By Editor James J.F. Forest and Bart Schuurman

The first article by Deven Parekh, Amarnath Amarasingam, Lorne Dawson and Derek Ruths offers a detailed critique of Twitter data collection methods and propose suggestions for improving the collection of data in future research on terrorists use of social media. Then Ariel Koch examines the impact of Islamic State beheading videos among jihadists and other extremists. Next, Adesoji Adelaja, Abdullahi Labo and Eva Penar examine how the Nigerian public’s views about the root causes and objectives of Boko Haram differ from those of the government. And in our final article of this issue a team of researchers at the International Center for Study of Violent Extremism (ICSVE’s) report on their recent Facebook ad-campaign aimed at raising awareness about the realities of living under ISIS and protecting vulnerable potential recruits from considering joining.

Terrorism Research Initiative (TRI), headquartered in Vienna, Austria, and the Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA) of Leiden University, Campus The Hague. Vol.XII, Issue 3, June 2018. 189p.

By Nils Duquet and Dennis Vanden Auweele

Executive summary. The main findings of Project TARGET were that gun trafficking is a multifaceted phenomenon that predominantly impacts criminal and terrorist gun violence (rather than domestic violence or other sorts of disputes). Armed robbers and lower-level criminals generally acquire firearms to threaten or for the status they afford, and they are increasingly doing so through purchasing (converted) non-live-firing firearms. The predominant type today has become Turkish blank-firing weapons purchased in countries with lenient legislation regarding these weapons. There is also an influx of easy-to-convert Flobert guns being trafficked in(to) Europe and converted in transit or at their place of destination. Higher-level criminals have more access to firearms, including sometimes also military grade firearms, through the smuggling of conflict legacy weapons or the trafficking of reactivated firearms. While jihadi terrorists tend to acquire their firearms predominantly through criminal connections, rightwing terrorists more often tend to rely on legal purchases, firearm assembling and internet purchases. We noted that a proliferation of gun availability can lead to an arms race among criminals, increased rates of gun violence and general sentiments of insecurity among the population.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2021. 212p.

By Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California Davis

This series of slides presents an overview of firearm-related deaths in the U.S.

Davis, CA: Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California Davis, 2021. 14p.

By European Commission, Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry

This report presents the results of the evaluation study commissioned by Directorate General Enterprise and Industry with the aim of assessing the implementation of the Firearms Directive in all MS. The evaluation aims at providing the necessary input for the report that the European Commission shall, by the end of July 2015, “submit […] to the European Parliament and the Council on the situation resulting from the application of this Directive, accompanied, if appropriate, by amending proposals”. This evaluation is also included in the Commission's Regulatory Fitness and Performance Programme (REFIT), which aims at reviewing the entire stock of EU legislation to identify burdens, inconsistencies, gaps, overlaps and obsolete measures and to make, where necessary, proposals to follow-up on the findings of the review (COM(2013)685 and Annex). The evaluation study addresses five evaluation criteria identified in the Terms of Reference (ToR) that are: 1. Consistency of the implementation of the Directive’s provisions, of the interpretation of the key terms and an overall coherence of the Directive with other pieces of legislation dealing with weapons; 2. Relevance of such provisions with respect to the existing needs in the area of internal market functioning and EU citizens’ security; 3. Effectiveness in terms of the extent to which provisions have contributed to the achievement of set targets, i.e. their actual impacts; 4. Efficiency of procedures and obligations introduced by the Directive, namely if results have been achieved at reasonable costs; 5. Added value of EU intervention as opposed to national legislation and actions.

Brussels: Publications Office, 2014. 106p.

