By Elmarije K. van Straalena, Christianne J. de Poota, Marijke Malschd , Henk Elffers

Forensic reports use various types of conclusions, such as a categorical (CAT) conclusion or a likelihood ratio (LR). In order to correctly assess the evidence, users of forensic reports need to understand the conclusion and its evidential strength. The aim of this paper is to study the interpretation of the evidential strength of forensic conclusions by criminal justice professionals. In an online questionnaire 269 professionals assessed 768 reports on fingerprint examination and answered questions that measured self-proclaimed and actual understanding of the reports and conclusions. The reports entailed CAT, verbal LR and numerical LR conclusions with low or high evidential strength and were assessed by crime scene investigators, police detectives, public prosecutors, criminal lawyers, and judges. The results show that about a quarter of all questions measuring actual understanding of the reports were answered incorrectly. The CAT conclusion was best understood for the weak conclusions, the three strong conclusions were all assessed similarly. The weak CATconclusion correctly emphasizes the uncertainty of any conclusion type used. However, most participants underestimated the strength of this weak CAT conclusion compared to the other weak conclusion types. Looking at the self-proclaimed understanding of all professionals, they in general overestimated their actual understanding of all conclusion types.

Forensic Science International, Volume 313, August 2020, 110331

By W. H. Hammond & Edna Chayen

Study Focus: The document examines persistent offenders liable to preventive detention in 1956, analyzing their criminal characteristics and the effectiveness of preventive detention.

Preventive Detention: It highlights the ineffectiveness of preventive detention in reducing crime among persistent offenders, noting that only a small proportion are diverted from crime.

Comparison: The study compares these offenders with those from a previous study byProfessor Norval Morris, finding similar characteristics over a 20-year period.

Recommendations: Suggestions are made for improving the selection and treatment of offenders to better protect society and rehabilitate criminals.

London, Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 1963, 237 pages

By Robert D. Crutchfield 

Are the unemployed more likely to commit crimes? Does having a job make one less likely to commit a crime? Criminologists have found that individuals who are marginalized from the labor market are more likely to commit crimes, and communities with more members who are marginal to the labor market have higher rates of crime. Yet, as Robert Crutchfield explains, contrary to popular expectations, unemployment has been found to be an inconsistent predictor of either individual criminality or collective crime rates. In Get a Job, Crutchfield offers a carefully nuanced understanding of the links among work, unemployment, and crime.

Crutchfield explains how people’s positioning in the labor market affects their participation in all kinds of crimes, from violent acts to profit-motivated offenses such as theft and drug trafficking. Crutchfield also draws on his first-hand knowledge of growing up in a poor, black neighborhood in Pittsburgh and later working on the streets as a parole officer, enabling him to develop a more complete understanding of how work and crime are related and both contribute to, and are a result of, social inequalities and disadvantage. Well-researched and informative, Get a Job tells a powerful story of one of the most troubling side effects of economic disparities in America.

New York; London: NYU Press, 2014. 303p.

By Louise Mansfield, Norma Daykin, Neil E. O'Connell, Daniel Bailey, Louise Forde, Robyn Smith, Jake Gifford, Garcia Ashdown-Franks

Background

Young people who enter the justice system experience complex health and social needs, and offending behaviour is increasingly recognised as a public health problem. Arts interventions can be used with the aim of preventing or reducing offending or reoffending.

Objectives

1. To evaluate evidence on the effectiveness and impact of arts interventions on keeping children and young people safe from involvement in violence and crime. 2. To explore factors impacting the implementation of arts interventions, and barriers and facilitators to participation and achievement of intended outcomes. 3. To develop a logic model of the processes by which arts interventions might work in preventing offending behaviours.

Search Methods

We searched AMED, Academic Search Complete; APA PsycInfo; CINAHL Plus; ERIC; SocIndex; SportDiscus, Medline, CENTRAL, Web of Science, Scopus, PTSDPubs and Performing Arts Periodicals Database, Sage, the US National Criminal Justice Reference Service, the Global Policing and British Library EThOS databases, and the National Police Library from inception to January 2023 without language restrictions.

Selection Criteria

We included randomised and non-randomised controlled trials and quasi-experimental study designs. We included qualitative studies conducted alongside intervention trials investigating experiences and perceptions of participants, and offering insight into the barriers and facilitators to delivering and receiving arts interventions. We included qualitative and mixed methods studies focused on delivery of arts interventions. We included studies from any global setting. We included studies with CYP (8–25 years) who were identified as at-risk of offending behaviour (secondary populations) or already in the criminal justice system (tertiary populations). We included studies of interventions involving arts participation as an intervention on its own or alongside other interventions. Primary outcomes were: (i) offending behaviour and (ii) anti-pro-social behaviours. Secondary outcomes were: participation/attendance at arts interventions, educational attainment, school attendance and engagement and exclusions, workplace engagement, wellbeing, costs and associated economic outcomes and adverse events.

