By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

This paper investigates the role of mass media in shaping racial tolerance and advancing civil rights in the post-WWII United States. We study the first attempt in the history of mass media to use a radio broadcast targeted at children to promote an inclusive American society. In 1946, amid persistent racial divisions, the popular radio series The Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination, and exposing the KKK's bigotry. Using digitized historical data on U.S. radio stations and state-of-the-art radio propagation models, we compute geographic exposure to the broadcasts. Exploiting exogenous exposure to the broadcasts, we employ a cohort study design to analyze individual-level data from 1964 to 1980–a crucial period for civil rights activism and legislation in the United States. We find lasting impacts on those exposed as children, including increased support for civil rights, improved interracial relations, and more progressive political attitudes. These effects translate into greater alignment with the Civil Rights Movement, evidenced by increased support for protests and diminished institutional trust, and further manifested by reduced participation in the Vietnam War. Additionally, county-level panel data illustrate how areas covered by the broadcast in 1946 evolve towards less segregationist attitudes, a lower presence of the KKK, and an increase in civil rights activism and prominence in discourse.

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, 2024.

By Institute for Strategic Dialogue

From mainstream to extreme, from far left to far right, and large platforms to fringe ecosystems, antisemitism on social media is a universal challenge. For many years and across different events, geographies, and languages, ISD has sought to understand, track, and analyze online antisemitism. This document aims to synthesize ISD’s findings, providing a summary of relevant literature as a tool for informing the work of ISD’s Coalition to Counter Online Antisemitism.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 17p.

By The Institute for Strategic Dialogue

In the last year, a loose network of actors from Bordeaux to Toulouse to Paris targeted drag events aimed at all-ages audiences for protest, harassment, and abuse. The behaviors and dynamics observed among these actors echo and mirror those observed in other parts of the world, particularly the US. While anti-drag action in France remains marginal compared to the activity witnessed in the US, UK, and Australia, it nonetheless emerged as a phenomenon from a standing start in 2022. March 2023 saw the nation’s first in-person protest at an all-ages drag event in Paris, and two months later a far-right group protested with banners and a smoke bomb outside of a library hosting a drag queen story hour (DQSH) for children in the small village of Saint-Senoux. A seemingly unlikely group of actors is leading this charge. The French anti-gender movement, which was at the heart of the movement against equal marriage in the early 2010s, has been joined by far-right parties and politicians, extremist groups, COVID-19 skeptics, and assorted conspiracy theorists. All are seeking to cancel drag events through tactics of protest, petitions, harassment, misinformation, and intimidation. This briefing provides an in-depth analysis of five cases of anti-drug mobilization in the period December 2022 – May 2023, using a combination of ethnographic methods and social media data analysis to examine activity related to each case. The first was in Bordeaux, the second in Lamballe-Armor, the third in Toulouse, the fourth in Paris, and the fifth in Saint-Senoux. While the earlier campaigns largely manifested online with limited in-person mobilization, the two most recent events saw increased offline activity. This report aims to summarise the key narratives, tactics, and actors involved in anti-drag action in France, and how these mobilizations are tied to anti-LGBTQ+ activity in France more broadly. However, given the small number of instances of anti-drug activism in France, the conclusions of this report are indicative and tentative.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 24p.

By The  Institute for Strategic Dialogue

The rapidly evolving online extremist landscape in New Zealand means new strategies for intervention are needed. This playbook – developed in consultation with New Zealand’s rich tapestry of civil society, communities, and practitioners engaged in prevention – offers practical frameworks for projects promoting positive online interventions to tackle online extremism. Based on an analysis of the rapidly evolving landscape of online extremism, the playbook takes stock of established and emerging intervention models. It brings together domestic and international best practices and suggests potential avenues for new positive intervention approaches. Finally, it reflects on practical considerations for programming, including monitoring and evaluation, safeguarding, operational security, and ethical considerations. This playbook examines the shift from violent groups to online extremism, highlighting digital literacy, audience communication, and proactive engagement with at-risk individuals.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.

By Clara Martiny, Terra Rolfe, Bilen Zerie, Aoife Gallagher and Helena Schwertheim

ISD sought to understand how Online Gender-Based Violence (OGBV) affects South African women, focusing on the experience of women politicians, candidates, and political figures during one of South Africa’s most historic general elections in May 2024. ISD analysts used a combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, interviews with experts, and knowledge drawn from online and in-person workshops. Specifically, three online case studies looked at abusive content, gendered disinformation, and harassment targeting women politicians on TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook.

