By Ernesto Lopez, Robert Boxerman and Keley CundiffEErnes

Since shortly after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Council on Criminal Justice has tracked changing rates of violent and property crime in large cities across the United States. The pandemic, as well as the social justice protests during the summer of 2020 and other factors, have altered the motives, means, and opportunities to commit crimes.

Prepared for the Council on Criminal Justice’s Crime Trends Working Group, this report focuses on trends in shoplifting, a subset of retail theft which, in turn, is a subset of overall larceny-theft. The FBI defines larceny-theft as the unlawful taking of property without force, violence, or fraud.

The report looks at shoplifting patterns from before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through mid-year 2023. To date, attempts to measure changes in retail theft, including organized retail theft, have relied on retail industry data5 or have been limited to one state.

The city-specific data included in this report are drawn from open-data sources from 24 cities that, over the past five years, have consistently reported specific shoplifting data. Additional data come from the U.S. Justice Department’s National Incident-Based Reporting Program (NIBRS).7 The NIBRS data include a sample of 3,812 local law enforcement agencies. The analyses examine the changing frequency of reported shoplifting, trends in other property offenses, changes in the value of stolen goods, offenses that co-occur with shoplifting, and the number of people involved in each incident.

This report does not discuss in detail shoplifting data from the National Retail Federation’s Retail Security Survey.8 The 2021 survey (data ending in 2020) was the last year the survey reported figures on the number of incidents and the value of stolen goods. Because of this change, data from the survey could not be included.

Due to a lack of available data, this report does not examine factors that could be influencing the trends. Potential factors include changes in retailers’ anti-theft measures and changes in how retailers report shoplifting to law enforcement, which could be based on their perceptions of the extent to which local police or prosecutors will apprehend suspects and pursue criminal charges. Because these data rely on reported incidents, they almost certainly undercount total shoplifting. The findings presented here should be viewed with these considerations in mind.

Washington, DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2023. 8p.

By Michael Townsley & Benjamin Hutchins Griffith Criminology Institute

This Study is the second overview produced by the Profit Protection Future Forum into the ANZ retail crime landscape.

The 2022 Australia and New Zealand Retail Crime Study is the second overview produced by the Profit Protection Future Forum into the ANZ retail crime landscape.

The first study (published in 2019) provided needed regionally relevant intelligence into hot products, popular offending methods, and sector-level estimates of loss types.

This second study not only continues this focus and considers changes during the intervening period. As everyone is aware, the last four years have witnessed considerable and unpredictable changes. COVID-19 disruptions, staff shortages, strained supply chains, and greater online transaction volumes have all shaped the opportunity surface for the commission of criminal activity, be it organised retail crime groups or impulsive amateurs.

Profit Protection (AUS) and Washington, DC: National Retail Federation, 2023. 35p.

By The National Retail Federation

Retail crime, violence and theft continue to impact the retail industry at unprecedented levels. The effects of these criminal acts are not isolated to large national brands or large metropolitan cities. Daily media reports show that no business is immune, and these issues touch retailers of all segments, sizes and locations across the United States. The National Retail Federation’s National Retail Security Survey, now in its 32nd year, surveys loss prevention (LP) and asset protection (AP) professionals throughout the retail industry to capture data about risks, threats and vulnerabilities from the previous fiscal year, as well their forward-looking priorities. The study also asks about retailers’ loss prevention and asset protection programs. For the second year in a row, the study was conducted in partnership with the Loss Prevention Research Council. Shrink or shrinkage is the measurement of losses calculated by a retailer during a specific period of time, categorized across various means of retail loss. This year’s study found that the average shrink rate in FY 2022 increased to 1.6%, up from 1.4% in FY 2021 and in line with shrink rates seen in 2020 and 2019. When taken as a percentage of total retail sales in 2022, that shrink represents $112.1 billion in losses, up from $93.9 billion in 2021. While retail shrink encompasses many types of loss, it is primarily driven by theft, including organized retail crime (ORC). Theft – both internal and external – accounts for nearly two-thirds (65%) of retailers’ shrink. However, for some sectors, theft can represent more than 70% of overall shrink. While theft has an undeniable impact on retailer margins and profitability, retailers are highly concerned about the heightened levels of violence and threat of violence associated with theft and crime. Retailers’ top priority remains providing a safe workplace for associates and a safe shopping experience for customers. Eighty-eight percent of retailers report that shoplifters (overall) are somewhat more or much more aggressive and violent compared with one year ago. And those that specifically track the number of violent shoplifting incidents reported that they saw their number of shoplifting events involving violence increase by over one-third (35%) on average.  ORC, which is one of many types of retail theft, is another area where retailers are seeing higher levels of violence. Last year, 81% of respondents reported that ORC offenders had grown more violent. Compounding that this year, more than two-thirds (67%) of respondents said that they were seeing even more violence and aggression from ORC perpetrators compared with a year ago. Of course, not all crime occurs in person; retailers also reported increases in areas such as ecommerce fraud or phone scams to solicit gift cards or cash. While less common, sizeable minorities reported increases in delivery fraud; stolen goods being sold on third-party sites; return fraud; and loyalty fraud and abuse. As a result of this increasingly alarming crime landscape, retailers continue to make investments in personnel, budgets, technology and other resources to prevent theft and fraud. They also are partnering with law enforcement at federal, state and local levels. Despite these ongoing efforts, many retailers have been forced to take more drastic action, including reducing operating hours in some locations (45%), reducing/altering the availability of products in stores (30%), or even closing some locations (28%). In 2022, NRF successfully advocated Congress to pass the bipartisan INFORM Consumers Act as part of the omnibus spending package, which was signed into law in January 2023. Now in effect, the measure will help bring transparency to online marketplaces by requiring them to verify the identities of high-volume third-party sellers. Doing so will help curb the fencing of stolen merchandise and address the sale of counterfeit goods. Market transparency alone will not stop ORC, which is why NRF strongly supports the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act (H.R. 895/S. 140). The bipartisan legislation has been introduced in both the House and Senate and continues to gain co-sponsors. In addition to efforts in Congress, NRF has worked closely with federal agencies, state lawmakers, local law enforcement and news media across the country to draw attention to ORC. The effort has been successful, with at least 34 states passing ORC laws, as NRF continues to urge additional states to update the definition of ORC and adopt sufficient criminal penalties. 

Washington, DC: National Retail Federation, 2023. 24p