The Role of Dynamic Risk and Protective Factors in Predicting Violent Recidivism: Intellectual Ability as a Possible Moderator?

By Karolien Garritsen, Marija Janković, Erik Masthoff, Elien De Caluwé and Stefan Bogaerts

This study investigated which risk and protective factors, based on the 14 clinical indicators of the Historical-Clinical-Future Revised, significantly predicted violent recidivism in a sample of 315 male forensic psychiatric patients. Additionally, it was investigated whether these associations were moderated by intellectual ability. Regarding risk factors, a stronger influence of risky network members, and higher levels of hostility, impulsivity, and addiction significantly predicted violent recidivism. Likewise, regarding protective factors, poorer social and labor skills, and a lower degree of patient’s acceptance of crime responsibility were significant predictors of violent recidivism. Contrary to our expectations, better coping skills and more insight into risky behaviors that can lead to relapse also contributed significantly to an increased likelihood of violent recidivism. Intellectual ability had no significant moderating effect on the associations between the factors and violent recidivism. The results offer an insight into which factors need to be prioritized during treatment.

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology Volume 68, Issue 2-3 Feb 2024 Pages155-295