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Posts tagged crime statistics
Health, safety, and socioeconomic impacts of cannabis liberalization laws: An evidence and gap map

Eric L. Sevigny, Jared Greathouse, Danye N. Medhin

Background. Globally, cannabis laws and regulations are rapidly changing. Countries are increasingly permitting access to cannabis under various decriminalization, medicalization, and legalization laws. With strong economic, public health, and social justice incentives driving these domestic cannabis policy reforms, liberalization trends are bound to continue. However, despite a large and growing body of interdisciplinary research addressing the policy-relevant health, safety, and socioeconomic consequences of cannabis liberalization, there is a lack of robust primary and systematic research that comprehensively investigates the consequences of these reforms.

Objectives. This evidence and gap map (EGM) summarizes the empirical evidence on cannabis liberalization policies. Primary objectives were to develop a conceptual framework linking cannabis liberalization policies to relevant outcomes, descriptively summarize the empirical evidence, and identify areas of evidence concentration and gaps.

Search Methods. We comprehensively searched for eligible English-language empirical studies published across 23 academic databases and 11 gray literature sources through August 2020. Additions to the pool of potentially eligible studies from supplemental sources were made through November 2020.

Selection Criteria. The conceptual framework for this EGM draws upon a legal epidemiological perspective highlighting the causal effects of law and policy on population-level outcomes. Eligible interventions include policies that create or expand access to a legal or decriminalized supply of cannabis: comprehensive medical cannabis laws (MCLs), limited medical cannabidiol laws (CBDLs), recreational cannabis laws (RCLs), industrial hemp laws (IHLs), and decriminalization of cultivations laws (DCLs). Eligible outcomes include intermediate responses (i.e., attitudes/behaviors and markets/environments) and longer-term consequences (health, safety, and socioeconomic outcomes) of these laws.

Data Collection and Analysis. Both dual screening and dual data extraction were performed with third person deconfliction. Primary studies were appraised using the Maryland Scientific Methods Scale and systematic reviews were assessed using AMSTAR 2.

Main Results. The EGM includes 447 studies, comprising 438 primary studies and nine systematic reviews. Most research derives from the United States, with little research from other countries. By far, most cannabis liberalization research focuses on the effects of MCLs and RCLs. Studies targeting other laws—including CBDLs, IHLs, and DCLs—are relatively rare. Of the 113 distinct outcomes we documented, cannabis use was the single most frequently investigated. More than half these outcomes were addressed by three or fewer studies, highlighting substantial evidence gaps in the literature. The systematic evidence base is relatively small, comprising just seven completed reviews on cannabis use (3), opioid-related harms (3), and alcohol-related outcomes (1). Moreover, we have limited confidence in the reviews, as five were appraised as minimal quality and two as low quality.

Authors’ Conclusions. More primary and systematic research is needed to better understand the effects of cannabis liberalization laws on longer-term—and arguably more salient—health, safety, and socioeconomic outcomes. Since most research concerns MCLs and RCLs, there is a critical need for research on the societal impacts of industrial hemp production, medical CBD products, and decriminalized cannabis cultivation. Future research should also prioritize understanding the heterogeneous effects of these laws given differences in specific provisions and implementation across jurisdictions

Systematic Reviews, vol. 19(4), 2023.

Measuring the Impact of the State of Emergency on Crime Trends in Japan: A Panel data Analysis