By Nils Duquet and Maarten Van Alstein

The Small Arms Survey … estimated civilian firearms ownership in Belgium as between 1.500.000 and 2.100.000 arms (of which 870.000 were said to be registered), an average of 17,2 firearms per 100 people. These estimates were based on a press communiqué of the Council of Ministers of Belgium (December 2005) and on articles in the Belgian press.1 Similar numbers also figured in the explanatory notes attached to the draft of a new Weapons Act which was tabled in the Belgian Federal Parliament in February 2006,2 and in a note published by the Groupe de Recherche et d’Information sur la Paix et la Sécurité (GRIP) in Brussels in June 2006, in the wake of the introduction of the new Belgian Weapons Act.3 However, although the estimate of 1.500.000 to 2.000.000 weapons became commonly used and widely quoted4 , it is not without its problems. Not least, the source and the method applied to arrive at this estimate remain unclear. Moreover, policy makers, stakeholders and the media do not consistently use this figure of 1.5 to 2 million guns. In some cases the figure is used to indicate the total number of guns (both legal and illegal), while in others it is quoted to refer to the number of illegal guns in circulation. Of course, because of their illegal nature, estimating the number of illegally held guns will always be a complicated exercise. In the course of a major research project undertaken by the Flemish Peace Institute on the trade, possession and use of firearms in Belgium, we were not able to find a satisfactory method, based on the available evidence, to calculate an estimate of the total number of privately owned guns in Belgium (legally plus illegally held firearms, the latter including firearms owned by criminals and guns irregularly held by citizens). The statistical information on which to base an adequate estimate is simply not available. For the moment, the reality is that nobody knows how many firearms are privately owned in Belgium.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2019. 23p.

By Nils Duquet

Every year in Europe around 1,150 people are shot dead with firearms. These deaths occur in various contexts, including the relational and criminal spheres. The little available research into the weapons used during these fatal crimes suggests that different types of firearms are used in different contexts.1 In this report we focus on the weapons that were used for one specific form of deadly firearms incidents, namely “public mass shootings”. These are shooting incidents in the (semi-)public space in which the perpetrator(s) use one or more firearms and during which several people are killed and injured. Under this umbrella term we find numerous types of shooting incidents, ranging from school shootings in which a frustrated pupil murders a number of classmates and/or teachers to terrorist attacks in which groups of perpetrators attempt to spread terror in coordinated attacks. A look at recent mass shootings shows that significant differences can be observed in terms of, for example, the locations where these shootings were carried out, the number of perpetrators, the motives of the perpetrator(s), the selection of the victims and the firearms used. This report analyses one specific aspect of such shooting incidents, namely the firearms that were used.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2016. 45p.

By Flemish Peace Institute

In recent years, policy attention to firearm violence in the European Union (EU) has increased greatly. A thorough insight into the problem is an important step in developing such a policy. How many firearms are circulating in the EU? How many deaths are caused by firearms? Is there a relationship between gun ownership and the number of violent deaths (homicides and suicides)? And what is the impact of firearms legislation? The European Commission has already said that ‘a lack of solid EU-wide statistics and intelligence hampers effective policy and operational responses’. The research of the Flemish Peace Institute offers a starting point to fill this need.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2019. 2p.

By Nils Duquet

In Europe, there were 23 public mass shootings between 2009 and 2018. They claimed the lives of a total of 341 people. That means an average of 2.3 mass shootings with a total of 34 casualties per year. Those shootings took place in 15 different European countries, including Belgium, with mass shootings at the Christmas market in Liège in December 2011 and the Jewish Museum in Brussels in May 2014. In its report “Armed to Kill”I , the Flemish Peace Institute investigated which types of firearms were used in the 23 identified mass shootings in Europe and how the perpetrators obtained those firearms

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2019. 7p.

By Matteo Dressler, Nils Duquet and Julia Eckelmann

Project DIVERT is an international research project to contribute to the fight against illegal firearms markets in Europe. To this end, the project has investigated various methods by which legal firearms are diverted and become illegal. Because most illicitly held firearms in the European Union have a legal history, generating a better intelligence picture on firearms diversion is critical. It can help better understand the original transition of weapons into the illegal cycle and develop effective tools to stop such spillovers. This report examines firearms diversion through non-regularisation. It is part of a three-part series exploring previously under-researched firearms diversion methods in the EU. Two additional studies deal with firearms diversion through theft and fraud. We define non-regularisation as: The act of not regularising the legal status of firearms, ammunition or firearm components, for example, by not asking for the necessary authorisation or registering them, after a change in legislation or another major event (e.g. armed conflict).

