By Philip J. Cook, and Jens Ludwig

The evidence base for the study of guns and violence begins with data on such fundamental issues as the number and distribution of guns, the number of people shot each year in criminal assaults, and the frequency of gun use in self-defense. It seems that these simple descriptive statistics should be readily available, and in fact the rhetoric of the debate over gun control in the United States routinely includes reference to 300 million guns, or 100,000 people who are shot each year, or 2.5 million defensive gun uses. But it turns out that such statistics should be viewed with considerable skepticism. Developing reliable estimates of basic facts in this arena is surprisingly difficult, even with the best of intentions. Even surveys that meet the highest standards of current practice may produce heavily biased estimates. The results discussed here should encourage skepticism and engender what might be called “plausibility tests” – common-sense comparisons of the resulting estimates with other sources of information. Too often the review of scientific contributions is like appellate review of a criminal conviction – the court focuses on just the process rather than the outcome. For policy-relevant work it is important to test the conclusions against what else we know about the reality of the situation.

San Diego: Small Arms Data Observatory, 2014. 14p.

By Topher L. McDougal, Daniel Montolio and Jurgen Brauer

This study represents an attempt to understand the U.S. firearms market – the largest in the world – in economic terms. A model of the underlying interplay of legal firearms supply and demand is a prerequisite for reliably evaluating the effectiveness of pertinent existing state and federal firearms policies, and to amend them as necessary. The stakes are high: compared to other nation-states, per capita firearms-related harm in the United States (including suicides and homicides) is exceptionally high and, within constitutional strictures, state and federal firearms policymakers increasingly view it as a major and pressing society-wide problem. Virtually all firearms in the U.S. are initially manufactured and sold legally. Solving a simultaneous equation model using the instrumental variable of natural disasters and employing a unique dataset of U.S. firearms prices and quantities, this paper models – we believe for the first time in the literature – the U.S. market supply of, and demand for, firearms. Encouragingly, we find that this market operates as any other would be expected to, with the notable exception that lagged nonmilitary firearms stocks generate new market demand in a positive feedback loop. We test as predictors of market performance federal firearms legislation as instances of policy, as well as of extraterritorial armed conflict, firearms industry concentration, crime, and technology gaps between U.S. and imported firearms. Except for the time-limited Federal Assault Weapons Ban (1994-2004), we find (restrictive) firearms legislation not to influence sales. We also find that acute external violent conflict and certain levels of violent crime, including homicides and mass shootings, drive up unit sales, and that higher industry concentrations in certain submarkets boost quantity supplied, suggesting economies of scale. Taken together, this study’s findings may provide some empirical support for firearms stock reduction programs to reduce the total volumes of civilian arms.

San Diego: Small Arms Data Observatory, 2020. 35p

By Topher L. McDougal, Athena Kolbe, Robert Muggah and Nicholas Marsh

The rapid increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor in the destabilization of many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in the intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally transferred from one state to another, while in others weapons are diverted from existing stores. In this article the authors consider the leakage from military and civilian markets as an important source of ammunition available to civilians in Haiti. We employ a unique section-quarterly panel of ammunition prices over the period July 2004-July 2012. This data is combined with publicly available monthly data on authorized ammunition shipments to the country registered by the United Nations (UN) and Haitian National Police (HNP). We also consider annual data on homicide rates and UN resolutions related to Haitian military personnel and civilian police. We use a standard time-series OLS model to show that the exogenous shocks of UN- and HNP-ordered ammunition exert measurable downward pressure on civilian ammunition markets, which we calculate in terms of adjusted predictions and partial elasticities of demand. These effects constitute solid econometric evidence that the firewall that should in theory separate military and civilian markets in Haiti has partially broken down. We conclude with a suggestion for using this model to help estimate the specific size of the leakage

San Diego: Small Arms Data Observatory, 2014. 21p.

By Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig

The proposition that widespread gun ownership serves as a deterrent to residential burglary is widely touted by advocates, but the evidence is weak, consisting of anecdotes, interviews with burglars, casual comparisons with other countries, and the like. A more systematic exploration requires data on local rates of gun ownership and of residential burglary, and such data have only recently become available. In this paper we exploit a new well-validated proxy for local gun-ownership prevalence -- the proportion of suicides that involve firearms -- together with newly available geo-coded data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, to produce the first systematic estimates of the net effects of gun prevalence on residential burglary patterns. The importance of such empirical work stems in part from the fact that theoretical considerations do not provide much guidance in predicting the net effects of widespread gun ownership. Guns in the home may pose a threat to burglars, but also serve as an inducement, since guns are particularly valuable loot. Other things equal, a gun-rich community provides more lucrative burglary opportunities than one where guns are more sparse. The new empirical results reported here provide no support for a net deterrent effect from widespread gun ownership. Rather, our analysis concludes that residential burglary rates tend to increase with community gun prevalence.

