The line from platform to peril: a longitudinal analysis of crime patterns at light rail stations in Charlotte, NC

By M. Dylan Spencer, Cory Schnell, Samuel E. DeWitt

Objectives: Public transportation systems experience dynamic changes over time to accommodate growing cities, yet evaluations of their impact on crime often focus on shorter, static periods. This study examines the long-term relationship between light rail expansion and crime, using a 20-year observation period in Charlotte, NC. We analyze changes in crime patterns near original, expanded, and planned light rail station locations. Methods: We conducted a quasi-experimental program evaluation of the opening of light rail stations on crime at place. We estimated Poisson regression models with fixed effects and difference in difference models to analyze crime incidents at street intersections surrounding light rail stations across varying spatial distances. Results: Our findings suggest that the expansion of the light rail system led to an increase in crime around train stations. We observe a significant intervention effect across multiple crime categories and spatial distances. These analyses suggest the effect appears stronger after the expansion of light rail service to additional train stations. Conclusions: These results have implications for a wide range of community stakeholders involved with the planning of public transportation. Given the evolving demand for transit systems, our findings highlight the need for crime prevention policies to accompany infrastructure expansion and mitigate crime.

J Exp Criminol (2025), 39p.