ISD’s analysis found that South African women in politics often face abuse online in the form of replies or comments to their posts or content about them. Misogynistic actors tend to target their physical attributes, intelligence, and ability to lead. They also often engage with gendered disinformation narratives that sexualize or objectify women. While the legislative frameworks in South Africa are progressive and comprehensive, enforcement is difficult and many women are unaware of the resources available to them. Social media platforms also have policies that address OGBV and gendered disinformation but their enforcement is weak, especially outside of English language content.

Amman Berlin London Paris Washington D C: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.

By Paul M. Reeping & David Hemenway 

Background: Previous studies have linked weather to crime and aggression but have not considered the causal structure of the variables included in the model(s).

Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from 2012 to 2016 to measure the association between weather and the number of shootings in Chicago. The number of shootings per day was obtained via the Chicago Tribune (2012–2016). Daily high temperature, humidity, wind speed, difference in temperature from historical average, precipitation type, and amount, were extracted via The Weather Underground. Weekends, holidays, and other non-school days were also included as possible effect measure modifiers. Causally adjusted negative binomial regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the exposures of interest and the daily number of shootings.

Results: A 10-degree (°C) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays. A 10-degree higher temperature than average was also associated with a 33.8% higher rate of shootings.

Conclusion: In recent years, shootings in Chicago were more likely to happen on warm days and especially during the weekends or holidays. This finding is in line with studies that have linked crime to higher temperatures and also suggests that shootings may be related to when individuals are outside and more likely to encounter violence. Interventions that keep people inside, such as air-conditioning and summer programs for students, might be effective in reducing the number of shootings in Chicago. We believe using a causal structure is useful for understanding the link between weather and shootings.

Injury Epidemiology volume 7, Article number: 31 (2020) 

By Kaleb Byars

Despite recent Congressional hearings and public attention, the question of how to fairly and efficiently punish recidivist organizational offenders remains unresolved. Any discussion regarding the most optimal legal response to recidivist organizational crime is incomplete without a solution accounting for the use of organizational deferred prosecution agreements ("DPAs") and non-prosecution agreements ("NPAs"). These tools allow criminal defendants to resolve charges without sustaining convictions that attach to the defendants' criminal records, and they are used often in the organizational context. This Article is the first to recognize that the federal sentencing scheme fails to promote deterrence and fairness in the context of organizational sentencing and is the first to offer a practical solution to this problem. The federal sentencing scheme currently does not require an increase in an organizational defendant's sentence when the defendant previously executed DPAs or NPAs before its subsequent criminal conduct. Yet the federal sentencing guidelines do require an increase in an individual defendant's sentence if the individual previously executed a DPA. Meanwhile, the existence of prior DPAs and NPAs is a hallmark of organizational recidivism that demonstrates an organization is more culpable than other organizational defendants. Accordingly, this Article recommends that the Sentencing Commission amend the federal sentencing guidelines to require sentencing courts to increase organizations’ sentences based on prior DPAs and NPAs. This Article offers specific amendments for consideration. Finally, until the sentencing guidelines are amended, sentencing courts can use tools already in place to begin imposing more fair organizational sentences.

Unpublished paper, 2024.Byars, Kaleb, Recidivist Organizational Offenders and the Organizational Sentencing Guidelines (August 12, 2024).

By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024

By Fabian Zhilla

This study asserts that the repatriation of foreign fighters from the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant threat to the peace and stability of Southeast Europe within the realm of organized crime. It contends that Southeast Europe serves as fertile ground for foreign fighters during times of war crises, facilitating their exploitation by organized crime for illicit purposes. Regarding the context of Southeast Europe, the study argues, firstly, that serious organized crime groups demonstrate a propensity to recruit individuals with military experience. Secondly, it underscores the historical roots of foreign fighters presence in the region, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lastly, it highlights the inadequate response and policies at both national and European Union levels to address this concern in the region.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 30–41. 2024.

Edited By Knut Rio, Michelle MacCarthy, Ruy Blanes

This book presents fresh ethnographic work from the regions of Africa and Melanesia—where the popularity of charismatic Christianity can be linked to a revival and transformation of witchcraft. The volume demonstrates how the Holy Spirit has become an adversary to the reconfirmed presence of witches, demons, and sorcerers as manifestations of evil. We learn how this is articulated in spiritual warfare, in crusades, and in healing or witch-killing raids. The contributors highlight what happens to phenomena that people address as locally specific witchcraft or sorcery when re-molded within the universalist Pentecostal demonology, vocabulary, and confrontational methodology.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2017. 311p.

