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Posts tagged spatial analysis
DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS*

By David Weisburd, Laura A. Wyckoff, Justin Ready, John E. Eck, Joshua C. Hinkle, Frank Gajewski

This study addresses the longstanding concern that focused crime prevention efforts—such as policing "hot spots"—might simply displace crime to nearby areas. While displacement has been a major critique of place-based policing, empirical studies have rarely been designed specifically to assess its presence or measure its impact. The authors designed and implemented a controlled field experiment in Jersey City, New Jersey, to examine whether such displacement occurs or whether crime control efforts might instead lead to a diffusion of benefits—i.e., crime reductions in areas surrounding targeted sites. The study focused on two areas: one known for street-level drug dealing and the other for prostitution. Using over 6,000 social observations, interviews, and ethnographic fieldwork, the researchers found little evidence of spatial displacement and instead documented significant diffusion of crime control benefits to adjacent areas. The findings challenge assumptions that crime merely moves elsewhere and reinforce the effectiveness of concentrated policing in reducing crime beyond targeted hot spots.

(Criminology, Volume 44, Number 3, 2006, pp. 549–594)

Investigating the spatial association between supervised consumption services and homicide rates in Toronto, Canada, 2010–2023: an ecological analysis

By Dan Werb, dwerb@health.u HaeSeung Sung ∙ Yingbo Naa ∙ Indhu Rammohana ∙ Jolene Eeuwesa ∙ Ashly Smoke∙  Akwasi Owusu-Bempah, Thomas Kerr,g, and Mohammad Karamouzian

  Background Supervised consumption services (SCS) are effective at preventing overdose mortality. However, their effect on public safety remains contested. We investigated homicide rates in areas near SCS in Toronto. Methods We classified coroner-reported fatal shootings and stabbings (January 1st, 2010 to September 30th 2023) by geographic zone: within 500 m (‘near’), between 500 m and 3 km (‘far’), and beyond 3 km of an SCS (‘out’). We then used Poisson regression to calculate the rate ratio (RR) across zones 18, 36, 48, and 60 months pre vs. post SCS implementation. Finally, we compared spatial homicide incidence prior to and after the date of the implementation of each SCS using interrupted time series (ITS). Findings Overall, 956 homicides occurred, and 590 (62%) were fatal shootings and stabbings. There was no meaningful change in the rate of fatal shootings and stabbings within 3 kms of SCS (near and far zones) after their implementation. However, between 48 and 60 months pos-implementation, we detected an increase in out zones. In an ITS analysis, we observed a reduction in the monthly incidence in near zones and an increase in out zones. Interpretation SCS implementation was not associated with increased homicide rates; instead, we observed a reduction in monthly incidence near SCS. These results may inform drug market activity responses that optimize community health and safety.

The Lancet Regional Health – Americas, Volume 43, 2025. 101022

Right Place, Right Time? Making Crime Pattern theory Time-Specific

By Sabine E. M. van Sleeuwen, Stijn Ruiter, Wouter Steenbeek

Objectives: Crime pattern theory and the related empirical research have remained rather a-temporal, as if the timing of routine activities and crime plays no role. Building on previous geography of crime research, we extend crime pattern theory and propose that an offender’s spatial knowledge acquired during daily routine activities is not equally applicable to all times of day. Methods: We put this extended theory to a first empirical test by applying a discrete spatial choice model to detailed information from the Netherlands on 71 offences committed by 30 offenders collected through a unique online survey instrument. The offenders reported on their most important activity nodes and offence locations over the past year, as well as the specific times they regularly visited these locations. Results: The results show that almost 40% of the offences are committed within the neighbourhoods of offenders’ activity nodes, increasing to 85% when including first-, second- and third-order neighbourhoods. Though not statistically significant in our small sample, the results further suggest that offenders are more likely to commit crime in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at the same time of day than in neighbourhoods they have regularly visited at different times of day. Conclusion: Our extension of crime pattern theory is only tentatively supported. We argue for replication research with larger samples before any firm conclusions are warranted.

Crime Science volume 10, Article number: 2, 2021, 10p.

Understanding the new geographies of organised crime: Empirical studies into the spatialities of organised criminal phenomena

By Ella Cockbain, Patricio Estévez-Soto, and Felia Allum

Organised crime – and the people, processes and structures involved – do not exist in a geographical vacuum. They have an inherent spatiality: shaped by and shaping the places they occupy in physical, virtual and hybrid spaces. Although the ‘social embeddedness’ of organised crime is relatively well-recognised, its spatiality – or ‘spatial embeddedness’ – has been neglected. This article contextualises and introduces our special issue on the new geographies of organised crime. We put forward a central argument that geographical lenses can advance and enrich understanding of organised crime, briefly review relevant literature and explain some of the foundational concepts in geographical thinking. We discuss the rationale for this special issue and highlight its papers’ main contributions. Since the geographies of the illicit are full of complexities, heterogeneities and subjectivities, we do not propose any singular approach, but rather see a plurality of possibilities for better incorporating geography into organised crime scholarship. Accordingly, the papers are theoretically and methodologically diverse, as well as covering varied topics and locations

Criminology & Criminal Justice, 25(1). 2025, 3-20 pages

THE CRIMINAL EVENT

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

By Vincent F. Sacco and Leslie W. Kennedy

Sacco/Kennedy is a concise, economical text that offers a unifying element to aid student understanding of the material presented. The organizing tool ('the criminal event') presents crime as consisting of many facets, and it shows the relationships between the various facets of crime. With an emphasis on spatial analysis, the authors examine crime from all sides, what motivates people to commit crime, who suffers and how, and how society should respond.

Wadsworth/Thomson Learning, 2002, 180 pages