Data Collection and Analysis

We included 43 studies (3 quantitative, 38 qualitative and 2 mixed methods). We used standard methodological procedures expected by The Campbell Collaboration. We used GRADE and GRADE CERQual to assess the certainty of and confidence in the evidence for quantitative and qualitative data respectively.

Main Results

We found insufficient evidence from quantitative studies to support or refute the effectiveness of arts interventions for CYP at-risk of or who have offended for any outcome. Qualitative evidence suggested that arts interventions may lead to positive emotions, the development of a sense of self, successful engagement in creative practices, and development of positive personal relationships. Arts interventions may need accessible and flexible delivery and are likely to be engaging if they have support from staff, family and community members, are delivered by professional artists, involve culturally relevant activity, a youth focus, regularity and a sustainable strategy. We found limited evidence that a lack of advocacy, low funding, insufficient wider support from key personnel in adjacent services could act as barriers to success. Methodological limitations resulted in a judgement of very low confidence in these findings.

Authors' Conclusions

We found insufficient evidence from quantitative studies to support or refute the effectiveness of arts interventions for CYP at-risk of offending or who have offended for any outcome. We report very low confidence about the evidence for understanding the processes influencing the successful design and delivery of arts interventions in this population of CYP and their impact on behavioural, psychosocial, cognitive and offending outcomes.

Campbell Systematic Reviews Volume20, Issue1 March 2024 e1377

By Maury Nation

The author reports on the motivation for developing and performing the Nashville Longitudinal Study of Youth Safety and Wellbeing (NLSYSW) as well as the project’s activities and outcomes, and resulting artifacts. The work of the NLSYSW was organized into working groups corresponding to the principal required tasks to develop the multi-sectoral dataset. The four data collection working groups focused on the following: Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools (MNPS) administrative data; MNPS survey data; contextual data; and youth mapping data. Two data management working groups focused on data anonymization and data archiving. The report describes the major tasks of each working group, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic disruptions, and NLSYSW outputs and artifacts. The major output of the study was a compilation of multiple data sources with over two million observations and 450 variables; the report provides a list of data sources with the years of data included and a short description of each data set, and directs readers to the user guide and codebook sections for complete details.

Nashville, TN: Vanderbilt University, 2023. 167p.

By Peggy C. Giordano; Monica A. Longmore; Wendy D. Manning; Jennifer E. Copp

The research described in this report sought to address social and individual-level mechanisms that drive successful and sustained criminal desistance through a mixed-method project that included analyses based on the existing six waves of the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) over an 18-year time span. The researchers’ goal was to more fully inform criminal justice policy priorities and help design more effective criminal recidivism intervention efforts. The researchers proposed conducting desistance narratives with a subset of male and female respondents who had evidenced a pattern of sustained criminal desistance, and contrasting those respondents with individuals who have persisted in criminal activity as well as others with patterns of intermittent criminal activity. The report details the researchers’ methodology, and notes that their goal was to incorporate insights from the narratives as well as contemporary theorizing to systematically distinguish individuals who persisted, desisted, and were intermittently involved in criminal activity. The three guiding research aims were: to identify individual-level factors linked to sustained desistance; to examine social network influences on desistance processes; and to determine gender similarities and differences in desistance processes. The report provides a discussion of outcomes and findings, and a listing of artifacts that resulted from the project.

Bowling Green, OH: Bowling Green State University, 2023. 27p.

By Peter Leasure and Hunter M. Boehme

Efforts such as evidence-based policing and data-driven policing have argued for the use of research and data analysis in the decision-making process for law enforcement agencies. The current study sought to examine the importance of data collection and data analysis across Ohio law enforcement agencies and whether Ohio law enforcement agencies are interested in improving their data collection and data analysis procedures. The results showed that the majority of respondents strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that data collection and data analysis are key components of their decision-making process, and that their agency could benefit from improved data collection and data analysis procedures. However, a nontrivial number of respondents strongly disagreed or somewhat disagreed that data collection and data analysis are key components of their decision-making process, and that their agency could benefit from improved data collection and data analysis procedures. Recommendations informed by these results are discussed in detail.

Drug Enforcement and Policy Center. July 2023, 8pg

By James Austin, Richard Rosenfeld and Todd Clear

Florida has benefited from the national drop in crime that began in the early 1990s. Its growth in incarceration also paralleled the steady national imprisonment rise of the last forty-five years. Florida’s rate peaked around 2010 and has been declining ever since. Policy makers would benefit from defensible projections of future trends in crime, and especially from estimates of the effect that further reductions in the number of people in jail and prison might have on those trends. The authors of this study developed quantitative models—explained here in non-technical language—of the effects of various demographic and economic factors, as well as the imprisonment rate, on Florida’s past crime rates. They then used these models to project crime trends into the 2020s, both with and without the assumption of a substantial reduction in imprisonment.