By Kondakov, Alexander Sasha

Violent Affections uncovers techniques of power that work to translate emotions into violence against queer people. Based on an analysis of over 300 criminal cases of anti-queer violence in Russia before and after the introduction of the ‘gay propaganda’ law, the book shows how violent acts are framed in emotional language by perpetrators during their criminal trials. It then utilizes an original methodology of studying ‘legal memes’ and argues that these individual affective states are directly connected to the political violence aimed at queer lives more generally. The main aim of Violent Affections is to explore the social mechanisms and techniques that impact anti-queer violence evidenced in the reviewed cases. Alexander Sasha Kondakov expands upon two sets of interdisciplinary literature – queer theory and affect theory – in order to conceptualize what is referred to as neo-disciplinary power. Taking the empirical observations from Russia as a starting point, he develops an original explanation of how contemporary power relations are changing from those of late modernity as envisioned by Foucault’s Panopticon to neo-disciplinary power relations of a much more fragmented, fluid, and unstructured kind – the Memeticon. The book traces how exactly affections circulate from body to body as a kind of virus and eventually invade the body and respond with violence. This analytic effort draws on the arguments from memetics – the theory of how pieces of information pass on from one body to another as they thrive to survive by continuing to resonate. This work makes the argument truly interdisciplinary.

London: UCL Press, 2022.

Edited by Henrietta Wilson, Olamie Samuel, and Dan Plesch

How did a journalist find out who was responsible for bombing hospitals in Syria from his desk in New York? How can South Sudanese monitors safely track and detail the weapons in their communities and make sure that global audiences take notice? How do researchers in London coordinate worldwide work uncovering global corruption? What are policymakers, lawyers, and intelligence agencies doing to keep up with and make use of these activities? In the age of Google, threats to human security are being tracked in completely new ways. Human rights abuses, political violence, nuclear weapons, corruption, radicalization, and conflict are all being monitored, analyzed, and documented. Although open source investigations are neither easy to conduct nor straightforward to apply, with diligence and effort, societies, agencies, and individuals have the potential to use them to strengthen security. This interdisciplinary book presents 18 original chapters by prize-winning practitioners, experts, and rising stars, detailing what open source investigations are and how they are carried out, and examining the opportunities and challenges they present to global transparency, accountability, and justice. It is essential reading for current and future digital investigators, journalists, and scholars of global governance, international relations, and humanitarian law, as well as anyone interested in the possibilities and dangers of this new field.

Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Europe Ltd, 2024. 

By Asian Racing Federation

The ARF’s latest compendium of 2 major reports and 18 articles collates the Council’s latest research on the threat of illegal betting markets to the integrity of racing and other sports. From February 2023to April 2024, the ARF Council's Bulletins have been shedding light on the ways technological breakthroughs can be exploited by organized crime, all of which are now included in one edition.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2024. 192p.

By Asian Racing Federation

This report examines Mainland China’s crackdown on illegal betting from 2018 to mid-2021, its background, purpose and impact. It is based on official announcements and statistics, 315 Mainland Chinese media articles related to illegal betting, and English-language reports. The report details:

·         Why China is so concerned about illegal betting

·         Insights into the scale of the problem

·         The crackdown’s impact on wider illegal betting in Asia

·         Notable shared characteristics of illegal betting operations

·         Why China’s crackdown is relevant to other jurisdictions

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2021. 14p.

By Erica Gaston and Fiona Mangan

Reconceptualize peace operation tools in ways that would better respond to transnational organized crime, including elevating it as a priority task or considering transnationally operational missions. Position UN entities and missions for more informed political economy-focused responses, including through cultivating staff expertise related to anti-corruption and financial crime, and improving whole-of-mission intelligence capacity. Protect and reinforce transnational monitoring and enforcement tools, including revamping sanctions regimes, protecting and buttressing panels of experts, and supporting civil society or private sector information flows and watchdog activities. Consider issues related to organized crime and trafficking in prevention and peacebuilding, including national prevention strategies, mediation and good offices, and peacebuilding forums and programming  

 New York: United Nations University, Centre for Policy Research, 2024. 15p.  

By Fadzilah Hanum Mohd Mydin, Christopher Mikton, Wan Yuen Choo, Ranita Hisham Shunmugam, Aja Murray, Yongjie Yon, Raudah M. Yunus, Noran N. Hairi, Farizah M. Hairi … 

Background: The examination of psychometric properties in instruments measuring abuse of older people (AOP) is a crucial area of study that has, unfortunately, received relatively little attention. Poor psychometric properties in AOP measurement instruments can significantly contribute to inconsistencies in prevalence estimates, casting a shadow of uncertainty over the magnitude of the problem at national, regional, and global levels.

