By Min Xie, Preeti Chauhan, Michael Rempel, and Jeremy Travis

This study relies on data from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and presents trends from 1996 to 2022 in crime victimization, rates at which victims report crimes to the police, confidence in the police, and victims’ use of services in New York City. This is one of two studies falling under the umbrella of the Crossroads Project. Its goal is to trace New York City’s trends in crime victimization, enforcement, incarceration, and racial disparities from the 1990s to the early 2020s in the hopes that empirical data over a long timeframe might provide a much-needed perspective capable of informing future policy. Both of the two resulting reports and a joint executive summary may be found at the project landing page. How was the NCVS used in the present study? Although the NCVS is typically used to assess victimization patterns for the nation as a whole, the data can be used to study New York City victimization trends. This is because the New York City’s population base is greater than 5 million and there are fewer concerns regarding identification of victims within the data and unstable estimates (too small of a population may provide volatile estimates). A small body of research has used the NCVS data for local crime analysis including for Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas, and Houston (Rezey & Lauritsen, 2023; Xie, Ortiz Solis, & Chauhan, 2024). Other research has examined New York City data (Langan & Durose, 2009; Xie, Ortiz Solis, & Chauhan, 2024) but the analyses was more limited in the scope and did not extend to 2022. Our study examines the NCVS data in New York City from 1996 to 2022 by nonfatal violence and property crimes. We also assess whether these crimes were reported to the police and, if not, what proportion were not reported because the victims believed the police would not help (a proxy for public confidence in the police). Next, we examine what proportion of victims of violence used victim services, regardless of whether the crime was reported to the police or not. Lastly, we compare New York City to the nation as a whole and to other cities with a population over one million. The analyses are also conducted by race/ethnicity with the caution that the sample size may be too small for reliable estimates. This is the first study to unpack New York City victimization data in this way. Table 1 presents the average number of interviews conducted in New York City annually from 1996 to 2022, compared to the number of interviews for the United States and other cities with populations exceeding one million. The sample size decreases when the data is disaggregated by race/ethnicity, which is a limitation of the NCVS as smaller sample sizes result in larger standard errors of estimates, reducing the results’ precision. To further assist with this issue, a data point in this report for a specific year is a three-year moving average. Three-year moving averages produce more reliable estimates because the annual count of violent incidents in a single city tends to be small. The three-year average violence rate in 1997 is the average violence rate from 1996 to 1998, and so on.

New York: Data Collaborative for Justice, at John Jay College, 2025. 18p.

By Police Executive Research Forum

Jurisdictions across the United States have struggled with a dramatic rise in carjackings since 2020, leaving police leaders with questions about why this spike is occurring, why juveniles are committing this crime in unprecedented numbers, and why carjacking numbers remained elevated when the number of homicides and aggravated assaults started to decline. With those questions in mind, the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) assembled a group of over 130 people from more than 50 different agencies for a National Summit on Carjacking in early 2024 in Washington, D.C. Throughout the day, police leaders, federal officials, local and federal prosecutors, researchers, executives, and business and community leaders discussed the situation in 7. D.C. Metropolitan Police Department. MPD Carjacking Dashboard. https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/carjacking. their communities and the challenges they have faced effectively addressing these incidents, particularly when juveniles are involved. Jurisdictions that have successfully brought their numbers down shared lessons learned and promising strategies for preventing carjackings. This report is drawn from the comments and observations of those who attended PERF’s summit and follow-up interviews. It looks at the carjacking problem in cities and counties across the country, offers insights into the factors causing the increase, and shares some of the innovative approaches jurisdictions are implementing — including the use of technology, data analysis, and cross-agency partnerships. The report includes 10 recommendations to help police and other stakeholders effectively respond to carjackings in their communities.

Washington, DC: Police Executive Research Forum, 2024. 62p.

