By David Yerger, Brandon Vick, Robert Orth, and Charles Gartside, 

The project’s primary goal was to investigate whether shocks stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic either triggered or heightened human suffering in two crimerelated areas: murder and abuse. A secondary goal was to identify rural-urban differences in these outcomes both before and during the pandemic. An analysis of homicides and protection from abuse orders over time provided valuable insights regarding crime trends and rural-urban differences, but it did not suggest large, long-term effects due to the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the state. The statewide homicide rate rose 21 percent from 2019 to 2020, but the increase was specific to a certain group and location: Black, male victims in Philadelphia County, murdered with a firearm, with most of these incidents being homicides, with no known relationship between the victim and offender (Philadelphia County’s murder rate increased 36 percent in 2020). In rural counties, the 2020 murder rate rose 24 percent, and in non-Philadelphia urban counties, there was a 3 percent increase. It should be noted that these upward trends came after homicides steadily rose from 2014 to 2018, before falling significantly in 2019, and then rising in 2020. The exploratory analysis on county-levels of COVID case and death rates found no statistical evidence that high COVID-rate counties were more likely to experience high levels of protection from abuse orders or homicides. However, the analysis found that counties with higher unemployment rates and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation also experienced higher murder rates and protection from abuse order prevalence in 2020 (a relationship that holds when tested across other years). 

Harrisburg, PA: Center for Rural Pennsylvania, 2022.  42p.

By Brandon Vick, Robert Orth, Charles Gartside

Information on the prevalence and cost of firearm injury is difficult to find and typically lacks important details. Using a rich dataset from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council (PHC4), researchers from PCCD/IUP performed a statistical analysis of non-fatal firearm injuries from 2016 to 2021, finding the following: • Initial injury totals and costs: Over the five-year timeframe, an estimated 10,640 new, non-fatal firearm injuries occurred in Pennsylvania for which patients received treatment. The medical cost of initial treatment for these injuries was $308.4 million, or over $51 million per year. The average cost of treatment was $34,837 in 2020. • Rising medical costs and injuries: The number of total injuries increased by 20 percent and the medical cost for these injuries increased by 107 percent from 2016 to 2020. The number of accidental injuries increased by 46 percent (to over 1,000 per year in 2020), with a cost increase of 195%. Assault injuries increased by 5%, with the medical costs of these injuries increasing by 81%. • Rises with COVID: The number of firearm injuries rose dramatically immediately after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting shutdowns. Both accidental and assault injuries rose to their highest levels over the timeframe studied. • Economic and Racial Disparities: The poorest one-fifth of zip codes incurred nearly 60 percent of the total medical costs of firearm injuries. Two-thirds of all patients of firearm injuries were Black, although Black people make up only 11 percent of the Pennsylvania population. • Long-term costs: 16 percent of new injuries require additional hospital visits and incur nearly four times the medical costs, averaging over $70,000 per patient. Over 3 percent of new firearm injuries result in paralysis, increasing costs over the first year to over $100,000. • Full Economic Losses: If values are placed on lost work and lower quality of life, the total economic losses of firearm injury increase by six-fold to an estimated $300 million per year and $1.5 billion. Estimates here should be considered conservative, as they do not consider full costs to society (i.e. disability and unemployment payments) and are limited to costs only incurred during the time of visits for treatment (i.e. not counting long-term rehabilitation). Additionally, they do not include fatal injuries or shootings – for instance, over 600 people are victims of homicide by firearm and at least double that number die by firearm suicide per year. The nonfatal injury findings here are in line with estimates for U.S. injuries made separately by the Government Accountability Office and the Center for Disease Control. 

Harrisburg:  Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency , 2022.  48p.

By The Joint State Government Commission (PA) and the Pennsylvania  the Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency (PCCD) 

