accelerating its development of capabilities and concepts to strengthen the PRC's ability to 'fight and win wars' against a 'strong enemy,' counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict along the PRC's periphery, and to project power globally. At the same time, the PRC largely denied, cancelled, and ignored recurring bilateral defense engagements, as well as DoD requests for military-to-military communication at multiple levels. This report illustrates the importance of meeting the pacing challenge presented by the PRC's increasingly capable military. [...] 'This report covers security and military developments involving the PRC until the end of 2022.'"

United States. Department Of Defense . 2023. 212p.

By Carlos Solar

While the effects of militarism and militarization toward security are evident in the Americas, most notably transmitted via images of soldiers complementing and replacing law enforcement agencies at times of social crisis, this report seeks potential answers to what this means in theory and practice. The author does this in two ways. First, it unpacks an up-to-date understanding of militarism and militarization aiming to feed academic and policy debates with a perspective on what citizens in Latin America and the Caribbean think. Second, it expands knowledge of militarism and militarization informing security and defense planners, specifically those preparing tailored policies toward conflict and peace in the region.

Miami: Florida International University, 2021. 27p.

By Todd C. Helmus, Hannah Jane Byrne, King Mallory

To support the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)'s efforts to counter extremism in its ranks, the authors considered how a terrorism prevention or countering violent extremism framework might address the issue. They offer intervention initiatives that DoD might consider adopting. They also review the terrorism prevention framework as it has been applied in the U.S. civilian sector and focus on initiatives that might be relevant and adaptable to the military context.

This review highlights broader evidence for such initiatives, places the initiatives in the context of the radicalization process and in the context of other such initiatives, and offers at least a cursory review of the evidence base for interventions.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021. 20p.