By Randi Hjalmarsson, Stephen Machin, Paolo Pinotti

The economics of crime has emerged as a critical field over the past 30 years, with economists increasingly exploring the causes and consequences of criminal behavior. This paper surveys key contributions and developments from labor economists, who investigate the (often two-way) intersection of crime with labor market factors, such as education, wages, and unemployment. The paper underscores the importance of understanding criminal decision-making in economic analysis through the lens of opportunity costs and labor market conditions. Methodological advancements, particularly those addressing causation, have propelled the field forward, enabling more accurate conclusions to be drawn for policy recommendations. The paper also explores the role of social policies and international contexts, emphasizing the need for evidence-based reforms to effectively reduce crime. This comprehensive review underscores the transformative impact of economics on crime research and its potential to influence real-world policies.

IZA DP No. 17423 Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics , 2024. 66p.

By Paul Pazen, Thomas Young, DJ Summers and Cooper Pollard

Colorado’s crime rate is not back to its pre-pandemic level. Both local and state authorities are currently attempting to find policy solutions.

Some localities have created policies and procedures that go beyond state guidelines in an effort to control crime. The City of Aurora implemented mandatory minimum sentencing guidelines for auto theft in 2022, for example, the year that Colorado’s and Aurora’s auto theft rates were highest. This policy led to a decrease in the auto theft rate in the city beyond what was seen statewide. In 2023, state lawmakers tried to address auto theft with passage of SB23-097. This bill did not implement mandatory minimum sentences, but instead made it a felony to commit auto theft regardless of the value of the vehicle. The law went into effect on July 1, 2023.

Using Aurora’s experience as a guide, CSI attempted to assess what the economic savings would be if the state were to experience the same decrease in auto theft, shoplifting, and overall crime that Aurora did after implementing its ordinance.

Key Findings

The share of auto theft in Aurora was 19% in July 2022. Since the passage of Aurora’s ordinance, known as “Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Motor Vehicle Theft,” the share averaged 16% from August 2022 through December 2024, representing a three percentage point decrease from the pre-August 2022 period.

A market model predicting auto theft in Aurora suggests there were 723 fewer auto thefts in Aurora from August 2022 to December 2024, a 6% decline relative to other large cities in the state.

For automobile crime, a 6% decline equates to $16.3 million in economic savings for Aurora from August 2022 through December 2024. For the largest city in the state, Denver, the economic savings would be $37.3 million over the same 29 months.

In contrast to Aurora’s experience, initial model results on the state impact from its 2023 effort was less pronounced at a 3% reduction in auto theft.

If Aurora’s experience is indicative of the potential savings of a similar statewide approach to crime, a 6% decline in crime statewide for all reported criminal offenses would have equated to $1.8 billion in economic savings in 2024, or roughly $774 per Colorado household.

Changes in local crime are not uniform across the state, however. The change in crime over the past five years varies widely by city and county.

Greenwood Village, CO : Common Sense Institute, 2025, 18p

By Christopher Louras

A series of interviews with criminal justice stakeholders conducted by Crime Research Group (CRG) in 2020 concluded that policymakers at both the state and local levels rely on access to accurate data to fully understand the scope of criminal incidents that occur within Vermont generally and within communities specifically. Without timely and accurate information, those policymakers recognize the inherent challenge in developing both short- and long-term effective strategies to address the needs of the constituencies they serve. To that end, this report analyzes five years of National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data for incident trends related to law enforcement agencies’ recording day(s) of the week and time of day for criminal events. While this study by no means provides a comprehensive summary of how law enforcement agencies spend their time in response to calls for service, it provides a glimpse into one critical component, when crimes occur and/or are recorded within Vermont’s data systems, that is needed to effectively and efficiently serve the public. 

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2021. 11p.