The specific statute under review by the TFCP is the section relating to “Sexual Abuse of Children” and is codified at 18 Pa.C.S. § 6312. 9 There are three subsections within that offense and each address a different type of behavior perpetrated by the offender: Subsection (b) of § 6312 relates to “Photographing, videotaping, depicting on computer or filming sexual act” and may be described as manufacturing or creating child pornography. This subsection criminalizes individuals who cause or knowingly permit a child under 18 to engage in a prohibited sexual act10 or simulation of said act, knowing or intending the act to be photographed or filmed. Manufacturing child pornography under subsection (b) is generally a felony of the second degree11 but is graded as a felony of the first degree12 if indecent contact13 with a child is depicted or the child is under the age of 10 or prepubescent. Subsection (c) of § 6312 relates to “Dissemination of photographs, videotapes, computer depictions and films” and may be described as distributing or selling child pornography. This subsection criminalizes individuals who knowingly sell, distribute, deliver, disseminate, transfer, display or exhibit to others images depicting a child under 18 engaged in or simulating a prohibited sexual act. Distributing child pornography under subsection (c) is generally a felony of the third degree; 14 however, it is graded a felony of the second degree if it is a second or subsequent offense, or if the images depict indecent contact with a child or the child is under the age of 10 or prepubescent. Subsection (d) of § 6312 relates to “Child Pornography” and may also be described as possession of child pornography. Subsection (d) criminalizes individuals who intentionally view, knowingly possess or control images depicting a child under 18 engaged in a prohibited sexual act or simulation of such act. Possessing child pornography is generally a felony of the third degree however, it is graded a felony of the second degree if it is a second or subsequent offense, or if the images depict indecent contact with a child or the child is under the age of 10 or prepubescent. 

Harrisburg: Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and Delinquency, 2022. 284p.

By David Bruce

The South African per-capita murder rate has steadily escalated since 2011/12, when it was at its lowest since 1994. The 2022/23 rate of 45 per 100 000 is the highest in 20 years. But focusing on national murder trends is misleading as trends vary greatly across the nine provinces. The current high per-capita murder rate is driven by high rates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng. Key findings: South African murder trends vary considerably across provinces. The Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng have the highest per-capita murder rates. In 2022/23, the Eastern Cape had the highest murder rate (71 per 100 000), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, both with annual murder rates of 56. The four provinces with the most murders have also recorded the highest per-capita murder rate increases in the last 10 years. Since 2011/12, rates have increased most dramatically in KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape. The increase has been greatest from 2017/18 to 2022/23. The per-capita murder rate in the Western Cape decreased over the last five years. Recommendations The government and society must prioritise reducing murder rates, which are high and increasing. The collection of data about murder, and the analysis thereof, must be improved. ‘One-size-fits-all’ approaches to addressing murder are unlikely to be effective. Responses should be adapted to respond to the drivers of murder focusing on high-murder localities. Priority should be given to understanding and addressing murder in the four provinces with the highest per-capita murder rates. KwaZulu-Natal and, to a lesser degree, Gauteng experienced major surges in murder in 2021/22, with increases continuing in 2022/23. These have taken them well above their rates in the year before the COVID-19 pandemic and national lockdown. Deaths during the July 2021 unrest were not a major contributor to the increases in murder in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in 2021/22. Many experts believe that the entrenchment and growth of organised crime has played a major role in the increasing number of murders. More in-depth provincially focused research and analysis is required to better understand the factors and circumstances driving murder trends. 

Pretoria, South Africa: Institute for Security Studies, 2023. 12p.

Child, early and forced marriage and unions are a reality in Latin America and the Caribbean, albeit not a highly visible one. This is a complex phenomenon associated with gender inequalities, violence, poverty, school dropout, adolescent pregnancy and inadequate, limited or non-existent legal and political frameworks, and it puts the present and future of girls and adolescent girls in jeopardy.
These practices are both the cause and the consequence of women’s limited physical, economic and decision-making autonomy, and they disproportionally affect girls and adolescent girls in rural areas and those in poor households with less access to education. In some countries, they are also associated with a notably greater prevalence among indigenous peoples.
This document seeks to turn a spotlight on this harmful practice, particularly as a detonator and aggravator of gender inequalities for girls and adolescent girls. It draws on statistical and qualitative information to offer an innovative contribution by presenting gaps in different dimensions of development, including the time that girls and adolescent girls who are married or in union spend on domestic and care tasks, and it recommends actions to address this situation at the regional level and in the countries.

Santiago, Chile: 

38p.

Violence against women and girls and its most extreme expression, femicide, feminicide, or the gender-related killing of women and girls,1 dramatically bring to light the persistence of the structural challenges of gender inequality and gender-based discrimination and violence against women and girls in Latin America and the Caribbean. The deep historical and structural roots of patriarchal, discriminatory and violent cultural patterns, grounded in a culture of privilege, have proven among the most difficult to dismantle. Gender-based violence against women and girls is systemic and persistent in the region. It knows no borders, affects women and girls of all ages and happens everywhere, from the domestic setting to public places. It happens in workplaces, within the framework of political and community participation, on public transportation and in the street, in schools and other educational institutions, in cyberspace and certainly in the home. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, has called it a “shadow pandemic

By Daniel Kane , Maeve Eogan 

Sexual violence is common in contemporary society and disproportionally affects adolescents. In order to develop effective treatment, awareness and prevention strategies it is vital that we understand the epidemiology of adolescent sexual assault (SA). The aim of this study is to evaluate attendances by female adolescents to the national sexual assault treatment unit (SATU) network in the Republic of Ireland and compare these attendances with adult women accessing the service.

