Hot spots policing as part of a city-wide violent crime reduction strategy: Initial evidence from Dallas

By: Michael R. Smith, Rob Tillyer, Brandon Tregle

A growing body of literature suggests that crime is both concentrated in a small number of geographic units and committed by a small number of people, within American cities. A related body of empirical evidence, dating back almost three decades, suggests that police can effectively combat violent crime in hot spots by focusing resources within them. The current study evaluates the impact of a hot spots policing strategy in Dallas, Texas as part of a comprehensive, city-wide strategic plan to reduce violent crime. Using difference-in-differences techniques, we find consistent evidence that violent crime fell, on average, by 11% in targeted hot spots during the first year of the Dallas Crime Plan with no evidence of spatial crime displacement to adjacent areas. Effects varied somewhat by treatment type. The offender-focused treatment was somewhat more effective than the high visibility treatment alone, but both reduced crime by statistically significant amounts. Arrest analyses likewise revealed differential impacts by treatment type, with significant arrest reductions seen in high visibility treatment areas consistent with deterrence and arrest increases in offender-focused areas consistent with the strategy's focus on violent offenders. The contribution of the targeted hot spots to city-wide violent crime decreased significantly over the course of the year, which provides inferential evidence of the strategy's possible city-wide impact on violent crime. Implications of the study for policy, practice, and future research are discussed.

Journal of Criminal Justice, Volume 90, January–February 2024, 102091