By Ernesto Lopez, Bobby Boxerman

Key Takeaways This study updates and supplements previous U.S. crime trends reports by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) with data through December 2024. It examines yearly and monthly rates of reported crime for 13 violent, property, and drug offenses in 40 American cities that have consistently reported monthly data over the past six years. The 40 cities are not necessarily representative of all jurisdictions in the United States. Not all cities published data for each offense (see the Appendix for which cities reported which offenses); trends in offenses with fewer reporting cities should be viewed with caution. Not all crimes are reported to law enforcement. In addition, the data collected for this report are subject to revision by local jurisdictions. Reported levels of 12 of the 13 offenses covered in this report were lower in 2024 than in 2023; shoplifting was the only offense higher in 2024 compared to 2023. Looking at changes in violent offenses from 2023 to 2024, the number of homicides in the 29 study cities providing data for that crime was 16% lower, representing 631 fewer homicides. There were 4% fewer reported aggravated assaults, 15% fewer gun assaults, 6% fewer sexual assaults, and 4% fewer domestic violence incidents last year than in 2023. Robbery fell by 10% while carjackings (a type of robbery) decreased by 32%. Motor vehicle theft had been on the rise from the summer of 2020 through 2023, but that trend reversed last year; there were 24% fewer motor vehicle thefts in 2024 than in 2023. Reports of residential burglaries (-13%), nonresidential burglaries (-6%), larcenies (-5%), and drug offenses (-3%) all decreased in 2024 compared to 2023. But rates of reported shoplifting, a crime that has received extensive attention from the media and policymakers, increased by 14% over the same period. Examining trends over a longer timeframe, most violent crimes are at or below levels seen in 2019, the year prior to the onset of the COVID pandemic and racial justice protests of 2020. There were 6% fewer homicides in the study cities in 2024 than in 2019. Similarly, sexual assault (-26%), domestic violence (-11%), and robbery (-19%) were lower in 2024 than in 2019. In contrast, aggravated assaults (+4%), gun assaults (+5%), and carjackings (+25%) were higher in 2024 than in 2019. Homicide rates in some high-homicide cities, including Baltimore, Detroit, and St. Louis, have dropped even further, returning to the levels of 2014, when national homicide rates were at historic lows. Rates in other cities have largely returned to pre-pandemic levels. Property crime trends have been mixed over the last five years. There were fewer residential burglaries (-38%) and larcenies (-12%) in 2024 than in 2019, but more nonresidential burglaries (+12%) and shoplifting (+1%). Motor vehicle thefts were higher by half (+53%) during the timeframe. Drug offenses in 2024 were 28% below 2019 levels. While these crime reductions are promising, the United States still experiences high levels of homicide compared to other industrialized nations, and progress should not slow local, state, federal, and community efforts to adopt comprehensive, evidencebased strategies to reduce violence. Furthermore, researchers should redouble their efforts to identify how broad behavioral shifts and other societal dynamics may affect trends.

Washington, DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2025. 39p.

By Konrad Buczkowski and Paulina Wiktorska

This book presents a synthesis of selected trends in the dynamics and structure of crime in Poland over the past 30 years, in the context of ongoing social transformations in the wider region. The book explores the impact of the deep systemic transformation of the late 1980s and early 1990s on the phenomenon of crime, its structure and dynamics, and the policy of its control in the following decades. It also examines the impact of changes resulting from the dynamic development of Polish society in the 21st century in the context of global changes towards the emergence of a new form of collective life, a mobile information society based on modern technologies. The focus is primarily on those deviant behaviours that can most obviously be linked to social changes, primarily political, economic, legal, and technological. The work examines disclosed crime figures available in official statistics. It also looks to the future considering the global societal changes caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on preliminary observations made in selected countries, the authors describe associated changes in criminal behaviour and identify some pivotal developments that may influence future trends. The book will be of interest to academics and researchers working in the areas of criminal law, criminology, sociology and criminal policy.

London; New York; Routledge, 2024. 122p.

Edited by Marcelo F. Aebi · Fernando Miró-Llinares · Stefano Caneppele

This open access book critically revisits 30 years of debate surrounding the evolution of crime trends, aiming to reconcile various hypotheses and controversies. It scrutinizes the concept of the "crime drop," highlighting the methodological pitfalls in understanding the causation mechanisms behind this phenomenon. By examining the impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on daily routines and crime, the book challenges traditional notions of crime reduction. Drawing on extensive examples, data from official and non-official statistics, and crime surveys, this book illustrates how cyberspace has fundamentally reshaped the nature of crime. Despite this transformation, integrating cybercrime into conventional crime statistics remains an unaccomplished task. The book offers a thorough methodological discussion on measuring cybercrime, addressing the challenges researchers face in quantifying and explaining crimes committed both in cyberspace and across physical and digital boundaries. This book speaks to students, academics, researchers, and practitioners in the fields of criminology, criminal justice, and cybercrime. It is an invaluable resource for anyone seeking to understand the complexities of modern crime trends and the challenges posed by the digital age.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2025, 141 p.