By Takahito Shimada, Ai Suzuki and Mamoru Aremiya

Background: City-specific temporal analysis has been commonly used to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related behavioural regulation policies on crime. However, these previous studies fail to consider differences in the intensity of intervention among cities and the impact of these behavioural regulation policies on crime trends nationwide. This study performs panel data analyses to examine how the declaration of a state of emergency (SoE) affected ambient population and crime in Japan, taking advantage of the fact that the SoE was implemented at different times in different prefectures. Methods: The current study uses two sets of panel data of 47 prefectures for 22 weeks from February to July 2020: (1) the data on ambient population in five types of locations provided by the Google Mobility Reports, and (2) official crime data of six types of crime: residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft of/from vehicle, bicycle theft, sexual assault, and violence and injury. Firstly, an ordinary least squares regression analysis was performed to examine the impact of the SoE on the ambient population. Then a negative binomial model with fixed effects was adopted to examine the effect of the ambient population on the crime trends. Findings: The SoE declaration was found to increase the ambient population in 'residential', and decrease that in other settings including 'workplaces', 'transit stations', and 'retail and recreation' in targeted prefectures. Spill-over effects of the SoE were observed on the ambient population of non-SoE prefectures. The ambient population have impacted five out of the six types of crime examined, except for sexual assault. After controlling for the ambient population, we observed an increase in commercial burglary and theft of/from the vehicle in all prefectures during the SoE weeks, compared to the weeks when the SoE was not declared. Conclusions: The declaration of the SoE during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the ambient population in the SoE-prefectures, resulting the changes in crime levels as well. In addition, the implementation of the SoE in specific prefectures was found to have a contextual impact on national-level crime trends. Furthermore, the implementation of the SoE caused changes in some crime types that could not be explained by the changes in the ambient population, suggesting that the implementation of the SoE affected offenders' decision-making. It is also worth noting that the changes in ambient population and crime trends during the pandemic were observed in Japan where the behavioural regulation policy without law enforcement was introduced.

Crime Science 2023 12:13

Technologies of Crime Prediction: The Reception of Algorithms in Policing and Criminal Courts

By Sarah Brayne and Angele Christin

The number of predictive technologies used in the U.S. criminal justice system is on the rise. Yet there is little research to date on the reception of algorithms in criminal justice institutions. We draw on ethnographic fieldwork conducted within a large urban police department and a midsized criminal court to assess the impact of predictive technologies at different stages of the criminal justice process. We first show that similar arguments are mobilized to justify the adoption of predictive algorithms in law enforcement and criminal courts. In both cases, algorithms are described as more objective and efficient than humans’ discretionary judgment. We then study how predictive algorithms are used, documenting similar processes of professional resistance among law enforcement and legal professionals. In both cases, resentment toward predictive algorithms is fueled by fears of deskilling and heightened managerial surveillance. Two practical strategies of resistance emerge: footdragging and data obfuscation. We conclude by discussing how predictive technologies do not replace, but rather displace discretion to less visible—and therefore less accountable— areas within organizations, a shift which has important implications for inequality and the administration of justice in the age of big data.

Social Problems, Volume 68, Issue 3, August 2021, Pages 608–624,

COVID-19 Restrictions, Pub Closures, and Crime in Oslo, Norway

By Manne Gerell, Annica Allvin, Michael Frith & Torbjørn Skardhamar

Alcohol consumption and crime are closely linked and there is often more crime near pubs and bars. Few studies have considered the impact of restricting access to pubs or bars on crime, and the present study aims to provide more insight into this by using the restrictions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. In Oslo, Norway, alcohol serving was banned twice during 2020, and at other times during the year, restrictions were placed on how late it could be served. In the present paper, these restrictions are analysed, alongside more general COVID-19 restrictions, to assess their association with crime. To identify these, we employ negative binomial regression models of daily crime counts for nine types of crime adjusted for the day of the week, the week of the year, and the year itself. This is in addition to the presence, or absence, of alcohol-related restrictions and more general COVID-19 restrictions. The findings suggest that both, general restrictions and bans on serving alcohol, reduced crime, although not universally across all crime types and times of the day. When pubs are ordered not to sell alcohol after midnight there appears to be an unexpected increase in crime.

Nordic Journal of Criminology. 2022, 23 (2), 136-155, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/2578983X.2022.2100966

Economic Causes Of Theft In 25 OECD Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

