Saving Democracy: Reducing Gang Influence on Political Elections in El Salvador
By Eleno Castro and Randy Kotti
El Salvador is one of the most violent countries in the world, mostly because of gang violence. This paper studies the extent to which gangs affect political elections across El Salvador and hence affect the quality of democracy. Despite the growing body of qualitative evidence suggesting collusion between gangs and political parties in El Salvador, little has been done systematically at the national level. Using police data and voting results, we find that homicides in gang-controlled neighborhoods tend to decrease during electoral seasons along with an increase in electoral participation. These effects are especially significant in the neighborhoods where political parties have a strong voting base. Consistent with the interviews we conducted, this suggests that parties negotiate with gangs to foster electoral participation in the areas where they are more likely to receive electoral support and thus increase their chances of winning. Gangs may also affect elections by forcing political parties to ask permission to get into gang-controlled neighborhoods during campaigns. Also, politicians can agree with gangs to receive gang members’ direct votes and their collaboration to mobilize voters.
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To mitigate the influence of gangs on elections, we recommend organizing staggered municipal elections to increase voters’ security and discourage politicians’ negotiation through citizens’ protection on election day. In addition, we make a series of recommendations to improve the quality of elections and reduce the effects of gangs control: (1) organize electoral campaign days protected by security forces to ensure parties’ equitable access to gang-controlled areas, (2) restrict ex-convicts’ voting rights for violent crimes to reduce the influence of gang members, (3) increase the number of polling stations and let voters register in the station they prefer, and (4) extend electronic voting to people living in El Salvador (not just the diaspora).
Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 2022. 63p.