By Karolina Kamra Kregert

The main purpose of the Swedish Crime Survey (SCS) is to study trends in self-reported exposure to crime, fear of crime, confidence in the criminal justice system and crime victims' contact with the criminal justice system in the Swedish population (16-84 years). The survey also aims to describe differences among population groups, such as differences between men and women or among different age groups. This chapter presents a selection of the indicators included in the report, to summarise the results and provide an overall picture of trends and patterns. Note that, in the context of the SCS, exposure to crime refers to events that occurred during the previous calendar year, meaning that SCS 2024 refers to exposure to crime in 2023. Fear of crime refer to perceptions over the past year, while unsafety and confidence in the criminal justice system refer to perceptions at the time the questionnaire was answered. Trends Exposure to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft have decreased, while fraud has increased There is a decreasing trend in the proportion of the population who state that they have been exposed to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft. Exposure to sexual offences has significantly decreased in this year's survey (3.8 % in 2023, compared to 4.7 % in 2022), and after a sharp increase in the period 2012-2017, has begun decreasing instead. The proportion of respondents having been exposed to threats has also decreased (7.4% in 2023, compared to 7.7% in 2022), with an evident decreasing trend since 2020. Before that, there was an increase between 2014 and 2019. Furthermore, the proportion of households exposed to bicycle theft has decreased for the fourth consecutive year. Both sales fraud and card and credit fraud have increased in this year's survey. For sales fraud, an increasing trend has been observed since the first measuring point (2016), with a significant increase in this year's survey (from 6.1%, in 2022, to 6.9%, in 2023). Card and credit fraud have increased in the last two years, having previously decreased in 2020 and 2021. In terms of exposure to robbery, there was a decreasing trend as of 2020, but in this year's survey the proportion is the same as the previous year. For assault, pickpocketing, online harassment, harassment, burglary and car theft, the proportion has remained stable over the last three to four years.

English summary of Brå report 2024:8

Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 30p.