Methods: This is a cross-sectional study analysing the attendances of all adolescent female attendances at the 6 SATUs in the Republic of Ireland and comparing them with all adult female attendances between 1/1/2017 and 31/12/2022.

Results: There were 1014 female adolescent attendances and 3951 female adult attendances over the timeframe studied. Adult attenders were more likely to attend within 7-days of the alleged assault compared with adolescent attenders (80.3% V 70.2% OR1.513 CI 1.35-1.697 p < 0.001). When compared with adult attenders, adolescent attenders were significantly more likely to disclose being assaulted outdoors (40.9% V 15.7% OR2.607 CI 2.346-2.898 p < 0.01), during the day (58.4% V 34.4% OR1.673 CI 1.565-1.790 p < 0.01), assaulted by a friend/family member (28.9% V 16% OR 1.812 CI1.603-2.049 p < 0.01) and less likely to have consumed alcohol prior to the incident (45.6% V 25.3% OR1.807 CI 1.653-1.975 p < 0.001). Physical injuries were less likely in adolescent attenders (30% V 35.5% OR0.845 CI 0.758-0.942 p = 0.02).

Conclusion: A comparison of the characteristics of adolescent and adult female sexual assault disclosures identifies differences regarding location of the incident, relationship to perpetrator and prevalence of alcohol consumption. Knowledge of these factors support appropriate tailoring of treatment, prevention and awareness strategies to help modify the impact and reduce the incidence of SA in the vulnerable adolescent cohort.

Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine

Volume 101, January 2024, 102613

By Laura Cayreyre , Théo Korchia , Anderson Loundou , Maeva Jego, Didier Théry , Julie Berbis , Gaëtan Gentile  Pascal Auquier  Jérémy Khouani 

Screening and care for victims of sexual violence (SV) among asylum seekers and refugees (ASRs) living in High-income host countries were prioritized by the WHO in 2020. The lack of stabilized prevalence findings on lifetime SV among ASRs in High-income countries hinders the development of adequate health management. The objective of this study was to determine the lifetime prevalence of SV experienced by ASRs living in High-income countries. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Studies were included in the meta-analysis if the sample consisted exclusively of asylum seekers or refugees over the age of 16 living in High-income countries and if they reported a lifetime prevalence of experienced SV. The results of the meta-analysis were expressed with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) as estimates of lifetime SV prevalence using a random-effects model. The estimated lifetime prevalence of SV among women ASRs was 44 % (95 % CI, 0.24–0.67) and 27 % (95 % CI, 0.18–0.38) for both sexes. This meta-analysis revealed a high prevalence of SV among ASRs hosted in High-income countries and suggest the importance of developing specific screening and care programs in these host countries.

Journal of Forensic and Legal Medicine

Volume 101, January 2024, 102622 Volume 101, January 2024, 102622

By  DeFacto Consultancy

 This analysis reveals that the media predominantly reported on cases of physical (76.9%) and sexual (68.3%) violence. On the other hand, cases of structural/systemic violence were reported in 10.9% of the analysed media reports, while cases of economic violence in 10.3% of cases. The media have the least frequently covered online or digital violence (9.8%) and selective abortion cases (7%). z In more than half of the analysed cases (58.1%) the media reported cases of gender-based violence (GBV) as a private matter. Furthermore, media have the most commonly reported physical (63.8%) and sexual (61.8%) violence as private matters, and reports on these two types of violence were least often categorized as educational in nature. In slightly more than half of the cases (50.7%), the media reported domestic violence as a private matter.

