By Laurie Caron, Frank Crispino and Cyril Muehlethaler

Tobacco smuggling remains a widespread illegal activity in Canada, associated with important social and economic impacts, and often linked to organized crime. This study explores the application of forensic profiling as an intelligence tool to support the analysis of contraband cigarette production and distribution. Physical and chemical manufacturing characteristics of seized contraband cigarette packs, provided by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), were observed and coded using macroscopic, microscopic, and spectroscopic techniques. Multivariate statistical analyses were then conducted to compare manufacturing characteristics between packs and identify potential links. The analyses highlighted links between cigarette packs and seizures based on shared manufacturing characteristics. The results and the identified groups were also compared with seizure data provided by the CBSA. The results demonstrate the relevance of forensic profiling to formulate hypotheses regarding shared production processes or supply networks. These hypotheses provide information that contributes to understanding tobacco smuggling and aim to examine how forensic intelligence can support law enforcement and measures to prevent and disrupt this criminal activity. A preliminary optimal procedure for applying forensic profiling in operational contexts targeting contraband tobacco was finally proposed. Despite limitations in the dataset creation that were beyond our control, this study represents a starting point for applying this scientific approach to tobacco smuggling

By Isabel Meciar, Cheneal Puljević, Alice Holland, Coral Gartner

Australian survey and seizure data suggest a growing illicit tobacco market. As an illicit product, accurately tracking trends in illicit tobacco growing, manufacture, and sales is challenging. We examined trends in Australian illicit tobacco-related crimes using a content analysis of news articles.

Aims and Methods

We analyzed Australian news articles identified in the Factiva database and government press releases describing Australian illicit tobacco-related crimes reported between January 2000 and December 2023. Sources were coded for crime type, location, product type, dollar value of seized products, methods of distribution or storage, agencies involved, and other crimes involved.

Results

We identified 447 crimes reported in 389 sources. The number of illicit tobacco-related crimes reported increased between 2000 and 2023. The most common crimes were possession of illicit tobacco (n = 196/43.7%) and smuggling (n = 187/41.8%), and the most common product type was “illicit cigarettes” (n = 197/44.1%). The most common distribution/storage method reported was via residential premises (n = 98/21.9%). One-hundred and twenty incidents involved other crimes such as financial crimes involving money laundering (n = 59/13.2%). Across all included news articles, the quantity of seized products totaled 827 529 307 cigarette sticks, 76 185 cartons, 668 687 packs, 239 hectares (of land growing tobacco plants), and 2 149 000 plants of illicit tobacco between 2000 and 2023. The median value (worth; AUD) of each seizure was $1 500 000 (range $43 to $67 000 000).

Conclusions

Australian media reporting on illicit tobacco-related crimes increased over the past two decades, particularly since 2018. These findings highlight a need for improved border detection measures, investment in enforcement, and other deterrent activities.

Implications

This media analysis complements trends identified in national survey data that indicate a growing illicit tobacco market in Australia since 2013 with a marked increase since 2018. While survey data suggests that the Australian tobacco tax policy, which has included regular large tax increases since 2010, has decreased consumer demand for tobacco overall, it may have also incentivized criminal networks to supply illicit tobacco products due to it being a “low risk” and “high reward” activity. Controlling the Australian illicit tobacco market should be a policy priority.

Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 26 October 2024, 8 pages