By Mia-Maria Magnusson

The well-being of neighbourhoods in terms of socioeconomic conditions constitutes an important element in analyses focused on the explanation of crime trends and public safety. Recent developments in Sweden concerning gun violence and open drug scenes are worrying and the police are under a great deal of pressure to resolve the situation in many neighbourhoods, which is in turn affecting Swedish society as a whole. This study focuses on micro areas in terms of sociodemographic factors and the presence of drug markets and gun violence. The aim is to explore the relationship between these factors and what characterises areas that are experiencing the greatest difficulties. The study develops an index for the prediction of gun violence in micro areas, in this study portrayed by vector grids. The findings show an overlap between gun violence and drug markets and that micro areas in that overlap share harsh sociodemographic conditions. The study produces an index indicating the probability that a grid cell would experience gun violence. The index was then validated using recent gun incidents, and was found to have high accuracy. The resulting grids constitute a suitable target for resource allocation by police and other actors. This could facilitate a more accurate and precise focus for measures to prevent areas from becoming—or to disrupt already existing—hot spots for gun violence.

Eur J Crim Policy Res 31, 151–172 (2025)

By Christopher Blattman

International drug trafficking dominates the conversation on organized crime, but equally common and serious are urban systems of organized crime—criminal groups focused not on exports or transshipment, but on dominating local markets, neighborhoods, and politics. When policymakers do pay attention to this problem, they consistently make the same mistake—believing there are best practices. But systems of organized crime are not all alike. There is no one blueprint or general solution, and so following the latest fad is unlikely to deliver the desired result. Instead of trying to copy the quasi-mythological success of a Giuliani or Bukele, policymakers need to understand what kind of organized crime problem they have, what capabilities their city possesses, and what tools are appropriate to the circumstances. This paper looks in-depth at how organized crime is organized in three cities: Chicago, Medellín, and San Salvador. It also considers New York, Bogotá, and Port-au-Prince. I argue that the primary driver of their organization and incentives is their source of criminal revenues. A second major driver of behavior is the degree of criminal political organization, which broadly-speaking takes three forms: atomized individuals, fragmented groups, and competing confederations. These forms are not just the product of their revenues, but are also the result of decades of competition with the state and one another. What policy tools will work hinges on this diagnosis. I look at the evidence for a range of standard policies—from crackdowns to street outreach—and explain why we can expect them to have wildly different impacts depending on the context

Prepared for 2024 IMF & IDB Conference Crime in Latin America , 2024. 48p.