z The principle of presumption of innocence of the perpetrator was observed in 99.4% of the analysed cases. z The media have rarely use stereotypes to describe victims of GBV and infrequently provide justification for the perpetrators. z Sensationalistic elements are present in reporting on GBV, with 10.8% of the cases in headlines and 3.9% of the cases within the actual media reports. In slightly over one-fifth of the cases (21%), analysed media reports featured some form of sensationalistic audio-visual material. z The analysis shows that when reporting on GBV, the media used the statement of the victim in 14.4% and the statement of the (potential) perpetrator in 7.4% of the cases. These media reports did not record whether the statements were used with or without the consent of those quoted. z Media reporting on GBV was educational in nature in only 15.2% of cases. Additionally, statistical data were used in only 14.7% of the analysed media reports, and expert opinions were featured in only 20.9% of them. z Media reporting on GBV lacked more comprehensive contextualization of the issue; journalists rarely use comparative examples, statistical data, or legislative analysis. Effects of media reporting z Unprofessional media reporting on gender-based violence contributes to the reinforcement of societal stereotypes. z Traditional respondents (30%) tend to form negative views regarding the attribution of blame to women, the victims of violence when exposed to unprofessional media reporting. 

z 22% of citizens believe that a man is always to blame for violence committed by a man against a woman/partner. Additionally, 30.1% believe that a man is mostly to blame but that some blame falls on the woman. Furthermore, 3.4% believe that a woman is mostly to blame and that she provoked the incident. The largest group, comprising 44.5% of respondents, states that it is difficult to ascertain blame until both sides are heard. z Among respondents with authoritarian tendencies, one-third (34%) endorse sanctions if a partner does not fulfil household or marital obligations. When these respondents are exposed to unprofessional media reporting on GBV, every second person (51%) believes that sanctions should exist. z One in four respondents, i.e. 27.4 % of citizens, believe that women and girls falsely claim to be victims of violence just to attract attention to themselves. z Among respondents who say there is more violence against women today than before, there are significantly more of those who have read a professionally written article (56.3%) on GBV as part of an experimental treatment, while 25.4% have been exposed to an unprofessionally written article. 

Vienna: OSCE, 2023. 68p.

By Göran Adamson

In 2005, the Swedish Crime Prevention Agency published a report about the link between immigration and crime. Since then, no comprehensive study has been conducted even though Sweden has experienced a large influx of migrants in combination with a rising crime rate. This study conducted by Göran Adamson and Tino Sanandaji is the first purely descriptive scientific investigation on the matter in fifteen years. The investigation (from 2002 to 2017) covers seven distinct categories of crime, and distinguishes between seven regions of origin. Based on 33 percent of the population (2017), 58 percent of those suspect for total crime on reasonable grounds are migrants. Regarding murder, manslaughter and attempted murder, the figures are 73 per cent, while the proportion of robbery is 70 percent. Non-registered migrants are linked to about 13 percent of total crime. Given the fact that this group is small, crime propensity among non-registered migrants is significant.

Sweden; Society, 2020. 13p.

By Clara Martiny, Cécile Simmons, Francesca Visser, Rhea Bhatnagar, Isabel Jones, Allison Castillo Small

In 2022, the United States witnessed both dramatic breakthroughs and calamitous setbacks on women’s rights, from Ketanji Brown becoming the first Black woman to sit on Supreme Court of the United States to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a legal precedent that protected a woman’s right to bodily autonomy for over 50 years. These events, among many others, had an undeniable impact on the US information environment, with 2022 seeing the rapid growth in popularity of misogynistic and male supremacist influencers who openly advocate for violence against women and campaigns of hate and disinformation targeted against women celebrities speaking out against the abuse they have faced.

This report looks back at 2022 to examine online conversations around nine different real-world events impacting women in the US and explores the potential correlation between these offline events and the targeting of women with misogynistic and abusive content on social media. This study also attempts to identify how misogyny, abusive content, and gendered disinformation may be amplified and deployed in the lead-up to the 2024 US presidential election.

Berlin: IDS - Institute for Security Dialogue, 2023. 31p.

By Michael T. Light, Jingying Hea, and Jason P. Robey

We make use of uniquely comprehensive arrest data from the Texas Department of Public Safety to compare the criminality of undocumented immigrants to legal immigrants and native-born US citizens between 2012 and 2018. We find that undocumented immigrants have substantially lower crime rates than native-born citizens and legal immigrants across a range of felony offenses. Relative to undocumented immigrants, US-born citizens are over 2 times more likely to be arrested for violent crimes, 2.5 times more likely to be arrested for drug crimes, and over 4 times more likely to be arrested for property crimes. In addition, the proportion of arrests involving undocumented immigrants in Texas was relatively stable or decreasing over this period. The differences between US-born citizens and undocumented immigrants are robust to using alternative estimates of the broader undocumented population, alternate classifications of those counted as “undocumented” at arrest and substituting misdemeanors or convictions as measures of crime.

