Problem-Oriented Participative Forecasting Theory and Practice

By: Fedor Gal and Pavol Fric

Problem-oriented participative forecasting (POPF) is an autonomous and evolving concept. It aims not only to provide early signals of threats to development or to identify opportunities for development, but also to articulate interests and mobilize different social groups to act in a manner conducive to the elimination of such threats and exploitation of such opportunities. This concept of the function of forecasting has major factual and methodological implications. The focus of this article is primarily on the forecasting process as a way of active social learning and anticipatory behavior. It attempts to synthesize the problem-oriented and participative approaches to forecasting into a single methodology, which it documents by a specific example of its application in science forecasting in the Slovak Socialist Republic.

Futures, Volume 19, Issue 6, December 1987, Pages 678-685