The Future of Biotechnology Crime: A Parallel Delphi Study with Non-Traditional Experts

By Mariam Elgabry , Darren Nesbeth , Shane Johnson 

Background

The way science is practiced is changing and forecasting biotechnology crime trends remains a challenge as future misuses become more sophisticated.

Methods

A parallel Delphi study was conducted to elicit future biotechnology scenarios from two groups of experts. Traditional experts, such as professionals in national security/intelligence, were interviewed. They were asked to forecast emerging crime trends facilitated by biotechnology and what should be done to safeguard against them. Non-traditional experts, such as “biohackers” who experiment with biotechnology in unexpected ways, were also interviewed. The study entailed three rounds to obtain consensus on (i) biotechnology misuse anticipated and (ii) potential prevention strategies expected.

Results

Traditional and non-traditional experts strongly agreed that misuse is anticipated within the cyber-infrastructure of, for example, medical devices and hospitals, through breaches and corporate espionage. Preventative steps that both groups strongly advocated involved increasing public biosecurity literacy, and funding towards addressing biotechnology security. Both groups agreed that the responsibility for mitigation includes government bodies. Non-traditional experts generated more scenarios and had a greater diversity of views.

Discussion

A systematic, anonymous and independent interaction with a diverse panel of experts provided meaningful insights for anticipating emerging trends in biotechnology crime. A multi-sector intervention strategy is proposed. 

Futures Volume 141, August 2022, 102970