By Özlem Dündar

There are many reasons for crime, including biological, psychological, economic, and social. The reasons for the crime may vary by the types of crime. While some types of crimes are mostly committed for economic reasons, many factors other than economic factors can be predominantly influential in committing some types of crimes. It is essential to investigate the economic causes of crime types. Because, there may be economic reasons on the basis of crimes stemming from psychological and sociological reasons. In this study context, the economic reasons for theft crime which is mostly committed for economic reasons, were investigated by the System Generalized Moments Method (GMM) for selected countries (25 OECD countries) that are members of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation. While determining the OECD member countries, the data set of all the variables (unemployment, Gini coefficient as an indicator of income inequality, consumer price index as an indicator of inflation, social expenditures, and population) included in the analysis was examined, and a standard analysis period (2013-2018) was determined according to these data. Thus, the effect of these variables on theft crime was investigated for the period 2013-2018. In the literature, economic variables were mostly used in the studies on the subject, but there were not many studies investigating the effect of the social expenditure variable on theft crime. For this reason, it is considered that the study will contribute to the literature. According to the system GMM analysis results, while unemployment, inflation rate (consumer price index), and the Gini coefficient positively affect theft crime, social expenditures and population variables show no effect.

Unpublished paper, 2022. 23p.

Operation Burglary Countdown: Evaluation Study Final Report

By Rick Cummings

Operation Burglary Countdown is an innovative community-based crime reduction program operating in two pilot areas, Bentley and Morley. A comprehensive and independent evaluation study has shown that the model of integrating central and local resources through coordinated police and community activities has been well implemented and generated considerable community support. During 12 months of operation, the program has demonstrated its effectiveness in targeted hotspots by reducing residential burglary in Bentley and the surrounding area by over 40%, saving the community an estimated $700,000. Its lack of significant impact in Morley indicates it is best introduced only in identified hotspots

Perth: Office of Crime Prevention, Government of Western Australia, 2005. 65p.

Re-examining The Crime Drop

By Stephen Farrell

The crime drop is one of the most important puzzles in contemporary criminology: since the early-1990s many countries appear to exhibit a pronounced decline in crime rates. While there have been many studies on the topic, this book argues that the current crime drop literature relies too heavily on a single methodological approach, and in turn, provides a new method for examining the falling rates of crime, based on ideas from political science and comparative historical social science. Farrall’s original new research forwards an understanding of trends in crime and responses to them by questioning the received theoretical assumptions. The book therefore encourages a ‘deepening’ in the nature of the sorts of studies which have been undertaken so far.

Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. 116p.

The Crime Drop in America. Rev. ed.

By Alfred Blumstein and Joel Wallman

Violent crime in America shot up sharply in the mid-1980s and continued to climb until 1991, after which something unprecedented occurred. The crime level declined to a level not seen since the 1960s. This revised edition of The Crime Drop in America focuses first on the dramatic drop in crime rates in America in the 1990s, and then, in a new epilogue, on the patterns since 2000. The separate chapters written by distinguished experts cover the many factors affecting crime rates: policing, incarceration, drug markets, gun control, economics, and demographics. Detailed analyses emphasize the mutual effects of changes in crack markets, a major focus of youth violence, and the drop in rates of violence following decline in demand for crack. The contrasts between the crime-drop period of the 1990s and the period since 2000 are explored in the new epilogue, which also reviews major new developments in thinking about the causes and control of crime.

Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006. 375p.

Modernizing Crime Statistics: Report 2: New Systems for Measuring Crime.

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

To derive statistics about crime – to estimate its levels and trends, assess its costs to and impacts on society, and inform law enforcement approaches to prevent it - a conceptual framework for defining and thinking about crime is virtually a prerequisite. Developing and maintaining such a framework is no easy task, because the mechanics of crime are ever evolving and shifting: tied to shifts and development in technology, society, and legislation.

Interest in understanding crime surged in the 1920s, which proved to be a pivotal decade for the collection of nationwide crime statistics. Now established as a permanent agency, the Census Bureau commissioned the drafting of a manual for preparing crime statistics—intended for use by the police, corrections departments, and courts alike. The new manual sought to solve a perennial problem by suggesting a standard taxonomy of crime. Shortly after the Census Bureau issued its manual, the International Association of Chiefs of Police in convention adopted a resolution to create a Committee on Uniform Crime Records —to begin the process of describing what a national system of data on crimes known to the police might look like.

Report 1 performed a comprehensive reassessment of what is meant by crime in U.S. crime statistics and recommends a new classification of crime to organize measurement efforts. This second report examines methodological and implementation issues and presents a conceptual blueprint for modernizing crime statistics.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2018. 280p.