 Madison, Wisconsin: 2020. 8p.

Earthsight’s year-long investigation reveals that cotton used by two of the world’s largest fast fashion companies, H&M and Zara, is linked to large-scale deforestation, land grabbing, human rights abuses and violent land conflicts in the Brazilian Cerrado, a biome known as the world’s most biodiverse savannah.

The destruction being wrought in the Cerrado – home to five per cent of the world’s species (including giant armadillos, tapirs, jaguars, rheas) – by industrial agriculture has been even worse than that seen in the Amazon. About half of the biome’s native vegetation has been lost. Nearly a fifth of its species, including the maned wolf and blue-eyed ground dove, face extinction due to habitat loss. Major Cerrado rivers could see their water levels drop by a third by 2050 due mostly to deforestation and overexploitation.

Over the last decade Brazilian cotton has gained prominence in the global fashion market. The country is now the world’s second largest exporter and expected to be the number one cotton supplier by 2030. In the decade to 2023, Brazil’s exports more than doubled. Almost all this cotton is grown in the Cerrado. 
 
Our investigators found that H&M and Zara’s clothes suppliers in Asia source cotton grown in the western portion of the Brazilian state of Bahia by two of the country’s largest producers: SLC Agrícola and the Horita Group.

Both companies are implicated in some of Brazil’s most egregious land grabbing cases. In Bahia’s municipality of Formosa do Rio Preto, Horita has been closely linked to the violent land disputes pitting a mega agribusiness estate against traditional communities, known as geraizeiros, that have inhabited the area since the 19th century. More than 10 years ago geraizeiros started experiencing harassment and violence by armed men working for the estate. In 2018, Bahia’s attorney general found the estate was one of the largest areas of public land grabbed in Brazilian history and launched a lawsuit against it to recover these lands.

In the municipality of Correntina, large agribusinesses are accused of misappropriating public lands inhabited by the traditional community of Capão do Modesto to convert them into protected areas for their farms in a process known as ‘green land grabbing’. Instead of setting aside part of their productive properties for environmental conservation, several agribusinesses have acquired land elsewhere for this purpose. Both the Horita Group and SLC Agrícola have cotton farms in Bahia that are linked to green land grabbing at Capão do Modesto. Bahia’s attorney general has referred to Capão as "one of the most serious land grabbing cases in Bahia,” and requested the cancellation of all land titles overlapping it. The local community has suffered harassment, surveillance and attacks carried out by gunmen linked to the agribusinesses.

The Horita Group and SLC Agrícola have a brazen history of environmental infractions in western Bahia, where both companies have been repeatedly fined for illegal deforestation. SLC has been named one of the top deforesters in the Cerrado. Some of its cotton farms in western Bahia have lost at least 40,000 hectares of native vegetation in the last 12 years. Earthsight conservatively estimates Horita has cleared at least 30,000ha over the last 20 years, but the true number is probably closer to 60,000ha. 

As part of their sustainability efforts, H&M and Zara rely on a fundamentally flawed ethical supply chain certification system called Better Cotton (BC). The cotton we linked to land rights and environmental abuses in Bahia carried the Better Cotton label. This should not be surprising. The scheme suffers from several weaknesses, including in relation to requirements on compliance with local laws, respect for local communities’ rights and illegal deforestation. A new traceability system being rolled out in the coming years is woefully inadequate as it only traces cotton back to the country of origin, not to individual farms. Earthsight also identified worrying problems with BC’s accreditation and compliance systems. In Brazil, a national cotton producers’ association (ABRAPA) is in charge of the certification programme, a serious conflict of interest.

By James Lewis, Sarah Marsden, Adrian Cherney, Martine Zeuthen, Lotta Rahlf, Chloe Squires, Anne Peterscheck

Background

Increasingly, counter-radicalisation interventions are using case management approaches to structure the delivery of tailored services to those at risk of engaging in, or engaged in, violent extremism. This review sets out the evidence on case management tools and approaches and is made up of two parts with the following objectives.

Objectives

Part I: (1) Synthesise evidence on the effectiveness of case management tools and approaches in interventions seeking to counter radicalisation to violence. (2) Qualitatively synthesise research examining whether case management tools and approaches are implemented as intended, and the factors that explain how they are implemented. Part II: (3) Synthesise systematic reviews to understand whether case management tools and approaches are effective at countering non-terrorism related interpersonal or collective forms of violence. (4) Qualitatively synthesise research analysing whether case management tools and approaches are implemented as intended, and what influences how they are implemented. (5) Assess the transferability of tools and approaches used in wider violence prevention work to counter-radicalisation interventions.

