By Marco De Nadai, Yanyan Xu, Emmanuel Letouzé, Marta C. González & Bruno Lepri

Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors infuence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Seminal studies analyse crime records through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio-economic characteristics) and often at large in a single city. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how violent and property crimes are related not only to socio-economic factors but also to the built environment (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. To that end, we analyse crime at small areas and integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces to compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogotá, Los Angeles and Chicago. We fnd that the combined use of socio-economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio-ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no “one fits all” model.

Scientific Reports volume 10, Article number: 13871 (2020).

By William Perry and Others

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London. J. Bumpus et al. 1819. 259p.

By Rosenfeld, Richard; Boxerman, Bobby; Lopez, Ernesto, Jr.

From the Introduction: "This report updates CCJ's [Council on Criminal Justice's] previous studies [hyperlink] of crime changes during the coronavirus pandemic, extending the analyses with data through December of 2022. The current study finds a drop in homicide, aggravated assaults, and gun assaults and a rise in robbery and most property crimes. The authors' conclusions have not changed: to achieve substantial and sustainable reductions in violence and crime, cities should adopt evidence-based crime-control strategies and long-needed reforms to policing. The 35 cities included in this study were selected based on data availability [...] and range from Richmond, VA, the smallest, with 227,000 residents, to New York, the largest, with more than 8.4 million residents. The mean population of the cities for which crime data were available is approximately 1.1 million, while the median population is roughly 652,000. This report assesses monthly changes between January of 2018 and December of 2022 for the following 10 crimes: homicide, aggravated assault, gun assault, domestic violence, robbery, residential burglary, nonresidential burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and drug offenses. As in the previous reports, this analysis focuses special attention on the trend in homicides. It also examines in greater detail than in prior reports the substantial increase in motor vehicle thefts and carjacking since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020."

Council On Criminal Justice. 2023. 29p.

By Reynolds, John, active 1621-1650

The triumphs of Gods revenge against the crying and execrable sinne of (wilful and premeditated) murther : with his miraculous discoveries, and severe punishment thereof : in thirty several tragical histories, (digested into six books) committed in divers countreys beyond the seas : never published or imprinted in any other language.

London : Printed by A.M. for William Lee, and are to be sold by George Sawbridg, Francis Tyton, John Martin ... [and 9 others]. 1670. 508p.

By Lesley Williams Reid

By exploring the political and economic histories of Atlanta, Boston, Detroit, and New Orleans, Reid documents how each city experienced the demise of the industrial, welfare-state political economy and the rise of the post-industrial, absentee-state political economy and how these transformations have affected urban crime rates. Crime rates increased as manufacturing employment decreased. By contrast, high-skill service-sector growth led to less crime in Boston, while low-skill service-sector growth led to more crime in Atlanta. In addition, those cities emphasizing criminal justice expenditures at the expense of social welfare expenditures have had more crime than those cities that did not. Political and economic conditions have influenced crime rates, in sometimes surprising ways, across the post-World War II urban landscape.

New York: LFB Scholarly Publishing, 2003. 269p.