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2021. 120p.

By Quitterie de Labbey, Nils Duquet and Lore Smets

Project DIVERT is an international research project to contribute to the fight against illegal firearms markets in Europe. To this end, the project has investigated various methods by which legal firearms are diverted and become illegal. Because most illicitly held firearms in the European Union have a legal history, generating a better intelligence picture on firearms diversion is critical. It can help better understand the original transition of weapons into the illegal cycle and develop effective tools to stop such spillovers. This report examines firearms diversion through theft. It is part of a three-part series exploring previously under-researched diversion methods in the EU. Two additional studies deal with firearms diversion through fraud and non-regularization. We define the theft of firearms or ammunition as the deliberate act to take and remove firearms and/or ammunition of personal property with intent to deprive the legal owner from it.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2021. 132p.

By Quitterie de Labbey, Nils Duquet and Diederik Cop.

Project DIVERT has analysed various methods by which legal firearms are diverted from their legal status and become illegal. Because most firearms held illicitly in the European Union (EU) were produced legally, generating a better intelligence picture of firearm diversion is critical for the development of effective measures and tools to prevent diversion. Project DIVERT focused on three previously under-researched types of diversion in the EU: (1) the theft of firearms, ammunition and components, (2) firearms fraud, and (3) the non-regularization of firearms. The Flemish Peace Institute coordinated Project DIVERT and implemented it in partnership with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In addition, researchers from Arquebus Solutions contributed extensively to the first two research phases. Operational partners in this project were the Intelligence Centre Against Terrorism and Organized Crime (CITCO) of the Spanish Ministry of Interior Affairs, the Central Directorate for the Combat of Organised Crime (DJSOC) of the Belgian Federal Police and the EU Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation (Europol). Project DIVERT was co-funded by the Internal Security Fund – Police of DG Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission. In the first phase of the project, we conducted desk research which resulted in 28 country mappings that explored the scope, characteristics and dynamics of firearm diversion in all the EU Member States. In the second phase of the project, we deepened our understanding of fraud and analysed the policy initiatives geared toward preventing it through in-depth analyses of eight EU Member States. This report examines firearm diversion through fraud, which is defined as ‘the unlawful acquisition or possession of or trade in firearms or ammunition by tricking others and by intentionally concealing, omitting or perverting the truth’. Two complementary reports focus on firearm diversion through non-regularisation and theft. .

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2022. 128p.

By Nils Duquet and Maarten Van Alstein

On a regular basis, news stories appear in the media about public shootings where shooters use their guns to open fire and kill people in shopping malls or on school campuses. Mostly these stories deal with incidents in the United States. Over the last years, however, a number of European countries have experienced similar public shooting incidents. Notable cases were the shootings at Tuusula and Kauhajoki in Finland (2007 and 2008), the killings in Cumbria in the UK (2010), the Utøya attacks by Anders Breivik in Norway (2011), and the shootings at Alphen aan den Rijn in the Netherlands and Liège in Belgium in 2011. Public shootings draw a high level of media attention. Less striking in the public eye, but not less significant – not least in quantitative terms –, are the numbers of people in Europe killed by firearms in the context of gun-related crime or in domestic shootings.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2015. 83p.

By Alexandra T. Evans, Heather J. Williams

Recent demonstrations and violent attacks have highlighted the need for an improved understanding of the role of internet-based technologies in aiding and amplifying the spread of extremist ideologies. Since the early days of the internet, radical groups and movements across the ideological spectrum have demonstrated their intent and ability to harness virtual platforms to perform critical functions.

