The Darkest Shade of Green: Climate Change, Terrorist Organizations, and the Battle for Environmental Legitimacy

By Ashton Kingdon

Based on the combination of online observation, content analysis, as well as comparative and statistical analysis, this paper discusses the scale and structure of al-Qaeda’s and Islamic State’s propaganda output on the surface web. It explores qualitative and quantitative trends detectable in their propaganda between July and December 2023. This paper shows that during this period, the Islamic State released almost twice as many propaganda items on the surface web compared to al-Qaeda. Collected data indicates that the IS’s media production capability improved compared to its online crisis experienced around 2018. The recovery is, however, limited and caused primarily by efforts of the pro-IS media operatives, who are engaged in mass translation and reproduction of official releases of this violent extremist organization (VEO). Among al-Qaeda branches active on the surface web in the second half of 2023, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahidin and media offices that support al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent demonstrated the most remarkable capabilities in strategic communication. This paper also proves that both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State manifested significant interest in the events taking place in Africa, Central Asia, and Palestine. However, they frequently adopted opposing ways of framing them.

Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 2025.