By Lina Fjelkegård and Emma Patel

The number of residential burglaries has decreased sharply in recent years – between 2017 and 2023, they were basically halved. However, many people still become victims of burglary. In 2023, 10,000 residential burglaries were reported to the police, and only 4 per cent were solved. Those affected may experience the burglary as a violation of privacy, and feel unsafe at home. For these reasons, Brå initiated this study on residential burglaries. The purpose is to provide an overall picture of the nature of residential burglaries, but also to examine the development of this crime over time, and how the police handle residential burglaries. Different methods and materials were used for this. We start from a number of preliminary investigations into residential burglaries, which Brå has coded and analysed. We have also used reporting statistics, data from police records, and interviews with police employees. International networks have probably had an impact Between 2007 and 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries in Sweden increased significantly. Brå has investigated possible explanations, and one piece of the puzzle seems to be increased activity from international crime networks from Eastern Europe. This may, in turn, be due to more open borders to the East and increased unemployment after the financial crisis in 2008. After 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries decreased – and around that time, border protection in Sweden was also enhanced. Meanwhile, the number of suitable objects for theft in dwellings seems to have decreased. The pandemic, which meant that people worked from home more, may also have contributed to a decrease in residential burglaries. However, Brå's review is only cursory, and several factors may have influenced the development of residential burglaries. Differences between single-family houses and flats Metropolitan municipalities generally have the highest number of reported burglaries per dwelling. Sparsely populated municipalities have the lowest number. The differences between the metropolitan municipalities and others mainly concern burglaries of single-family homes – flat burglaries are more evenly distributed across the country. There are also differences between single-family homes and flats in how the burglaries are committed. Single-family home burglaries are most often done by someone breaking open a window or a back door, while flats are more often breached through the entrance door. Flat burglaries are also more often committed with a low degree of finesse than single-family home burglaries. Most residential burglaries are committed during the day and the victim is rarely at home. The things stolen are often small and valuable. Two-thirds acted professionally To describe suspects of residential burglaries, Brå made a distinction between amateur and professional perpetrators. In one-third of the preliminary investigations, the perpetrators were classified as clear amateurs. They more frequently burglarised flats, and they relatively often had an addiction or mental illness. The female suspects most often fell into this group. The more professional perpetrators are more difficult to identify – they are less often caught and there is therefore less information about them in Brå's material. However, there is one group that can be described as clearly professional, and this is probably where you’ll find the international crime networks. According to the police, they often use false identities, change registration plates, and clean up traces at the crime scene. There is probably also an intermediate category of perpetrators who are neither amateurs nor among the most expert. The boundaries are also fluid for what is organised crime and what is not. People can, for example, be recruited temporarily by the criminal networks. The police could take more investigative measures According to the police's internal recommendations, the authority should always send out a police patrol in the event of a residential burglary, and then use specially trained staff for the technical investigation. Both of these things are also often done – a patrol was sent out in 73 per cent of burglaries of single-family houses. On average, the police carry out four investigative measures per residential burglary. However, Brå estimates that more measures probably could have been taken in almost half of the preliminary investigations. Often, there is no interrogation of an injured party or a witness. Police Region Stockholm carries out fewer investigative measures than the other police regions. Consistently, the police take more measures in cases of burglaries of single-family houses than in cases of flat burglaries. Today, the police immediately dismiss one-third of reports of residential burglaries, and the proportion has increased over time. It is also reasonable to immediately dismiss crimes that have little chance of being solved. Not everything that is reported is a crime – Brå sees that one-third of the preliminary investigations probably do not include residential burglaries. At the same time, the proportion of solved cases is only four per cent, and Brå estimates that the police can quite often do more. In particular, interrogations of injured parties and witnesses can be carried out more often. The police can improve coordination of investigations and work more on finding stolen goods There are four main ways to catch a perpetrator; in the act, trace evidence, witness identification, and stolen goods. This is according to the reported preliminary investigations. Police catch a suspect in the act in one third of the cases. In 29 per cent of cases, trace evidence is used to catch the suspect, usually DNA. Often, special local crime scene investigators (LCSI) collect traces. They conduct thorough examinations, which can be used to detect serial crime, but which rarely lead to a match in the police database. Therefore, Brå considers it could sometimes be more efficient to let the first police patrol do the crime scene investigation. This is especially true if there is no functioning crime linkage that can make use of traces collected by LCSI. Such coordination is lacking in several police regions – and it benefits organised crime when each case is handled locally. In one in five cases, witness identification is used to catch the perpetrator. More identifications could probably be made if the police interviewed more witnesses than today. There is also potential for improvement in terms of stolen goods. Today, a fifth of the cases are solved by the police identifying stolen goods. However, the goods are often discovered in connection with other matters – there is not much independent monitoring of stolen goods within the police. Brå assesses that there is a need for better IT tools and more active work in finding stolen goods. Report 2024:12 Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 7p.

By Neil Donnelly

To examine 10-year trends in offending by females in New South Wales (NSW) between 2014 and 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for all people proceeded against by the NSW Police Force between 2014 and 2023. The number and proportion of offences committed by female and male offenders are presented. Offending trends are examined across 32 specific offence categories using the average annual percentage change in offences and the Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. This analysis is conducted for the entire population of female and male offenders regardless of age, then repeated for the subset of young offenders. RESULTS Between 2014 and 2023 the number of females proceeded against by NSW police increased by 40%, compared to just 17% for males. The proportion of female offenders grew by around 15%, from 19% of all offenders in 2014 to 22% of all offenders in 2023. Female offenders were most commonly proceeded against for steal from retail store (12%), possess/use drugs (12%), domestic violence (DV) assault (11%), non-DV assault (7%) and breach bail conditions (7%). Much of the overall growth in female offending can be explained by increases in a small number of high-volume offence categories. These include: breach of Apprehended Violence Orders (12% increase in female offences from 2014 to 2023 versus a 7% increase in male offenders); breach bail conditions (12% vs. 8%); DV assault (8% vs. 2%); and non-DV assault (4% vs. 1%). The average annual number of female offenders (compared to males) also increased across several lower volume offences, although these contributed less to the growth in female offending overall. Most predominantly: sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (13% vs. 2.5%); motor vehicle theft (12% vs. 9%); prohibited weapons offences (8% vs. 4%); break and enter non-dwelling (7% vs. stable); and trespass (6% vs. 3%). Trends and offending patterns were similar for young female offenders aged 10-17 years. One difference was the number of young female offenders grew by just 20% between 2014 and 2023 (compared to relatively stable trends for young male offenders). CONCLUSION While there has been a long-term increase in the number of female offenders proceeded against by the NSW Police Force, they continue to represent a small proportion of all offenders. Further analysis utilising representative surveys may provide insight int