New York: Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. 2021, 28pg

By Sakshi Bhardwaj and Daniel Tabak

This paper investigates the effect of losing welfare benefits on local household financial distress and crime. We estimate this effect using a quasi-experiment in which Indiana outsourced and automated the processing of TANF, food stamps, and Medicaid applications. The welfare automation policy was implemented in three waves prior to its cancellation in 2009, before reaching all counties. Using consumer credit panel data, we explore this variation to find that the Indiana welfare automation program, which reduced enrollment in SNAP and TANF enrollment, significantly increased the number of accounts in collections, collections balances, bankruptcy filings, and decreased credit scores. Using data from the Uniform Crime Reporting series, we find that welfare automation policy has also increased crime, primarily property crimes.

Unpublished paper, 2023.

By The U.S.National Institute of Justice

In NIJ’s new publication Desistance From Crime: Implications for Research, Policy, and Practice, experts explore these and other critical questions surrounding the process of individuals ceasing engagement in criminal activities, referred to as “desistance.” They discuss how to conceptualize and measure desistance and offer innovative ways of using desistance-focused approaches in criminal justice practice, policy, and research.

This collection of work takes important steps in describing how a desistance framework can move the field forward across key decision points in the criminal justice system. As a result, the field will be better positioned to meet the needs of stakeholders, improve individual outcomes, and effectively reduce crime and promote public safety for communities across the United States.

Washington, DC: U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2021. 234p.

By Georg Heiler, Tuan Pham, Jan Korbel, Johannes Wachs & Stefan Thurner

We use a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on criminal acts over 6 years in a European country to study specialization in criminal careers. We present a method to cluster crime categories by their relative co-occurrence within criminal careers, deriving a natural, data-based taxonomy of criminal specialization. Defining specialists as active criminals who stay within one category of offending behavior, we study their socio-demographic attributes, geographic range, and positions in their collaboration networks relative to their generalist counterparts. Compared to generalists, specialists tend to be older, are more likely to be women, operate within a smaller geographic range, and collaborate in smaller, more tightly-knit local networks. We observe that specialists are more intensely embedded in criminal networks, suggesting a potential source of self-reinforcing dynamics in criminal careers.

Scientific Reports 13, 17160 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43552-6

By Michael Zoorob, Daniel T. O'Brien

Crime is highly concentrated at places that lack capable place managers (i.e., landlords and their delegates). In response, numerous cities have instituted problem property interventions that pressure landowners to better manage properties suffering from decay, nuisance, or crime. This approach is distinctive in that it both targets a place and incentivizes those legally responsible to improve its management, yet little is known about the efficacy of such interventions. We assess the short- and long-term impacts of such interventions in Boston, Massachusetts, using matched difference-in-difference analyses. Problem property interventions reduced crime and disorder relative to comparable matched properties. They also led to property investment and landowner turnover, suggesting strengthened place management. In addition, drops in crime and disorder were observed at other properties on the same street, although not at other properties with the same owner throughout the city. This study, therefore, provides evidence that problem property interventions compel landowners to better manage the targeted property and that these effects have a diffusion of benefits on surrounding properties. The effect on place management, however, was limited to the target property and did not reliably generalize to the landowner's other holdings. This study reveals nuance in the ways that problem property interventions can benefit communities.

Criminology, Volume62, Issue1 February 2024 Pages 64-89

By Peter Leasure and Hunter M. Boehme

This study examined whether public perceptions of police traffic stops and searches varied when participants were randomly assigned to receive various traffic stop and search statistics derived from research. We utilized an experimental information provision survey sent to head of households in South Carolina with an associated email address. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of three conditions: 1) a condition where respondents were presented statistics on contraband hit rates (i.e., rate at which contraband is found during a stop), 2) a condition where respondents were presented statistics on racial disparities in traffic stops, or 3) the control condition. Results from roughly 4,600 respondents indicated that research on traffic stops and searches could impact public opinion regarding whether the police should conduct more stops and searches. Statistically significant differences were found with the contraband versus the racial disparity conditions and with the racial disparity versus control conditions. Looking at the overall probabilities (without regard to the p-values for the differences), respondents who received the racial disparity condition were the least likely to agree that police should conduct more traffic stops and searches, while respondents who received the contraband condition were most likely to agree that police should conduct more traffic stops and searches. However, it should be noted that probabilities for all conditions ranged from approximately 32% to 38%, meaning that most respondents did not agree that more traffic stops and searches should be conducted.

Drug Enforcement and Policy Center. February 2024, 20pg