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002. 98p.

This guide addresses serious youth gun violence, describing the problem and reviewing factors that increase the risks of it. It then identifies a series of questions that might help you analyze your local problem. Finally, it reviews responses to the problem, and what is known about them from evaluative research and police practice. Criminal misuse of guns kills or injures tens of thousands of Americans every year. In 2000, more than 10,000 Americans were killed with guns, and guns are much more likely to be used in homicides of teens and young adults than in homicides of people of other ages.

Read more at the Center for Problem Oriented Policing

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

The assassination of a South African police detective investigating a guns-to-gangs syndicate has brought into sharp focus the links between corrupt elements of the police and the criminal underworld, and the fraudulent channels through which police-issue firearms are sold to criminals.

It has also reinforced how systemic corruption at the firearms registry has been an ongoing problem that has subverted the aims of South Africa’s Firearms Control Act – legislation designed to prevent the dissemination of firearms in the country, and which, ironically, is implemented by the registry.

This paper examines how the entity responsible for controlling civilian access to firearms became so embroiled in corruption that criminal syndicates have been able to infiltrate the registry and acquire firearm licences.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2020. 22p.

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

Southern Africa is awash with illegal firearms fuelling violence, conflict, and organized crime. Guns and ammunition are a currency in an underworld of gangs, hitmen, drug syndicates, extortion, kidnappings, wildlife crime, and bloody turf wars in the informal transport sector.

While the exact figure for the number of illicit firearms in circulation in the SADC region is not readily available, it is estimated that there are about 3.8 million unregistered illegal firearms in circulation in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Many of these come from civilian gun owners whose firearms have been lost or stolen, but many others come from state institutions. It is not known exactly how many firearms have been lost and stolen from the police, military, and other government departments, and a lack of oversight means that many losses and thefts go unrecorded….While the South African Police do release some information on firearms lost or stolen each year, they do not release or do not have, figures on firearms missing from police evidence stocks and of firearms earmarked for destruction.

This report is based on extensive research and fieldwork conducted in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The report examines the sources, markets, and types of firearms inflaming conflict and organized crime in the region.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2021. 81p.

By Guillermo Vázquez del Mercado

The illicit firearms trade is a threat to sustainable development, peace and security. Its proliferation not only escalates conflict but also facilitates other criminal activities. Exploring the links between firearms trafficking and other forms of organized crime requires analysis of how guns enter illicit markets; how they enable other criminal markets to flourish; what actions are taken by governments to control their flow within and across borders; and the role firearms play in exacerbating crime and violence in communities across the world. If this is to be tackled, monitoring and deterring the trade in illegal firearms should be a top priority for governments. Key points ■ Illicit firearms are an accelerant of crime and violence, and a threat to community resilience and democracy. ■ Conflict fuels the arms trade, compounding regional instability. ■ State and private institutions play a significant role in access to illegal firearms. ■ The line between licit and illicit firearms markets is becoming blurred. ■ Greater access to firearms and ammunition is shaping how organized crime networks operate. ■ Modified and home-manufactured firearms are a growing threat. ■ Reliable records and licencing processes/databases are needed for tracing and enforcing international treaties and domestic laws.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2022. 26p.

By Amanda Gore ̵,Lindsey Kennedy, Nathan Southern, and Daan van Uhm.

The Asia Pacific region is the largest and fastest-growing market for gambling in the world. The proliferation of physical and online casinos in South East Asia presents criminal entities with a myriad of opportunities to engage in illicit activities. Whereas casinos generate revenues and employment prospects, their location within weak jurisdictions and special economic zones (SEZs) makes them incredibly permissive settings in which criminal individuals and organizations can operate freely and even run the casino operations. … There are four key reasons behind the convergence between international wildlife trafficking networks and casinos. First is their location in borderlands, which makes them favourable for criminal groups smuggling goods where there are concentrations of tourists. Second is their location in SEZs, which are characterized by weak oversight and lack of external monitoring. Third is the tourist-driven demand for wildlife products.2 Casinos in the region are primarily geared towards Mainland Chinese customers who are forbidden by law to gamble in China and actively seek opportunities to do so in countries within South East Asia, where they also seek wildlife products. Fourth are the personal connections between some prominent casino operators in the region and illegal timber and wildlife markets, both local and international.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2022. 40p.

