The Long-Term Effect of Routine Police Activity on Property and Violent Crime in NSW, Australia

By Joanna Wang, Don Weatherburn, Wai-Yin Wan

Aim: To examine the long-term effect of two routine police activities on property and violent crime in NSW.

Method: Police move-on directions and person searches as well as property and violent crimes were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System. We investigate the relationship between police activity and crime using panel of 17 Local Area Commands (LACs) over the period 2001 to 2013. To estimate the long-run relationship, panel models of Pooled Mean Group and Mean Group were applied to allow for differing effects between LACs.

Results: We estimated a significant and strongly negative long-run relationship between both indices of police activity (move-on directions and person searches) and each of break and enter, motor vehicle theft and robbery. The person search activity is negatively related to assault, but the effect is weak; with a 10 per cent increase in person searches only producing a 0.29 per cent fall in assaults. No significant long-run relationship was found between assault and move-on directions.

Conclusion: Sustained increases in police activity, whether in the form of move-on directions or person searches, do appear to help suppress break and enter, motor vehicle theft and robbery but do not appear to help in reducing assault.

(Crime & Justice Bulletin No. 225). Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.  2019. 12p.