Focused Deterrence, Strategic Management, and Effective Gun Violence Prevention

By Anthony A.Braga, John M.MacDonald,  Stephen Douglas,  Brian Wade,  Benjamin Struh

The evaluation literature suggests that focused deterrence strategies are effective in reducing gun violence. However, focused deterrence is notoriously difficult to implement and sustain. The history of focused deterrence implementation failure raises questions about its viability as a gun violence prevention strategy. Stockton, California, implemented focused deterrence three times during the past 25 years. In its most recent version, Stockton officials explicitly designed the strategy to be a permanent feature of the city’s violence prevention portfolio. Although program caseloads diminished over the course of the COVID-19 pandemicandthestrategyfacedleadershipandresource challenges, Stockton’s efforts prevented the program from being discontinued and, for those gang members who did receive treatment, delivered a robust gun violence prevention strategy. A quasi-experimental evaluation showsthattreated gang members wireless likely to be shot and reduced their violent offending relative to similar untreated gang members. The focused deterrence impacts also appear to spill over to gang members who were socially connected to treated gang members. 

Criminology & Public Policy, 2024.