By Audrey Alexander

The self-proclaimed Islamic State and other jihadist actors have identified several unique roles for Western women in their radicalization and recruitment efforts. This report finds that, while few conduct violent plots, many disseminate propaganda, donate resources, or travel abroad to offer their support. A recent surge in relevant legal cases suggest that the rate of American female involvement in jihadist movements is on the rise. This report uses a wealth of primary and secondary data to examine the efforts of 25 jihadi women in America from January 2011 to September 2016. The cases offer a tremendous diversity of demographic data, suggesting that an overarching profile of the American female jihadist is indiscernible. …. These findings contribute towards the development of policies to respond to this threat, which must be met with a varied response. Moreover, the diverse backgrounds of these cases render monolithic approaches ineffective. Though legal redress is the primary means to mitigate the threat, complementary strategies that offer alternatives to arrest, explore de-radicalization, and emphasize prevention are necessary steps to counter violent extremism by women.

Washington, DC: George Washington University, Program on Extremism, 2016. 32p.

By Lorenzo Vidino, Francesco Marone and Eva Entenmann

Over the last three years Europe and North America have been hit by an unprecedented wave of terrorist attacks perpetrated by individuals motivated by jihadist ideology. The roots of this development are largely to be found in two, deeply intertwined phenomena: the military successes achieved by the Islamic State and its declaration of a Caliphate along with the large number of followers the group has managed to attract in the West. This report identified 51 successful attacks throughout Europe and North America from June 2014, when the Caliphate was declared, until June 2017. From coordinated operations causing large numbers of casualties like the November 2015 Paris attacks, to the many acts of violence carried out by lone attackers, the attacks vary significantly in terms of sophistication, lethality, targets and connectivity to the Islamic State and other groups. Similarly, the profile of the 65 identified involved in the 51 attacks is extremely heterogeneous from both demographic and operational perspectives.

Milano, Italy: Ledizioni LediPublishing, 2017. 108p.

By Leila Nadya Sadat and Madaline M. George

Our research revealed a startling and incontrovertible fact: gun violence in the United States has reached crisis proportions. In 2017, the most recent year for which hard data is available, 173,500 people were shot, over 39,700 of which died: 60.0% from suicide, 36.6% from homicide, 1.4% from legal intervention, and 1.2% from unintentional (accidental) deaths.2 On average in 2017, nearly 109 people died from guns and another 366 suffered nonfatal firearm injuries every day. … The proliferation of firearms is also of concern. While the percentage of the population owning guns has decreased, the number of civilian firearms in circulation in the United States has grown. Indeed, by some estimates, 2009 marked the first year that the number of civilian guns in the United States surpassed the total U.S. population. …Studies clearly demonstrate the serious psychological impact and negative developmental effects of school shootings on students and others across the country, far beyond the school and district immediately affected...

St. Louis, MO: Whitney R. Harris World Law Institute, Washington University in St. Louis, School of Law, 2019. 121p.

By Brian J. Siebel and Elizabeth S. Haile

… virtually every gun used in crime started out in the legal market, sold by a gun dealer licensed by the Federal government. The underground market for guns is largely a product of the diversion of massive numbers of guns from licensed gun shops into the hands of criminals. Studies of this diversion show, for example, that almost 60 percent of the guns traced to crime by ATF originated with only about one percent of the nation’s gun dealers. ATF has concluded that corrupt gun dealers are the source of the largest number of firearms diverted to the illegal market. Moreover, random inspections by ATF of licensed gun dealers nationwide have found that a large percentage have violated Federal firearms laws, and the problem appears to be getting worse.

Washington, DC: The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, 2006. 38p.

By The Brady Campaign and Brady Center To Prevent Gun Violence

This report explains what “bad apple” gun dealers are, how they contribute to gun violence in America, and how they can be stopped. It provides information about the extent of the problem, including that there are roughly 3,000 “bad apple” gun dealers in the country (Section II). It makes clear that factors like sales volume and bad luck are not accurate or sufficient explanations for why such a small percentage of gun dealers supply so many of the guns used in crime. Using examples, the report identifies three major pathways of guns from “bad apple” gun dealers to dangerous and high risk people…The report provides accounts of some of the top crime gun sellers in the country, who have collectively supplied thousands of guns used in crime over the years. In particular, it highlights three dealers and their disproportionate contribution to crime in three cities: Chuck’s Gun Shop and Pistol Range and Chicago; Don’s Guns and Galleries and Indianapolis; and Arrowhead Pawnshop and New York (Section IV).

Washington, DC: The Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence, 2015. 44p.

By Jillian Carr

Gunshot detection systems are used by policing agencies across the U.S. to detect incidents of firearms discharge. The most commonly used gunshot detection system is ShotSpotter, currently deployed in more than 100 cities across the U.S.1 Such systems typically use sensors, placed strategically throughout a particular area, to pinpoint the location of gunfire. Agencies that adopt the technology hope that it can help them reduce gun violence and make communities safer. They report that the technology can alert officers to gunshots that otherwise would not be reported, and that it can reduce officer response times by directing them to a more precise location. But the technology can be quite expensive—costing several hundred thousand dollars or more per year to maintain.

