was prepared by the Research and Trend Analysis Branch, Division for Policy Analysis and Public Affairs under the supervision of Angela Me, Chief, Research and Trend Analysis Branch.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022, the political economy of Ukraine has been profoundly transformed.1 The aggression affected both licit and illicit trade routes, disrupted criminal organizations, and spawned new forms of informal and illicit exchange at the frontline and in the rear of the country. It has also led to the emergence of new challenges, such as the development of new skills and technologies that could be exploited by transnational organized crime. This report aims to address the following overarching questions: how has the ongoing war against Ukraine affected organized crime and illicit markets in Ukraine, and what are the possible implications for the country, the region and the international community? These questions are addressed through research into the following six areas: • Organized crime structures and their evolution • Drug supply and demand, including production and trafficking • Online scams, and cyber and telephone fraud • Arms trafficking • Economic crime, including smuggling of cigarettes and custom fraud • Trafficking in persons • The facilitation of illegal exit and draft evasion To address the overarching research question about the effects of the war on organized crime and illicit markets, the chapters compare data for the pre-war and post-invasion periods. The report covers the period of January 2021 to June 2024, with background data for 2019-2020 and preceding periods where available and relevant, used for contextualization. It is based on desk research and in-country fieldwork, with analysis of publicly available official statistics and secondary literature, court decisions and key informant interviews. Field data collection and analysis were conducted from December 2023 to June 2024 (see Annex A for more details). The overall purpose of this research is to provide an evidence base to the government of Ukraine and national agencies involved in responding to organized crime, the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations, and other UN Member States, for countering crime-related challenges emerging out of the war against Ukraine. This research focuses on government-controlled parts of Ukraine. Consideration of alleged war crimes is outside the scope of this research.

Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, 2025. 81p.

By The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Dnipro has long played a pivotal role in Ukraine’s political and economic development. Today, the city stands at another crossroads, as a key site for understanding how organized crime has evolved under the pressures of war. This report offers a detailed account of the city’s criminal landscape, drawing on field research, interviews, and open-source analysis.

The full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 has fuelled existing trends in Dnipro, a city already familiar with conflict since 2014. Dnipro’s proximity to the front line and its importance as a logistics and military hub have intensified its role in illicit markets, particularly in arms and drug trafficking. The city has also become one of the country’s most important bases for scam call centres, with around 30 000 people employed in operations that target victims across Russia, the EU and Ukraine itself. Many of these centres reportedly operate under the protection of law enforcement and are connected to organized crime groups. Meanwhile, corruption, which initially declined after the 2022 invasion, has made a strong comeback. Major procurement scandals, shrinking transparency and barriers to civil society participation in budget oversight suggest a renewed climate of impunity.

Dnipro’s drug economy remains resilient, with dealers reportedly targeting military personnel as clients. One trafficking group dismantled in 2024 had profits exceeding UAH10 million per month. Cases also show soldiers carrying drugs to the front or being recruited into distribution networks. While not unique to Dnipro, the city’s combination of trafficking infrastructure and military presence presents specific risks.

At the same time, the saturation of illicit weapons in the region has created a volatile environment. While organized crime groups generally avoid arms dealing, the volume of illegal stockpiles, trophy weapons and “contact-free” transactions makes Dnipro a critical node for monitoring arms flows returning from the front.

The city’s control over illicit flows —from drugs and weapons to extortion and fraud— is currently in flux. Historically shaped by figures who straddled the worlds of politics, business and crime, Dnipro has seen many of its key power brokers either exiled, imprisoned or under investigation. This has created a vacuum in which no single actor dominates, leaving the city open to new contests for control. At the same time, groups from Dnipro have spread across Ukraine, looking for safer places to work, including Odesa and Kyiv, raising the risk of increasing crime in those cities and beyond.

The report concludes that the city’s trajectory will depend on shifting political allegiances, the outcome of the war, and the extent to which Kyiv can reassert control. With national-level implications, Dnipro should be a key focus for any efforts to understand or disrupt Ukraine’s evolving organized crime landscape.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. 2025. 31p.

By The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

As Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s full-scale invasion, the port city of Odesa presents a paradox: while under frequent aerial assault, many aspects of life appear remarkably normal. This report explores how organized crime has not only survived but thrived in one of the country’s most strategically significant cities.

Odesa’s relative stability, growing economy, and reopened ports have created an oasis for criminal economies, guided by one rule: anyone can do business, as long as they do not interfere with others. This ‘free city’ model has allowed Odesa to emerge as a hub for scam call centres, synthetic drug production and tax evasion surrounding lucrative grain exports.

The study delves into a troubling overlap between legitimate business and criminal enterprise. For instance, the booming grain trade – critical for Ukraine’s economy – is plagued by fraud, shell companies and collusion with sanctioned actors. At the heart of this is the use of cash to conduct large transactions, depriving the Ukrainian state of an estimated $3 billion between May 2022 and May 2024.

Meanwhile, Odesa’s role in conscript smuggling has grown as draft evasion surges, driving prices higher. Call centres have become one of the city’s most profitable illicit ventures, targeting victims across Europe and beyond. Some rogue actors from the city’s volunteer units have also helped facilitate the resurgence of the night-time vice economy, moving drugs and sex workers to clients during curfew.

As Ukraine looks to reconstruction, the report warns that Odesa is at risk of becoming a template for criminal capture of public funds. Billions of hryvnias in aid are earmarked for rebuilding infrastructure and cultural landmarks in the city, but without effective safeguards, these funds may fall into the hands of corrupt networks.

This report offers insights into how illicit economies evolve during conflict and why stronger responses are needed now to prevent long-term damage.

Geneva: the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime 2025. 31p.

By Ian Mynot and Oksana Ihnatenko

This report summarises the main findings of the first meeting of the Taskforce on Public–Private Partnership in Fighting Financial Crime in Ukraine

Overview

On 15 November 2024, RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security and the Center for Financial Integrity (CFI)1 launched a Taskforce on Public–Private Partnership in Fighting Financial Crime in Ukraine. An in-person meeting in Warsaw, held on a non-attributable basis, convened 40 representatives, including those from the public and private sectors in Ukraine, and international experts.

The discussion included two sessions focused on the current state of public–private partnerships (PPPs) in Ukraine and on international experience and recommendations. This report summarises the main findings of each of these sessions.

London: The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. (RUSI) 2025. 15p.