Objectives: This review rigorously employed the Consensus-based Standards for the Selection of Health Measurement Instruments (COSMIN) guidelines on the quality of outcome measures. It was designed to identify and review the instruments used to measure AOP, assess the instruments' measurement properties, and identify the definitions of AOP and abuse subtypes measured by these instruments, ensuring the reliability and validity of the findings.

Search Methods: A comprehensive search was conducted up to May 2023 across various online databases, including AgeLine via EBSCOhost, ASSIA via ProQuest, CINAHL via EBSCOhost, EMBASE, LILACS, ProQuest Dissertation & Theses Global, PsycINFO via EBSCOhost, PubMed, SciELO, Scopus, Sociological Abstract via ProQuest, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), Google Scholar and WHO Global Index Medicus. Additionally, relevant studies were identified by thoroughly searching the grey literature from resources such as Campbell Collaboration, OpenAIRE, and GRAFT.

Selection Criteria: All quantitative, qualitative (addressing face and content validity), and mixed-method empirical studies published in peer-reviewed journals or grey literature were included in this review. The included studies were primary studies that (1) evaluated one or more psychometric properties, (2) contained information on instrument development, or (3) examined the content validity of the instruments designed to measure AOP in community or institutional settings. The selected studies describe at least one psychometric property: reliability, validity, and responsiveness. Study participants represent the population of interest, including males and females aged 60 or older in community or institutional settings.

Data Collection and Analysis: Two reviewers evaluated the screening of the selected studies' titles, abstracts, and full texts based on the preset selection criteria. Two reviewers assessed the quality of each study using the COSMIN Risk of Bias checklist and the overall quality of evidence for each psychometric property of the instrument against the updated COSMIN criteria of good measurement properties. Disagreements were resolved through consensus discussion or with assistance from a third reviewer. The overall quality of the measurement instrument was graded using a modified GRADE approach. Data extraction was performed using data extraction forms adapted from the COSMIN Guideline for Systematic Reviews of Outcome Measurement Instruments. The extracted data included information on the characteristics of included instruments (name, adaptation, language used, translation, and country of origin), characteristics of the tested population, instrument development, psychometric properties listed in the COSMIN criteria, including details on content validity, structural validity, internal consistency, cross-cultural validity/measurement invariance, reliability, measurement error, criterion validity, hypotheses testing for construct validity, responsiveness, and interoperability. All data were synthesized and summarised qualitatively, and no meta-analysis was performed.

Main Results: We found 15,200 potentially relevant records, of which 382 were screened in full text. A total of 114 studies that met the inclusion criteria were included. Four studies reported on more than one instrument. The primary reasons for excluding studies were their focus on instruments used solely for screening and diagnostic purposes, those conducted in hospital settings, or those without evaluating psychometric properties. Eighty-seven studies reported on 46 original instruments and 29 studies on 22 modified versions of an original instrument. The majority of the studies were conducted in community settings (97 studies) from the perspective of older adults (90 studies) and were conducted in high-income countries (69 studies). Ninety-five studies assessed multiple forms of abuse, ranging from 2 to 13 different subscales; four studies measured overall abuse and neglect among older adults, and 14 studies measured one specific type of abuse. Approximately one-quarter of the included studies reported on the psychometric properties of the most frequently used measurement instruments: HS-EAST (assessed in 11 studies), VASS-12 items (in 9 studies), and CASE (in 9 studies). The instruments with the most evidence available in studies reporting on instrument development and content validity in all domains (relevance, comprehensiveness and comprehensibility) were the DEAQ, OAPAM, *RAAL-31 items, *ICNH (Norwegian) and OAFEM. For other psychometric properties, instruments with the most evidence available in terms of the number of studies were the HS-EAST (11 studies across 5 of 9 psychometric properties), CASE (9 studies across 6 of 9 psychometric properties), VASS-12 items (9 studies across 5 of 9 psychometric properties) and GMS (5 studies across 4 of 9 psychometric properties). Based on the overall rating and quality of evidence, the psychometric properties of the AOP measurement instruments used for prevalence measurement in community and institutional settings were insufficient and of low quality.

