By Takahito Shimada, Ai Suzuki and Mamoru Aremiya

Background: City-specific temporal analysis has been commonly used to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related behavioural regulation policies on crime. However, these previous studies fail to consider differences in the intensity of intervention among cities and the impact of these behavioural regulation policies on crime trends nationwide. This study performs panel data analyses to examine how the declaration of a state of emergency (SoE) affected ambient population and crime in Japan, taking advantage of the fact that the SoE was implemented at different times in different prefectures. Methods: The current study uses two sets of panel data of 47 prefectures for 22 weeks from February to July 2020: (1) the data on ambient population in five types of locations provided by the Google Mobility Reports, and (2) official crime data of six types of crime: residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft of/from vehicle, bicycle theft, sexual assault, and violence and injury. Firstly, an ordinary least squares regression analysis was performed to examine the impact of the SoE on the ambient population. Then a negative binomial model with fixed effects was adopted to examine the effect of the ambient population on the crime trends. Findings: The SoE declaration was found to increase the ambient population in 'residential', and decrease that in other settings including 'workplaces', 'transit stations', and 'retail and recreation' in targeted prefectures. Spill-over effects of the SoE were observed on the ambient population of non-SoE prefectures. The ambient population have impacted five out of the six types of crime examined, except for sexual assault. After controlling for the ambient population, we observed an increase in commercial burglary and theft of/from the vehicle in all prefectures during the SoE weeks, compared to the weeks when the SoE was not declared. Conclusions: The declaration of the SoE during the COVID-19 pandemic changed the ambient population in the SoE-prefectures, resulting the changes in crime levels as well. In addition, the implementation of the SoE in specific prefectures was found to have a contextual impact on national-level crime trends. Furthermore, the implementation of the SoE caused changes in some crime types that could not be explained by the changes in the ambient population, suggesting that the implementation of the SoE affected offenders' decision-making. It is also worth noting that the changes in ambient population and crime trends during the pandemic were observed in Japan where the behavioural regulation policy without law enforcement was introduced.

Crime Science 2023 12:13

By Richard Bade, Bradley S. Simpson, Maulik Ghetia, Lynn Nguyen, Jason M. White, Cobus Gerber

Aim: To assess the effects of social distancing and social isolation policies triggered by COVID-19 on alcohol consumption using wastewater analysis in Adelaide, South Australia.

Design: Longitudinal quantitative analysis of influent wastewater data for alcohol concentration.

Setting: Adelaide, South Australia.

Participants: Wastewater catchment area representative of 1.1 million inhabitants.

Measurements: Twenty-four hour composite influent wastewater samples were collected from four wastewater treatment plants in Adelaide, South Australia for 7 consecutive days (Wednesday–Tuesday) every 2 months from April 2016–April 2020. The alcohol metabolite ethyl sulfate was measured in samples using chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Data were population-weighted adjusted with consumption expressed as standard drinks/day/1000 people. Weekly consumption and weekend to mid-week consumption ratios were analysed to identify changes in weekday alcohol use pattern.

Findings: Estimated weekend alcohol consumption was significantly lower (698 standard drinks/day/1000 people) after self-isolation measures were enforced in April 2020 compared with the preceding sampling period in February 2020 (1047 standard drinks/day/1000 people), P < 0.05. Weekend to midweek consumption ratio was 12% lower than the average ratio compared with all previous sampling periods. April 2020 recorded the lowest alcohol consumption relative to April in previous years, dating back to 2016.

Conclusions: Wastewater analysis suggests that introduction of social distancing and isolation policies triggered by COVID-19 in Adelaide, South Australia, was associated with a decrease in population-level weekend alcohol consumption.

Addiction, Volume116, Issue6. June 2021. Pages 1600-1605

By Manne Gerell, Annica Allvin, Michael Frith & Torbjørn Skardhamar

Alcohol consumption and crime are closely linked and there is often more crime near pubs and bars. Few studies have considered the impact of restricting access to pubs or bars on crime, and the present study aims to provide more insight into this by using the restrictions to combat the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment. In Oslo, Norway, alcohol serving was banned twice during 2020, and at other times during the year, restrictions were placed on how late it could be served. In the present paper, these restrictions are analysed, alongside more general COVID-19 restrictions, to assess their association with crime. To identify these, we employ negative binomial regression models of daily crime counts for nine types of crime adjusted for the day of the week, the week of the year, and the year itself. This is in addition to the presence, or absence, of alcohol-related restrictions and more general COVID-19 restrictions. The findings suggest that both, general restrictions and bans on serving alcohol, reduced crime, although not universally across all crime types and times of the day. When pubs are ordered not to sell alcohol after midnight there appears to be an unexpected increase in crime.

Nordic Journal of Criminology. 2022, 23 (2), 136-155, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/2578983X.2022.2100966

By International Crisis Group

What’s new? The COVID-19 pandemic had an immediate impact on organised crime across Mexico and Central America’s northern countries as lockdowns slowed movement of people and goods. But criminal groups swiftly adapted to the new normal, using it to tighten or expand their control over people and territory. Why does it matter? The region’s criminal groups, many acting in collusion with rogue state actors, are largely responsible for some of the world’s highest murder rates and wield asphyxiating power in an increasing number of communities. With state budgets under huge strain, official responses are set to remain lacklustre. What should be done? Governments should combine policing to contain and deter crime with increased support to the most insecure areas and vulnerable populations. Rather than reverting to heavy-handed tactics, they should invest in programs that reduce impunity and create economic alternatives for at-risk young people, potentially with the help of COVID-19 emergency funds.

Brussels: International Crisis Group, 2020. 37p.