We found that in areas of St. Louis County that used ShotSpotter technology, police were alerted to four times as many gunshot incidents during the study period than in comparable areas without the technology. Despite responding to more calls related to gunfire, we found that reported assaults, which include gun-related assaults, fell by roughly 30 percent in areas with ShotSpotter. Moreover, the technology did not produce changes in the number or pattern of arrests. Because we did not find racially disparate effects on the prevalence of crime reporting or arrests from the adoption of the technology, ShotSpotter’s social costs appear minimal.

New York: Policing Project at New York University School of Law, 2021. 18p.

By Charles M. Katz, Michaela Flippin, Jessica Huff and William King

In 2017, the Phoenix (AZ) Police Department was awarded BJA funding for establishing the Phoenix Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC). The CGIC was a collaborative partnership of law enforcement agencies and experts including the Department's Crime Gun Intelligence Unit (CGIU), the Police Crime Laboratory, the Maricopa County Attorney's Office, the ATF's Phoenix Field Division, and Arizona State University’s Center for Violence Prevention and Community Safety. .. Overall, we found the CGIC's processes, as determined by its written policies and procedures, to have been consistently carried out as planned, and their impacts for the most part to be as expected or trending in a positive direction.

Phoenix, AZ: Center for Violence Prevention & Community Safety, Arizona State University. 2021. 68p.

By Kenneth J. Novak and William R. King

This report presents the findings and methodology of an evaluation of the implementation and impact of the Kansas City Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC) for the years 2017 and 2020, a multi-agency approach for collecting, managing, analyzing, and using information or intelligence derived from or associated with firearms. The CGIC business model involves collaborative partnerships among local agencies in addressing gun-related crime. CGIC activities include the comprehensive collection of ballistic evidence, timely entry and correlation, crime-gun tracing, ATF analysis, identification of NIBIN leads, collaboration between local and federal law enforcement agencies, and prosecution of offenders who commit gun crimes.

Washington, DC: National Gun Crime Intelligence Center Initiative Bureau of Justice Assistance, U.S. Department of Justice 2020. 100p.

By Craig Uchida, Marc L. Swatt, Allison Q. Land, Kyle Anderson and Samantha Hock

Denver’s CGIC was conceived as a program that would “focus on gun violence” -- emphasizing shooters and those who commit gun-related crimes (J. Russell, personal communication October 2020). Using data- and forensic-driven approaches, an interagency collaboration was developed between ATF and DPD. Relying on research on gun violence and crime lab forensics, ATF and DPD leveraged the ATF’s National Integrated Ballistics Information Network (NIBIN) to identify critical links between gun casings, gun-related incidents, and those using firearms. NIBIN information and eTrace were used to link ballistics evidence recovered from firearms and casings to other shooting incidents. They showed the ability to identify heretofore unknown perpetrators and generate forensic evidence leading to the arrest and convictions of gun-crime offenders.

Los Angeles: Justice & Security Strategies, Inc., 2020. 102p.

By Jillian Peterson

This is the Final Report on the goals and achievements of a project that created a database on patterns in the lives of mass shooters to assist in informing policymakers and practitioners in developing and implementing prevention and intervention strategies for mass shootings. Informed by existing datasets, the research literature, and frequently asked questions about mass shooters, this project compiled a list of variables to be coded and developed a codebook. The codebook was piloted on a small random sample of test cases and refined. Open-source lists of mass shootings were developed from major news outlets. Among the variable categories are leakage of the killers’ plans, crisis signs, victim characteristics, firearms possession and use, role of psychosis in the shooting, behaviors related to violence, mental health, family characteristics, and social and interest groups. The report also contains findings from the database on mass shooting trends; shooter demographics; trauma, suicidality, and crisis; mental health; and warning signs

St. Paul, MN: Hamline University, 2021. 38p.

By The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation

In 2014, the FBI published its first report, A Study of Active Shooter Incidents Between 2000-2013, and subsequently published annual and bi-annual reports reflecting its continued research into active shooter incidents based on the FBI’s definition of an active shooter. Through its initial research, the FBI identified and reported on 305 active shooter incidents occurring in the United States between 2000-2019. It was later determined there were potentially other active shooter incidents fitting the FBI’s active shooter definition that had not previously been identified. …. As a result, the FBI evaluated and identified an additional 28 active shooter incidents that occurred between 2000 and 2019, bringing the total designated active shooter incidents during this time period to 333. … This valuable information is intended to assist law enforcement and the public in developing strategies to stop active shooter threats, prevent acts of violence, and prepare for, respond to, and recover from such incidents.

Washington, DC: FBI, 2021. 35p.