Authors' Conclusions: This review aimed to assess the overall rating and quality of evidence for instruments measuring AOP in the community and institutional settings. Our findings revealed various measurement instruments, with ratings and evidence quality predominantly indicating insufficiency and low quality. In summary, the psychometric properties of AOP measurement instruments have not been comprehensively investigated, and existing instruments lack sufficient evidence to support their validity and reliability.

Campbell Systematic Reviews: Volume 20, Issue 3, 2024. 

By Asian Racing Federation

This Handbook highlights the risks to the integrity of horse racing and other sports from illegal betting-related sports corruption and provides practical guidance to administrators and other key stakeholders for mitigating against and combatting such corruption. Practical guidance in the Handbook includes an overview of major issues around illegal betting, how to conduct bet monitoring and betting analysis, intelligence gathering and analysis, how to conduct illegal betting investigations, and how to engage stakeholders to combat illegal betting and related corruption.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2020. 130p.

By Australia. Parliament. Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee

This inquiry was established to investigate the higher-than-population average statistics of missing and murdered First Nations women and children in Australia. The final report of the inquiry is organized by the following chapters.

Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 2 - Current data
Chapter 3 - Causes of and factors driving violence
Chapter 4 - Police culture and practices
Chapter 5 - Acknowledging and responding to the crisis
Chapter 6 - Commonwealth government leadership
Chapter 7 - Conclusions and Recommendations

The report notes from the outset that every year, First Nations women and children are murdered or reported missing throughout Australia. The statistics are alarming and all Australians should rightly be concerned and outraged. It is important to remember that the statistics represent real people—sisters, mothers, aunties, grandmothers, children, grandchildren, siblings, and cousins—who were and continue to be loved. It is time to acknowledge and end the violence.

The report makes 10 recommendations including:

• that federal, state, and territory governments codesign with First Nations families and communities, and on behalf of all Australians, a culturally appropriate and nationally significant way in which to recognize and remember the First Nations women and children who have been murdered or disappeared.

• to review existing police practices in each jurisdiction, consider the learnings from each jurisdiction, and aim to implement and harmonize best police practices across Australia

• that the Australian government empowers First Nations women to lead the design and implementation of services and supports that address violence in their communities reflecting the principles contained in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People.

• and further recommendations relating to: trauma-informed healing, including the recommendations made by the Healing Foundation and White Ribbon Australia; implementation of a violence prevention framework for men and boys; development of Aboriginal community-based support programs for men; and initiatives that promote a sense of individual and community responsibility for the issue of male violence against Aboriginal women.

Canberra: Australian Parliament, 2024.227p.

By Peter Leasure

While some have argued that drug-induced homicide laws were largely meant to target higher-level drug dealers, others have pointed out that most drug-induced homicide prosecutions have involved low-level dealers as well as family and friends of victims. However, no research has formally explored public opinion about whether there should be differing levels of culpability in drug-induced homicide scenarios. This study examined whether perceived culpability levels in a drug-induced homicide situation differed by race and factual scenario. We utilized an experimental information provision survey sent to heads of households in South Carolina. There were two randomized treatments. The first treatment was race (White and African American). Participants were randomly assigned scenarios with two White individuals, two African American individuals, or one White and one African American individual. The second treatment randomly assigned participants to one of two factual scenarios. In the first scenario, participants received a fact pattern where both individuals (trafficker and user/victim) had an existing friendship, and the trafficker was not a traditional drug dealer. In the second scenario, participants received a fact pattern where there was no existing friendship, and the trafficker was a traditional drug dealer. Our results showed large and statistically significant differences between scenarios that involved a friend relationship and a dealer relationship. Specifically, respondents who received the dealer scenarios were far more likely to assign culpability. Additionally, our results did not indicate levels of culpability assignment that were significantly (statistically) higher for African American traffickers when compared to White traffickers. Relevant decision-makers may want to consider policies or formal laws that recognize public opinion favoring lower culpability levels for traffickers in drug-induced homicide scenarios that are not traditional dealers.

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 828 Drug Enforcement and Policy Center, February 2024

By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph F. Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

We document the influence of media narratives in counteracting racial prejudice by exploring the emergence of socially inclusive narratives in post-WWII U.S. media. We exploit an unprecedented experiment that created exogenous exposure to these narratives: in 1946, amid widespread racial divisions, the popular children’s radio series The Adventures of Superman suddenly decided to promote equality by reframing its fictional stories. We find that exposure to these narratives significantly contributed to the advancement of civil rights in subsequent decades. Specifically, we uncover increased support for civil rights and civil rights organizations, deeper racial assimilation, and more progressive political positions.

Unpublished paper