By Eleno Castro and Randy Kotti

El Salvador is one of the most violent countries in the world, mostly because of gang violence. This paper studies the extent to which gangs affect political elections across El Salvador and hence affect the quality of democracy. Despite the growing body of qualitative evidence suggesting collusion between gangs and political parties in El Salvador, little has been done systematically at the national level. Using police data and voting results, we find that homicides in gang-controlled neighborhoods tend to decrease during electoral seasons along with an increase in electoral participation. These effects are especially significant in the neighborhoods where political parties have a strong voting base. Consistent with the interviews we conducted, this suggests that parties negotiate with gangs to foster electoral participation in the areas where they are more likely to receive electoral support and thus increase their chances of winning. Gangs may also affect elections by forcing political parties to ask permission to get into gang-controlled neighborhoods during campaigns. Also, politicians can agree with gangs to receive gang members’ direct votes and their collaboration to mobilize voters.

Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 2022. 63p.