This Perspective, the second in a RAND Corporation series on online white-supremacist and violent misogynist material, provides a primer on how the internet influences the activities of radical groups and movements and how exposure to or consumption of extremist content online influences the behavior of internet users. After briefly discussing relevant terminology, the authors describe the role of the internet in facilitating five operational functions for radical groups and movements: (1) group financing; (2) networking and coordination; (3) recruitment and radicalization; (4) inter- and intra-group knowledge transfer; and (5) planning, coordination, and execution of harmful online and offline operations. The authors then examine how virtual interactions can facilitate or encourage users' adoption of extremist ideas and inspire or alter offline behavior. The Perspective concludes with a discussion of how the internet can be leveraged as a tool to counter extremism, and the authors provide suggestions for further research.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022. 48p.

By Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, Liisa Hiatt

Terrorism and ideologically inspired violence represent persistent and serious threats to U.S. national security. The January 6, 2021, attack at the U.S. Capitol and other recent events emphasize the need for more research to inform prevention and deradicalization strategies. In this report, the authors aim to characterize why and how individuals joined extremist organizations, as well as how some of them exited these groups. Semistructured interviews were conducted with former extremists and their family members, representing 32 unique stories of 24 white supremacists and eight Islamic extremists.

Exposure to propaganda on the internet, in music, and in books and literature was present in more than two-thirds of the sample. Although formal, top-down recruitment occurred for three Islamic extremists, the majority of white supremacists actively sought out participation in extremist organizations. Among the sample, 26 had exited the organizations; of those, six were still undergoing cognitive and emotional deradicalization. Among those who exited, 22 mentioned that a person or group intervened to help them by providing diverse cultural and demographic exposures, emotional support, financial stability, or domestic stability.

Interviewees also addressed such systemic issues as unemployment and the need for more-affordable and easily accessible mental health care. These interviews led to recommendations for both research and practice that emphasize the importance of incorporating the voices of those with personal experience and knowledge of ideological extremism into future research designs and efforts to prevent radicalization and promote deradicalization.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021. 134p.

By Heather J. Williams, Luke J. Matthews, Pauline Moore, Matthew A. DeNardo, James V. Marrone, Brian A. Jackson, William Marcellino, Todd C. Helmus

Racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE) and extremists (REMVEs) present some of the most pressing threats to the United States. REMVE also has been identified as the White identity terrorist movement (WITM). REMVEs are among the most lethal domestic violent extremists, and they are the most likely to commit mass-casualty attacks. These movements are characterized by a broad ideological orientation toward xenophobic, anti-Semitic, racist, and misogynistic sentiment.

For this report, the authors reviewed the relevant literature on REMVE networks and collected and analyzed social media data from six social networks (Twitter, Reddit, Gab, Ruqqus, Telegram, and Stormfront) to produce a global network map of the digital REMVE space. That network map evaluates each network's construction, connectivity, geographic location, references to prominent organizations, and proclivity to violence. The authors also reviewed ten countries' experiences with REMVE to sketch out an understanding of the REMVE space in these countries and how REMVEs in those countries relate to those in the United States.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2022. 184p.

By Todd C. Helmus, Hannah Jane Byrne, King Mallory

To support the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)'s efforts to counter extremism in its ranks, the authors considered how a terrorism prevention or countering violent extremism framework might address the issue. They offer intervention initiatives that DoD might consider adopting. They also review the terrorism prevention framework as it has been applied in the U.S. civilian sector and focus on initiatives that might be relevant and adaptable to the military context.

This review highlights broader evidence for such initiatives, places the initiatives in the context of the radicalization process and in the context of other such initiatives, and offers at least a cursory review of the evidence base for interventions.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2021. 20p.