Search Methods

Search terms tailored for Part I and Part II were used to search research repositories, grey literature sources and academic journals for studies published between 2000 and 2022. Searches were conducted in August and September 2022. Forward and backward citation searches and consultations with experts took place between September 2022 and February 2023. Studies in English, French, German, Russian, Swedish, Norwegian and Danish were eligible.

Selection Criteria

Part I: Studies had to report on a case management intervention, tool or approach, or on specific stages of the case management process. Only experimental and stronger quasi-experimental studies were eligible for inclusion in the analysis of effectiveness. The inclusion criteria for the analysis of implementation allowed for other quantitative designs and qualitative research. Part II: Systematic reviews examining a case management intervention, tool or approach, or stage(s) of the case management process focused on countering violence were eligible for inclusion.

Data Collection and Analysis

Part I: 47 studies were eligible for Part I. No studies met the inclusion criteria for Objective 1; all eligible studies related to Objective 2. Data from these studies was synthesised using a framework synthesis approach and presented narratively. Risk of bias was assessed using the CASP (for qualitative research) and EPHPP (for quantitative research) checklists. Part I: Eight reviews were eligible for Part II. Five reviews met the inclusion criteria for Objective 3, and seven for Objective 4. Data from the studies was synthesised using a framework synthesis approach and presented narratively. Risk of bias was assessed using the AMSTAR II tool.

Findings

Part I: No eligible studies examined effectiveness of tools and approaches. Seven studies examined the implementation of different approaches, or the assumptions underpinning interventions. Clearly defined theories of change were absent, however these interventions were assessed as being implemented in line with their own underlying logic. Forty-three studies analysed the implementation of tools during individual stages of the case management process, and forty-one examined the implementation of this process as-a-whole. Factors which influenced how individual stages and the case management process as a whole were implemented included strong multi-agency working arrangements; the inclusion of relevant knowledge and expertise, and associated training; and the availability of resources. The absence of these facilitators inhibited implementation. Additional implementation barriers included overly risk-oriented logics; public and political pressure; and broader legislation. Twenty-eight studies identified moderators that shaped how interventions were delivered, including delivery context; local context; standalone interventions; and client challenges. Part II: The effectiveness of two interventions – mentoring and multi-systemic therapy – in reducing violent outcomes were each assessed by one systematic review, whilst three reviews analysed the impact that the use of risk assessment tools (n = 2) and polygraphs (n = 1) had on outcomes. All these reviews reported mixed results. Comparable factors to those identified in Part I, such as staff training and expertise and delivery context, were found to shape implementation. On the basis of this modest sample, the research on interventions to counter non-terrorism related violence was assessed to be transferable to counter-radicalisation interventions.

Authors' Conclusions

The effectiveness of existing case management tools and approaches is poorly understood, and research examining the factors that influence how different approaches are implemented is limited. However, there is a growing body of research on the factors which facilitate or generate barriers to the implementation of case management interventions. Many of the factors and moderators relevant to countering radicalisation to violence also impact how case management tools and approaches used to counter other forms of violence are implemented. Research in this wider field seems to have transferable insights for efforts to counter radicalisation to violence. This review provides a platform for further research to test the impact of different tools, and the mechanisms by which they inform outcomes. This work will benefit from using the case management framework as a way of rationalising and analysing the range of tools, approaches and processes that make up case managed interventions to counter radicalisation to violence.
Campbell Systematic Reviews
Volume 20, Issue 2

June 2024

By Ashley N. Muchow

Amid punitive shifts in crime and immigration control during the 1980s and 1990s, Hispanic individuals com-prised a growing share of the population confined in U.S.prisons and jails. Although it is widely acknowledged that the nation’s wars on crime and drugs contribute to higher rates of minority arrest, limited empirical research has examined whether the merging of immi-gration control with criminal justice practice during this period intensified these disparities. This article uses county-level arrest data from California between 1980and 2004 to investigate whether intergovernmental ser-vice agreements (IGSAs) leasing jail space for immigrant detention increased rates of Hispanic arrest. Employing A quasi-experimental design that leverages the staggered adoption of IGSAs across counties, this study finds that these agreements increased rates of Hispanic arrest but had no discernible impact on arrest rates for White Or Black residents. Supplemental analyses reveal that these increases were driven by misdemeanor arrests and were particularly pronounced in counties where the His-panic population comprised between 11 and 22 percent.These findings suggest that IGSAs may trigger minority threat concerns that increase arrests, shedding additional light on Hispanic representation in the criminal justice system.