Modernizing Crime Statistics: Report 1: Defining and Classifying Crime.

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

To derive statistics about crime – to estimate its levels and trends, assess its costs to and impacts on society, and inform law enforcement approaches to prevent it – a conceptual framework for defining and thinking about crime is virtually a prerequisite. Developing and maintaining such a framework is no easy task, because the mechanics of crime are ever evolving and shifting: tied to shifts and development in technology, society, and legislation.

Interest in understanding crime surged in the 1920s, which proved to be a pivotal decade for the collection of nationwide crime statistics. Now established as a permanent agency, the Census Bureau commissioned the drafting of a manual for preparing crime statistics—intended for use by the police, corrections departments, and courts alike. The new manual sought to solve a perennial problem by suggesting a standard taxonomy of crime. Shortly after the Census Bureau issued its manual, the International Association of Chiefs of Police in convention adopted a resolution to create a Committee on Uniform Crime Records —to begin the process of describing what a national system of data on crimes known to the police might look like.

The key distinction between the rigorous classification proposed in this report and the “classifications” that have come before in U.S. crime statistics is that it is intended to partition the entirety of behaviors that could be considered criminal offenses into mutually exclusive categories. Modernizing Crime Statistics: Report 1: Defining and Classifying Crime assesses and makes recommendations for the development of a modern set of crime measures in the United States and the best means for obtaining them. This first report develops a new classification of crime by weighing various perspectives on how crime should be defined and organized with the needs and demands of the full array of crime data users and stakeholders.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2016. 286p.

Religion and Crime: Theory, Research, and Practice

Edited by Kent R. Kerley.

The scientific study of religion is a rather recent development in colleges and universities in the United States and in other nations. Beginning in the 1960s, researchers from many social science backgrounds began conducting data-driven studies of the extent to which religiosity is related to crime, deviance, and delinquency. Since the 1980s, social scientists have also studied the nature, extent, practice, and impact of faith and faith-based programs in prisons and other correctional contexts. This volume contains the most contemporary and cutting-edge research on religion and crime, which includes data-driven (quantitative and qualitative), conceptual, review, and policy oriented papers.

Basel: MDPI Books, 2018. 274p.

National Reconviction Statistics and Studies in Europe

Edited by Hans-Jörg Albrecht, Jörg-Martin Jehle.

Nationale Rückfallstatistiken und -untersuchungen in Europa. Recidivism belongs to the main categories of criminology, crime policy and criminal justice. If the target of preventing offenders from reoffending is taken seriously crime policy should be measured by success of certain penal sanctions in terms of relapses. Also institutions that deal directly with crime and offenders need to get basic information on the consequences of their actions; particularly general knowledge about offender groups at risk of reoffending. All these are reasons why representative recidivism studies are needed. Meanwhile a lot of European countries gather systematic and comprehensive information on recidivism, periodically and on a national level. This volume presents an exemplary collection of such endeavors: Austria, Estonia, France, Germany, Switzerland and a comparative study of England and Wales, the Netherlands and Scotland.

Universitätsverlag Göttingen 2014, 249p.

European Sourcebook of Crime and Criminal Justice Statistics – 2021

Edited by Marceli Aebi, et al..

Sixth Edition. This is the sixth edition of a data collection initiative that started in 1993 under the umbrella of the Council of Europe and has been continued since 2000 by an international group of experts. These experts also act as regional coordinators of a network of national correspondents whose contribution has been decisive in collecting and validating data on a variety of subjects from 42 countries. The Sourcebook is composed of six chapters. The first five cover the current main types of national crime and criminal justice statistics – police, prosecution, conviction, prison, and probation statistics – for the years 2011 to 2016, providing detailed analysis for 2015. The sixth chapter covers national victimization surveys, providing rates for the main indicators every five years from 1990 to 2015. As with every new edition of the Sourcebook, the group has tried to improve data quality as well as comparability and, where appropriate, increase the scope of data collection. This new edition will continue to promote comparative research throughout Europe and make European experiences and data available worldwide.

Gottinggen, GER: Göttingen University Press, 2021. 502p.