By Daniel Koehler

Extreme right-wing violence and terrorism are a growing threat to Western societies. This form of political violence is also quite elusive and differs from others (e.g. jihadist violence) in some key characteristics. Since the September 11 attacks, policy makers, law enforcement and intelligence agencies as well as researchers have focused most of their attention on Islamic extremist violence and terrorism. This has led to an imbalance in the understanding of other threats, especially from the far-right, and adequate ways to counter it. This paper, using Germany as a main case study, argues that far-right violence has a potential risk of being misunderstood and under-classified, thus creating the perception among victims of that violence that democratic countries “are blind on the right side”. This erosion of trust in the rule of law and the monopoly of force is one goal of extreme right-wing terrorists. Specific recommendations to improve countering the threat posed by the far-right are avoiding double standards in dealing with political violence at all costs, swift and efficient appropriate legal actions against extreme right perpetrators of violence, an increase in funding for research about right-wing terrorism, a possible refinement of the legal definition of “terrorism” and a discussion about its relationship with “hate crimes”, as well as wide scale support for countering violent extremism (CVE) and deradicalisation programs targeting the far-right.

The Hague: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2019. 21p.

By Daniel Koehler

Right-wing violence and terrorism have slowly gained more academic and public attention in recent years, with an increase in anti-immigration and anti-government organised violence from the extreme right in most Western countries. Some evidence exists that right-wing extremists have attempted to infiltrate the military in their home countries to gain access to tactical training, weapons, and to recruit highly skilled new members. Research about the extent and impact of extreme right-wing links to the military is, however, scarce. In addition to the lack of insight into potential right-wing (or other forms of) extremism problems in the military, most armed forces have not developed effective countering violent extremism (CVE) tools. In this way, the incorporation of CVE in the military lags far behind the use of CVE in other aspects of counter-terrorism in the West. As the military, next to the police and intelligence, is a critical part of a country’s security infrastructure, it must also include specially designed mechanisms to protect it from infiltration and abuse from violent extremists and those planning terrorist activities. This Policy Brief will discuss available knowledge about extreme right-wing links to the military in Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States. It will conclude by formulating concrete recommendations for handling this potential threat.

The Hague: International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2019. 34p.

By The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Commission

For this Initial Report, the Commission emphasized two major priorities—what happened leading up to the shooting and the law enforcement response. Knowing the true and accurate facts about all the contributing variables leading up to the massacre of February 14 was critical for forming a body of knowledge about certain topics (for example active shooter policies) and enabled the Commission to have a baseline from which to make informed and deliberative recommendations. Further, this knowledge allowed the Commission to make findings that are necessary to drive change. The Commission’s effort is far from complete; all areas require further investigation and recommendations, which the Commission will continue to work on in 2019. This Initial Report establishes the facts and timeline of “what” occurred on February 14, 2018. The more complicated question of “how” it happened and how it became one of the largest school mass killing events in United States’ history is more difficult because of many varied contributing causes. The causes include Cruz’s mental and behavioral health issues, people not reporting warning signs or reporting signs that were not acted on by those to whom actionable information was reported, and how Cruz’s behavioral and discipline issues were addressed (or not addressed) by Broward County Public Schools. Also contributing, was the overall lack of adequate or effective physical site security and unenforced or non-existent security measures and policies at MSDHS, as well as the ineffective behavioral threat assessment process at MSDHS.

Tallahassee, FL: Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School Public Safety Commission 458p.

By The Investigative Committee

This is the interim report of the Investigative Committee on the Robb Elementary Shooting of the Texas House of Representatives. Conscious of the desire of the Uvalde community and the public at large to receive an accurate account of the tragedy at Robb Elementary School, the Committee has worked diligently and with care to issue this interim report of its factual findings. The Committee’s work is not complete. We do not have access to all material witnesses. Medical examiners have not yet issued any reports about their findings, and multiple other investigations remain ongoing. The Committee believes this interim report constitutes the most complete telling to date of the events of and leading to the May 24, 2022, tragedy. This Committee has prioritized factual accuracy, as will be evident from our attention to conducting our own interviews and documenting our sources of information. Still, based on the experiences of past mass-shooting events, we understand some aspects of these interim findings may be disputed or disproven in the future. The Committee issues this interim report now, believing the victims, their families, and the entire Uvalde community have already waited too long for answers and transparency.

Austin, TX: Texas House of Representatives, 2022. 82p.