By Yvon Dandurand Abeni Steegstra Vivienne Chin

This report presents the results of a review of the crime situation and a gap analysis on crime prevention and response interventions in the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM) countries. The main objective of the review is to inform discussions and decisions on the role that Canada can play to help address, at the national and regional levels, the increasing crime levels in the Caribbean. The report offers recommendations in relation to crime prevention interventions to address the risk factors associated with criminal behaviour as well as interventions to respond to criminal activities and reduce future crime through deterrence and offender rehabilitation and reintegration. The review was conducted between October 15, 2023, and March 30, 2024. It covers all CARICOM countries except Haiti. The review relied on: 1. Existing crime data to identify crime rates and crime trends in the CARICOM countries, including violent crime, youth crime, gender-based crimes, and various threats related to organized transnational crime. 2. Existing national victimization data and public perceptions of crime and public safety data. 3. Available information and data on the effectiveness of law enforcement and criminal justice responses to crime and key crime prevention initiatives in CARICOM countries. 4. Public domain information on existing mechanisms to address security governance and collaboration within the region. 5. Public domain information on the assistance provided by Canada and other donors and international agencies in the areas of public safety, criminal justice reform and capacity building, and crime prevention, and on their development plans. 6. Key informant interviews with 93 stakeholders of the region about ongoing criminal justice and crime prevention initiatives, at the national and regional levels, and perceived priorities and opportunities for further initiatives. 7. Consultations and document review concerning existing programming mechanisms in Canada and Canada’s policy engagement at the various missions. Within the scope of the project, the review team considered several specific questions related to perceived gaps in crime prevention and response interventions in CARICOM. It also considered key crime prevention and response interventions being planned or implemented in CARICOM countries. Increased violence in CARICOM countries has been attributed to several factors, including structurally weak social protection, the effects of the COVID-19 epidemic, gang competition and fragmentation, changes in the illicit drug market, the availability of firearms, and a relatively high level of impunity for violent crimes. The dramatic increase in recent years in homicidal violence in many Caribbean countries is largely due to the intense competition between gangs over drug markets. However, there is great intraregional variance in the prevalence of violent crime. Several factors contribute to the proliferation of gangs and gang violence. The lack of economic opportunities, low social cohesion, and weak community resilience are often cited as key drivers of local gang growth. So is transnational organized crime and access to profitable illicit markets. The analysis identified several gaps in three main areas: (i) measures to strengthen the criminal justice system’s responses to crime and deter or reduce it; (ii) measures to control gang violence, transnational organized crime, and emerging crimes; and (iii) measures to prevent violence and crime, including at the school and community levels and measures to prevent recidivism and reintegrate offenders. 

Vancouver, BC:  International Centre for Criminal Law Reform 2024. 197p.

By Mami Kajita; Daisuke Murakami, Seiji Kajita, Georgia Ribeiro, Genilson Zeferino, and Claudio Beato  

Optimizing urban resources, such as ride-sharing and logistics, improve efficiency by reducing waiting times and costs. Similarly, effective allocation of security resources enhances crime deterrence effect. However, measuring the net impact of security policy campaigns remains challenging due to the influence of various external factors. This study introduces a method using high-resolution GPS data from patrol activities to measure crime deterrence effects. We examined the impact of optimized patrol routes on crime prediction in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, over two months, observing a 68.5% reduction in crime compared to the previous period. Analysis of the GPS data revealed a spatial propagation of the deterrent effect to areas distant from the patrol locations. Our findings indicate that unique spatial-temporal patterns of the deterrent effects detected through sensor technology can be reduced into its net impact, potentially helping decision-makers to choose more informed options in security policies.

Unpublished paper. 2024, 17pg

By Rafael A. Mangual

  After a long period of continuous violent-crime declines throughout the U.S.—spanning from the mid-1990s through the early 2010s—many American cities are now seeing significant increases in violence. Nationally, in 2015 and 2016, murders rose nearly 11% and 8%, respectively. The national homicide rate declined slightly in 2017 and 2018, before ticking upward in 2019. In 2020, the nation saw its largest single-year spike in homicides in at least 100 years—which was followed by another increase in murders in 2021, according to CDC data and FBI estimates. In the last few years, a number of cities have seen murders hit an all-time high. In addition to homicides, the risk of other types of violent victimizations rose significantly, as well. While various analyses estimated a slight decline in homicides for the country in 2022, many American cities still find themselves dealing with levels of violence far higher than they were a decade ago. While violent crime—particularly murder—is the most serious due in large part to its social costs, there have also been worrying increases in crimes such as retail theft, carjacking, and auto theft, as well as in other visible signs of disorder in public spaces (from open-air drug use and public urination to illegal street racing and large-scale looting and riots). Although several contributing factors are likely, this general deterioration in public safety and order was unquestionably preceded and accompanied by a virtually unidirectional shift toward leniency and away from accountability in the policing, prosecutorial, and criminal-justice policy spaces. That shift is evidenced by, among other things, three major trends in enforcement: • A 25% decline in the number of those imprisoned during 2011–2212 • A 15% decline in the number of those held in jail during 2010–211 • A 26% decline in the number of arrests effected by law-enforcement officers during 2009–1914 Notable contributing factors to the decline in enforcement include: • A sharp uptick in public scrutiny and interventions—in the form of investigations and legal action taken by state attorneys general and the federal Department of Justice—against local law-enforcement agencies • The worsening of an ongoing police recruitment and retention crisis, particularly in large urban departments • The electoral success of the so-called progressive prosecutor movement, which, by 2022, had won seats in 75 jurisdictions, representing more than 72 million U.S. residents • Perhaps most important, the adoption of a slew of criminal-justice and policing reform measures at all levels of government Those who are skeptical of the criminal-justice reform movement have devoted most of their efforts to arguing against the movement’s excesses and explaining why it would be unwise to enact certain measures. Less effort has been devoted to the extremely important task of articulating a positive agenda for regaining what has been lost on the safety and order front. This paper seeks to add to that positive agenda for safety by proposing three model policies that, if adopted, would help, directly and indirectly, stem the tide of rising crime and violence, primarily by maximizing the benefits that attend the incapacitation of serious criminals (especially repeat offenders) and by encouraging the collection and public reporting of data that can inform the public about the downside risks that are glossed over by decarceration and depolicing activists ....

New York: Manhattan Institute. 2023, 19pg