Sydney: NSW BUREAU OF CRIME STATISTICS AND RESEARCH - 2024. 14p.

 By David Yerger, Brandon Vick, Robert Orth, and Charles Gartside, 

The project’s primary goal was to investigate whether shocks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic either triggered or heightened human suffering in two crimerelated areas: murder and abuse. A secondary goal was to identify rural-urban differences in these outcomes both before and during the pandemic. An analysis of homicides and protection from abuse orders over time provided valuable insights regarding crime trends and rural-urban differences, but it did not suggest large, long-term effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the state. The statewide homicide rate rose 21 percent from 2019 to 2020, but the increase was specific to a certain group and location: Black, male victims in Philadelphia County, murdered with a firearm, with most of these incidents being homicides, with no known relationship between the victim and offender (Philadelphia County’s murder rate increased 36 percent in 2020). In rural counties, the 2020 murder rate rose 24 percent, and in non-Philadelphia urban counties, there was a 3 percent increase. It should be noted that these upward trends came after homicides steadily rose from 2014 to 2018, before falling significantly in 2019, and then rising in 2020. The exploratory analysis on county-levels of COVID case and death rates found no statistical evidence that high COVID-rate counties were more likely to experience high levels of protection from abuse orders or homicides. However, the analysis found that counties with higher unemployment rates and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation also experienced higher murder rates and protection from abuse order prevalence in 2020 (a relationship that holds when tested across other years). 

Harrisburg, PA: Center for Rural Pennsylvania, 2022.  42p.

By David Bruce

The South African per-capita murder rate has steadily escalated since 2011/12, when it was at its lowest since 1994. The 2022/23 rate of 45 per 100 000 is the highest in 20 years. But focusing on national murder trends is misleading as trends vary greatly across the nine provinces. The current high per-capita murder rate is driven by high rates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng. Key findings: South African murder trends vary considerably across provinces. The Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng have the highest per-capita murder rates. In 2022/23, the Eastern Cape had the highest murder rate (71 per 100 000), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, both with annual murder rates of 56. The four provinces with the most murders have also recorded the highest per-capita murder rate increases in the last 10 years. Since 2011/12, rates have increased most dramatically in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. The increase has been greatest from 2017/18 to 2022/23. The per-capita murder rate in the Western Cape decreased over the last five years. Recommendations The government and society must prioritise reducing murder rates, which are high and increasing. The collection of data about murder, and the analysis thereof, must be improved. ‘One-size-fits-all’ approaches to addressing murder are unlikely to be effective. Responses should be adapted to respond to the drivers of murder focusing on high-murder localities. Priority should be given to understanding and addressing murder in the four provinces with the highest per-capita murder rates. KwaZulu-Natal and, to a lesser degree, Gauteng experienced major surges in murder in 2021/22, with increases continuing in 2022/23. These have taken them well above their rates in the year before the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown. Deaths during the July 2021 unrest were not a major contributor to the increases in murder in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021/22. Many experts believe that the entrenchment and growth of organised crime has played a major role in the increasing number of murders. More in-depth provincially focused research and analysis is required to better understand the factors and circumstances driving murder trends. 

Pretoria, South Africa: Institute for Security Studies, 2023. 12p.

