A Revalidation Study of Bernalillo County’s Public Safety Assessment

By Alex Severson,  Elise Ferguson

This study evaluates the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) in Bernalillo County, New Mexico, using data from 22,387 felony cases between July 2017 and June 2023. The PSA, which generates scores predicting defendants' likelihood of failure to appear (FTA), new criminal activity (NCA), and new violent criminal activity (NVCA) during pretrial release, demonstrated "fair" to "good" predictive validity with AUC scores ranging from 0.58-0.69, aligning with results from our initial validation study from June 2021. While the PSA showed similar predictive performance across racial groups for FTA and NCA outcomes, the NVCA flag performed poorly for Black defendants, with predictive validity no better than chance. We also found that age-related risk factors embedded in the NCA and NVCA scales had limited predictive value. We documented significant increases in FTA rates during and after COVID-19, likely due to policy changes that increased court appearances through mandatory status hearings. Despite higher base rates of NCA and NVCA for male defendants, the PSA demonstrated similar predictive validity across genders. Analysis of NCA by charge severity revealed that even high-risk defendants rarely committed serious felonies while on pretrial release. Our findings suggest opportunities to optimize the PSA locally by adjusting how age-related factors are weighted and reconsidering the use of the NVCA flag for Black defendants.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR APPLIED RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS , 2024. 48p.