Quantifying Crime Deterrence Effect of Patrol Optimization through GPS Data

By Mami Kajita; Daisuke Murakami, Seiji Kajita, Georgia Ribeiro, Genilson Zeferino, and Claudio Beato  

Optimizing urban resources, such as ride-sharing and logistics, improve efficiency by reducing waiting times and costs. Similarly, effective allocation of security resources enhances crime deterrence effect. However, measuring the net impact of security policy campaigns remains challenging due to the influence of various external factors. This study introduces a method using high-resolution GPS data from patrol activities to measure crime deterrence effects. We examined the impact of optimized patrol routes on crime prediction in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, over two months, observing a 68.5% reduction in crime compared to the previous period. Analysis of the GPS data revealed a spatial propagation of the deterrent effect to areas distant from the patrol locations. Our findings indicate that unique spatial-temporal patterns of the deterrent effects detected through sensor technology can be reduced into its net impact, potentially helping decision-makers to choose more informed options in security policies.

Unpublished paper. 2024, 17pg