By Ernesto Lopez, Robert Boxerman and Keley CundiffEErnes

Since shortly after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Council on Criminal Justice has tracked changing rates of violent and property crime in large cities across the United States. The pandemic, as well as the social justice protests during the summer of 2020 and other factors, have altered the motives, means, and opportunities to commit crimes.

Prepared for the Council on Criminal Justice’s Crime Trends Working Group, this report focuses on trends in shoplifting, a subset of retail theft which, in turn, is a subset of overall larceny-theft. The FBI defines larceny-theft as the unlawful taking of property without force, violence, or fraud.

The report looks at shoplifting patterns from before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through mid-year 2023. To date, attempts to measure changes in retail theft, including organized retail theft, have relied on retail industry data5 or have been limited to one state.

The city-specific data included in this report are drawn from open-data sources from 24 cities that, over the past five years, have consistently reported specific shoplifting data. Additional data come from the U.S. Justice Department’s National Incident-Based Reporting Program (NIBRS).7 The NIBRS data include a sample of 3,812 local law enforcement agencies. The analyses examine the changing frequency of reported shoplifting, trends in other property offenses, changes in the value of stolen goods, offenses that co-occur with shoplifting, and the number of people involved in each incident.

This report does not discuss in detail shoplifting data from the National Retail Federation’s Retail Security Survey.8 The 2021 survey (data ending in 2020) was the last year the survey reported figures on the number of incidents and the value of stolen goods. Because of this change, data from the survey could not be included.

Due to a lack of available data, this report does not examine factors that could be influencing the trends. Potential factors include changes in retailers’ anti-theft measures and changes in how retailers report shoplifting to law enforcement, which could be based on their perceptions of the extent to which local police or prosecutors will apprehend suspects and pursue criminal charges. Because these data rely on reported incidents, they almost certainly undercount total shoplifting. The findings presented here should be viewed with these considerations in mind.

Washington, DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2023. 8p.

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

Edited by Ted Robert Gurr

VIOLENCE IN AMERICA Vol. 1 explores the intricate tapestry of crime throughout the nation's history, shedding light on the various facets of violence that have shaped American society. From notorious outlaws of the Wild West to the rise of organized crime during Prohibition, this volume delves into the darker chapters of the past, offering a compelling narrative that examines the root causes and consequences of criminal activities. Through meticulous research and insightful analysis, this book provides a comprehensive overview of the history of crime in America, inviting readers to reflect on the enduring legacy of violence in a nation built on conflicting ideals.

Newbury Park. Sage. 1989. 281p.

By Alana Cook

As with many property crimes, incidents of retail theft fell significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since October 2021, however, retail theft offences have been steadily increasing, up 47.5% year-on-year to June 2023. This paper considers the increase in retail theft up to June 2023 focusing on the regions where retail theft is increasing, what items is being stolen and from where, and who appears to be responsible. Findings show: • The sharp increase in retail theft following the removal of pandemic related restrictions has brought retail theft volumes back to equivalence with pre-pandemic figures in both Greater Sydney and Regional NSW. The absence of an increase in theft reports beyond what was reported prior to the pandemic suggests the upward trend reflects a return to pre-pandemic offending levels. The trend does not support emerging external factors, such as the cost-of-living crisis, driving an increase in this offence. • The most frequently reported stolen item in retail theft is liquor, including bourbon, whiskey, and vodka (stolen in 37% of incidents), followed by clothing (22%). Retail theft of personal items, such as perfume and cosmetics, has declined in the past five years (stolen in 13% of incidents). • Locations recording the biggest increase in steal from retail incidents over the past five years are licenced premises and general wholesalers. Department or clothing stores and chemists have reported the largest decreases. • $440 was the average value of items stolen in retail theft incidents in 2022/23. • Almost half of all retail theft offenders are aged 30 to 39 years but after accounting for population, young people aged 14 to 17 years had the highest rate of involvement with NSW Police.

(Bureau Brief No. 168). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 10p.