Criminology, early view, May 2024.

By Charles Fain Lehman

Drug policing faces two simultaneous crises. One is the drug crisis itself, which the public and policymakers expect police to play a role in suppressing. The other is a crisis of public confidence, in policing in general but especially in the efficacy of the enforcement-driven “War on Drugs.” This report frames an approach to policing drugs meant to address both crises—a 21st-century approach to drug policing.

Routine drug policing is widely perceived to be an ineffective approach to controlling drug problems. This is because it is relatively hard for policing to cut off the supply of drugs altogether. Routine enforcement can increase the price of drugs, making the drugs scarcer, but these effects are likely small, and the effects of price on demand are, in turn, quite small in addicted subpopulations. These concerns are particularly relevant in the current crisis, in which novel methods of drug production have driven prices to rock bottom.

Faced with this evidence, some argue that policing and drug problems should be totally disconnected, through a policy of decriminalization. This, advocates argue, would reduce both the health harms of drug use and the harms of the criminal-justice system. However, the evidence indicates that the former claim is probably wrong—the expected average effect of decriminalization on figures like the overdose death rate is probably close to zero. Moreover, policymakers are capable of addressing the fact that the criminal-justice system can harm drug users, and it would be foolhardy to drop the good aspects of drug enforcement as a method to avoid these “bads.”

What are the “goods” of drug policing, and how can they be bolstered? This report culminates in three strategies for a modern, evidence-based approach to drug policing:

• Drug-Market Crackdowns: Rather than do routine, haphazard enforcement, police can focus all their resources on particular drug markets or drug problems and enforce against them simultaneously. This has the effect of crippling the market, circumventing the limited effects that policing has on price by substantially reducing supply altogether.

• Responding to Emerging Threats: Emerging drug markets—especially novel synthetic substances—represent a particular opportunity for police effectiveness. By differentially targeting small markets, police can keep them small, having an outsize impact relative to targeting large but hard-to-control markets.

• Policing as Public Health: Police officers are not just enforcers; they are also first responders, and they should see themselves as frontline actors in getting people the treatment they need. Equipping police with naloxone is a widely taken first step. But treatment referral following overdose, or diversion to treatment in lieu of arrest or prosecution, is a promising way for police to take the lead on controlling drug problems.

These strategies collectively imply a more strategic approach to drug policing than the historical norm. Routine buy-busts are likely no longer effective strategies for fighting the drug crisis—if they ever were. But police can still play a substantial role in combating the drug crisis. And if they do so intelligently, they can regain the public’s trust.

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2024. 26p.

By Scott R. Kegler, et al.

Introduction: The majority of homicides (79%) and suicides (53%) in the United States involved a firearm in 2020. High firearm homicide and suicide rates and corresponding inequities by race and ethnicity and poverty level represent important public health concerns. This study examined changes in firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates coinciding with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Methods: National vital statistics and population data were integrated with urbanization and poverty measures at the county level. Population-based firearm homicide and suicide rates were examined by age, sex, race and ethnicity, geographic area, level of urbanization, and level of poverty.

Results: From 2019 to 2020, the overall firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%, from 4.6 to 6.1 per 100,000 persons. The largest increases occurred among non-Hispanic Black or African American males aged 10–44 years and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) males aged 25–44 years. Rates of firearm homicide were lowest and increased least at the lowest poverty level and were higher and showed larger increases at higher poverty levels. The overall firearm suicide rate remained relatively unchanged from 2019 to 2020 (7.9 to 8.1); however, in some populations, including AI/AN males aged 10–44 years, rates did increase.

Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the firearm homicide rate in the United States reached its highest level since 1994, with substantial increases among several population subgroups. These increases have widened disparities in rates by race and ethnicity and poverty level. Several increases in firearm suicide rates were also observed. Implementation of comprehensive strategies employing proven approaches that address underlying economic, physical, and social conditions contributing to the risks for violence and suicide is urgently needed to reduce these rates and disparities.

