PRISON POPULISM IN LATIN AMERICA STRATEGIC. Reviewing the Dynamics of Prison Population Growth

By Carlos Vilalta and Gustavo Fondevila 

Not much information can be found on the size and trends of the prison population in Latin America. Over the past few years, our knowledge base has started to increase. Now we know, with certainty, that prison populations have been growing much faster than the general population, and that their living conditions are extremely harsh. 3 Thus it should not surprise us when we often hear of deadly prison riots happening in countries like Brazil, Venezuela, and Mexico, as a consequence of overcrowding and poor living conditions. Although living conditions in prisons in the region are still appalling, rapid growth seems to have come to an end. Trend data suggests that the Latin American prison population rate has stabilized. The objective of this study is to offer a data driven review of the growth, trends, and the principle reasons behind the rapid expansion of the prison population in the region during the past two decades. A key factor appears to be  the rise of prison populism. We do not provide an argument for the recent decrease in the growth rate, it is too early to determine whether the recent slow-down in prison population growth is due to a regime shift in the time series, or the effect of random variation. Still, ceteris paribus, we provide a projection of the prison population rate for the region. This Strategic Note fills a gap in the literature. Our particular contribution consists of the compilation of quantitative data of the region´s prison population, with the purpose of providing a broad but novel overview of the rapid growth and challenges to a wide audience of researchers and practitioners worldwide. 

Brazil: Igarape Institute, 2019. 16p.