By K. Alexander Adams and Youngsung Kim

This paper uses panel data from 1980 to 2018 in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia to examine the relationship between liberalized concealed carry laws, homicide, and firearm homicide. Multivariate regression analysis was conducted with state and time fixed effects. A general-to-specific procedure was also used to reduce the arbitrariness of choosing control variables in the crime equation. Various robustness checks were also employed, including the use of a generalized synthetic control model. The relationship between shall-issue and constitutional carry laws and homicide were statistically insignificant at the 1%, 5%, and even 10% level. The results were robust to multiple alternative model specifications. We find no evidence that looser concealed carry laws pose a significant public health or criminological risk.

Unpublished paper, 2023.