 MMWR Morb Motal Wkly Rep. 2022; 71(19):656-663. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7119e1Google ScholarCrossref

By Alex R. Piquero,  John K. Roman

This cross-sectional study evaluates changes in firearm homicide demographics before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Introduction

In 2020, the US experienced the largest 1-year increase in homicide since 1960. The spike began in the first few months of the year, accelerating during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency measures, the murder of George Floyd, and social protests.1

Three additional observations are relevant. First, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the homicide increase in 2020 was due to firearm injuries. While the overall homicide rate increased 28.4%, the firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%.2 Second, the spike in violence was concentrated within certain demographic groups. CDC researchers found 19 384 victims of firearms homicide in 2020.3 Of those victims, 61% were Black individuals, and they experienced firearm homicide at 14 times the rate of White indviduals in 2020. This racial disparity does not exist for other types of violence.4 Third, the largest increases in death by firearm homicide were for Black men aged between 10 and 44 years old.5

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Methods

This cross-sectional study queried mortality data from the CDC WONDER online database to examine race and ethnicity disparities in death by firearm homicide by 5-year age-band categories for the period 2018 through 2022 (2022 includes provisional data), before, during, and subsequent to the pandemic.6 The CDC WONDER database provides information on race and ethnicity as reported on death certificates. Population-adjusted rates were returned by the database using data from the US Census Bureau. Exemption of institutional review board review was granted by The University of Miami. Informed consent was not required because the study used publicly available data without personal identifying information. All analyses were completed in Excel version 16.0 (Microsoft).

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Results

Figure 1 displays the crude rate of death by firearm homicide per 100 000 for all individuals, White individuals only, Black individuals only, and Hispanic or Latino individuals of any race. Four results are evident. First, among all groups, 2 age bands (20-24 and 25-29 years) show the highest peaks. Second, the year 2021 has the highest rate for the majority of age bands. Third, firearm homicides for White individuals also peaked in 2021, with persons aged 20 to 34 years having the highest risk. Fourth, rates for White individuals never top 4.3 per 100 000. Among Black individuals, for those persons aged 20 to 24 years, the rate is over 80 per 100 000. Finally, Figure 2 displays the ratio of Black to White homicide victimization by age group, by year. For those aged 15 to 19 years, the rate for Black individuals in 2021 is 27 times the rate for White individuals.

JAMA Netw Open. 2024 May; 7(5): e2412946.

By Rebecca Shea and Jared B. Smith
  All federal programs and operations are at risk of fraud. Therefore, agencies need robust processes in place to prevent, detect, and respond to fraud. While the government obligated almost $40 trillion from fiscal years 2018 through 2022, no reliable estimates of fraud losses affecting the federal government previously existed. As part of GAO’s work on managing fraud risks, this report (1) estimates the range of total direct annual financial losses from fraud based on 2018-2022 data and (2) identifies opportunities and challenges in fraud estimation to support fraud risk management. GAO estimated the range of total direct annual financial losses from fraud based on 2018-2022 data using a Monte Carlo simulation model. GAO identified opportunities and challenges through interviews and data collection focused on 12 agencies representing about 90 percent of federal obligations. What GAO Recommends GAO is making two recommendations to OMB—one in collaboration with the Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency (CIGIE) and the other with agency input to improve the availability of fraud-related data. GAO is also making a recommendation to the Department of the Treasury to expand government-wide fraud estimation, in consultation with OMB. OMB generally agreed with the recommendations but disagreed with the estimate. GAO believes the estimate is sound, as discussed in the report. CIGIE stated it would work with OMB to consider how OIGs might improve fraud-related data. Treasury agreed with the recommendation.   

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2024. 80p.

By David Blake Johnson and Joshua J. Robinson

We explore the relationship between gun prevalence and homicides in the United States from 2003–2019. Unlike previous research, which typically uses an indirect, state-level measure of gun prevalence, we use a direct measure of guns in a narrow geographic area: gun dealers. We find an increase in gun dealer density is significantly and positively associated with increased homicides in subsequent years. We compare estimates from our preferred measure, the number of dealers per 100 square miles in a local area, to those found using other gun prevalence measures. We find our preferred measure to be more consistent in magnitude across three different estimation methods and two different data sources. We additionally show the effect of gun dealer density is limited mostly to counties that have a high percent of Black residents. We propose that the so-called “Ferguson Effect”—a sharp increase in violent crime in urban and Black communities after 2014—might be partially explained by an influx of gun dealers in and near Black communities, rather than just a change in the propensity of Black residents to call the police or changes in police behavior.

Unpublished paper 2021. 48p.

Johnson, David Blake and Robinson, Joshua J., Gun Dealer Density and its Effect on Homicide (November 17, 2021).