The Nature, Trends, Correlates, and Prevention of Mass Public Shootings in America, 1976-2018

By James Alan Fox

Recent mass public shootings in venues as diverse as a school, a church, and a concert, have alarmed policymakers and the public alike. The massive amount of media attention given these tragedies has convinced many observers that such incidents are on the rise—that we are experiencing a virtual epidemic of bloodshed. Notwithstanding this widely-held perception, shootings in which four or more victims are killed in a public place unrelated to other criminal activity remain rare events, especially when adjusted for population growth. While there has been some increase in the number of cases, the severity—in terms of the number killed and wounded— has spiked over the past several years, with seven of the ten deadliest occurring since 2007. Because of this, and the associated news and social media obsession, the most pronounced increase has been in fear. Despite mounting interest among journalists and academics, questions regarding the nature and prevention of mass shootings remain. For example, to what extent do mass shooters have histories of mental illness, substance abuse, or violence? Does strengthening or weakening gun control laws have an impact on the incidence or severity of mass public shootings? Are mass shooters influenced by media coverage of these events? To address these questions and more, we embarked on a research initiative starting with the creation of a database of mass public shooting incidents, offenders, and victims that occurred in the United States from 1976 forward. Notwithstanding the date range contained in the project title, we updated the data as the work progressed and used the most up-to-date data for analyses and associated publications as they became available. We defined mass public shootings as any event in which four or more individuals, not including the assailant(s), were killed by gunfire in a public setting within a 24-hour period, absent any associated criminal activity (such as robbery, gang conflict, or illicit drug trade). With this as the starting point, we then carried out a series of analyses using these and other data.

Boston: Northeastern University, 2021. 48p.