By Mélanie S.S. Seabrook, Alex Luscombe, Nicole Balian, Aisha Lofters, Flora I. Matheson, Braden G. O’neill, Akwasi Owusu-Bempah, Navindra Persaud, Andrew D. Pinto

This longitudinal study found no consistent correlations between increased police spending and municipal crime rates.

The analysis found that police services are a top budget priority in most municipalities, with up to 26 percent of total expenditures allocated to police. However, the findings revealed net increases in per capita spending are not associated with larger reductions in crime rates.

The authors examined budgets of 20 urban municipalities in Canada: Toronto, Montreal, Peel Region, Calgary, York Region, Edmonton, Ottawa, Winnipeg, Vancouver, Waterloo Region, Surrey, Quebec City, Hamilton, Halifax, Laval, London, Gatineau, Saskatoon, Burnaby, and Longueuil.

The study looked at police funding and how it varies across Canadian municipalities over a long period of time. The data from 2010 to 2020 showed wide differences in spending. For example, Vancouver spent more than double per capita on policing in 2019 than Quebec City, highlighting the complexity of the interactions between crime rates and police funding.

Other studies have also had mixed results regarding the relationship between police funding and crime. A A 2014 found no clear relationship between crime rates and per capita police expenditures in Canadian provinces, and a 2015 studyof 50 Canadian municipalities found that higher spending on police was associated with higher rates of violent crime, but the direction of the relationship was not established.

Research on police funding is limited in Canada, partly due to the lack of publicly available data on police spending. The study calls for improved publishing of police expenditure data, and for future research to examine whether funding decisions may be based on past crime rates and explore whether investments in police impact future crime rates.

Although the authors do not make specific policy recommendations regarding police budgets, the findings raise questions about the reasoning for such vast differences in police funding across the country despite overall downward crime rates.

Canadian Public Policy, Volume 49 Issue 4, December 2023, pp. pp. 383-398

By Bill McCarthy and John Hagan

There is now a sizable literature on connections between homelessness, crime, and criminal legal system contact. We review studies on these relationships, focusing mostly on links between the adversity that often characterizes homelessness—the need for shelter, food, and income—and offending, victimization, and involvement with the criminal legal system. We concentrate on multivariate studies from the United States and Canada and consider research on youth and adults. We begin with a short discussion of some of the challenges of studying these relationships. We follow our review of research on homeless conditions with a summary of research that has used data from homeless samples to advance a broad array of explanations of crime; a collection that includes strain, routine activities and lifestyle exposure, differential association, social control, rational choice, life course, and criminal capital theories.

Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7, Page 257 - 281

By Abigail Weitzman, Mónica Caudillo, and Eldad J. Levy

In this review, we argue that to understand patterns and causes of violence in contemporary Latin America, we must explicitly consider when violence takes on interpersonal qualities. We begin by reviewing prominent definitions and measurements of interpersonal violence. We then detail the proliferation of interlocking sources of regional insecurity, including gender-based violence, gangs, narcotrafficking, vigilantism, and political corruption. Throughout this description, we highlight when and how each source of insecurity can become interpersonal. Next, we outline mutually reinforcing macro and micro conditions underlying interpersonal violence in its many hybrid forms. To conclude, we call for more multifaceted conceptualizations of interpersonal violence that embrace the complexities of Latin American security situations and discuss the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in this area.

Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7, Page 163 - 186

By Philip J. Cook and Ashley Mancik

In 1962, the FBI reported a national homicide clearance rate of 93%. That rate dropped 29 points by 1994. This Great Decline has been studied and accepted as a real phenomenon but remains mysterious, as does the period of relative stability that followed. The decline was shared across regions and all city sizes but differed greatly among categories defined by victim race and weapon type. Gun homicides with Black victims accounted for most of the decline. We review the evidence on several possible explanations for the national decline, including those pertaining to case mix, investigation resources, and citizen cooperation. Our preferred explanation includes an upward trend in the standard for arrest, with strong evidence that although clearance-by-arrest rates declined, the likelihood of conviction and prison sentence actually increased. That result has obvious implications for the history of policing practice and for the validity of the usual clearance rate as a police performance measure.

Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7, Page 59 - 83