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CRIMINOLOGY

NATURE OR CRIME-HISTORY-CAUSES-STATISTICS

Paths to Decarceration: Enhancing Community Safety and Justice

By Aaron Chalfin and Brittany Street

This paper reviews and distills a wide array of recent social science literature and offers an evidence-based vision for how public safety can be maintained while relying less on the use of incarceration. We offer the following lessons from the literature. First, while interventions that increase economic opportunities have been shown to be effective in reducing criminal behavior, particularly income generating crime, interventions which change how people think appear to be even more effective at reducing the types of crimes that most frequently lead to incarceration. Second, a wide variety of investments targeted towards children in disadvantaged neighborhoods appear to be effective and likely pay for themselves over time. Third, while there is a natural concern that diverting criminal defendants from traditional prosecution will erode the deterrence value of criminal sanctions, the evidence suggests that for first-time and younger offenders, individuals who have been diverted – either through a formal program or informally via “non-prosecution” – tend to be less likely to be rearrested in the future. Fourth, the evidence suggests that law enforcement can play an important role in reducing the use of incarceration when police are visible and engage in high-value activities that deter crime or focus their arrest powers more intensively on violent and/or high-volume offenders; in doing so, they have the ability to reduce crime through deterrence and focused incapacitation without increasing the footprint of the justice system. Finally, there is potential to meaningfully reduce incarceration levels through sentencing reforms without compromising public safety – so long as the reforms are structured in such a way as to target the least criminally productive offenders, while retaining in custody those offenders who are most likely to commit the costliest offenses or who are likeliest to offend in high volumes.

Institute for the Quantitative Study of Inclusion, Diversity, and Equity,, 2023. 69p

Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City

By Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker

This paper offers experimental evidence that crime can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but surprisingly understudied feature of the urban landscape – street lighting – and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary streetlights were randomly allocated to public housing developments from March through August 2016. We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in crime. After accounting for potential spatial spillovers, we find that the provision of street lights led, at a minimum, to a 36 percent reduction in nighttime outdoor index crimes.

NBER Working Paper No. 25798 Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019 45p.

A Qualitative Evaluation of a Fentanyl Patch Safer Supply Program in Vancouver, Canada

By Alexa Norton, Andrew Ivsins, Elizabeth Holliday, Christy Sutherland, Thomas Kerr, Mary Clare Kennedy

Background: The ongoing overdose crisis in Canada has prompted efforts to increase access to a “safer supply” of prescribed alternatives to the unregulated drug supply. While safer supply programs predominantly distribute hydromorphone tablets, the Safer Alternatives for Emergency Response (SAFER) program in Vancouver, Canada offers a range of prescribed alternatives, including fentanyl patches. However, little is known about the effectiveness of fentanyl patches as safer supply. Drawing on the perspectives and experiences of program participants, we sought to qualitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the SAFER fentanyl patch program in meeting its intended aims, including reducing risk of overdose by decreasing reliance on the unregulated drug supply. Methods: As part of a larger mixed-methods evaluation of SAFER, semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 17 fentanyl patch program participants between February 2022 and April 2023. Thematic analysis of interview data focused on program engagement, experiences, impacts, and challenges. Results: The flexible program structure, including lack of need for daily dispensation, the extended missed dose protocol, and community pharmacy patch distribution fostered engagement and enhanced autonomy. Improved management of withdrawal symptoms and cravings due to steady transdermal dosing led to reduced unregulated drug use and overdose risk. Participants also experienced economic benefits and improvements in overall health and quality of life. However, skin irritation and patch adhesion issues were key barriers to program retention. Conclusion: Our findings demonstrate the value of including fentanyl patch safer supply in the substance use continuum of care and offer insights for innovations in delivery of this intervention.

International Journal of Drug Policy Volume 131, September 2024, 104547

Rise of Online Antisemitism in Arabic Six Months Post October 7 Narrative Analysis and Call to Action

By VERED ANDRE’EV, OMAR MOHAMMED, LARA PORTNOY

Often referred to as the “world’s oldest hatred”, antisemitism, Jew-hatred, or Judeophobia has led to mass expulsions, pogroms, massacres, and the largest genocide in human history – the Holocaust. Hatred against the Jewish people can be traced across history and geography, evolving with global events, trends, and local cultures. Today, antisemitism is experiencing a worldwide revival, with the events of October 7th, 2023, and the resulting Israel-Hamas war serving as an impetus to major spikes in hateful rhetoric and violent action. Antisemitic incidents were already at historic highs; they have increased further. Antisemitism is an issue of serious concern that requires public attention and policy response. As stated in November 2022 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), “antisemitic incidents and hate crimes violate fundamental rights, especially the right to human dignity, the right to equality of treatment and the freedom of thought, conscience and religion”. According to the Anti-Defamation League’s Audit of Antisemitic Incidents 2023, “In 2023, ADL tabulated 8,873 antisemitic incidents across the United States. This represents a 140% increase from the 3,698 incidents recorded in 2022 and is the highest number on record since ADL began tracking antisemitic incidents in 1979.” When assessing antisemitism in Arabic-speaking countries, the situation is even more disturbing. The ADL’s Global 100 survey, first launched in 2014, measures antisemitic beliefs across 100 countries, revealing notably high levels in Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with index scores reaching 74% in Saudi Arabia and 93% in the West Bank and Gaza (Weiberg, 2020). Antisemitism in the Arab world has deep historical roots, intensified by figures like Muhammad Rashid Rida in the early 20th century, who used antisemitic rhetoric in response to political Zionism. This hatred has been embedded in Arab political discourse for over a century, often framed in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, where conspiracy theories portray Jews as a global malevolent force. Islamist movements, emerging in the 1920s, have perpetuated these antisemitic views, depicting Jews as historical enemies and untrustworthy partners in peace. The legacy of antisemitism includes influential texts like the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, which were widely disseminated in the Arab world and continue to influence perceptions today (Winter & Link, 2024).

Washington, DC: Program on Extremism at George Washington University , 2025. 35p.

The Learning Disabilities and Challenges (LDC) Suite of Accredited Offending Behaviour Programmes An Uncontrolled Before-After Evaluation of Clinical Outcomes

By Rebecca Hubble

The Learning Disabilities and Challenge (LDC) suite are accredited offending behaviour programmes delivered by His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS) in custody and the community for adults assessed as having mild impairments in intellectual and adaptive functioning. There are four programmes within the suite: Becoming New Me Plus (BNM+), New Me Strengths (NMS), Living as New Me (LNM), and the Heathy Sex Programme (HSP). Our interim outcome evaluation attends to BNM+ and NMS only. This is because LNM and HSP are secondary programmes, i.e., they are intended to be delivered after completion of a primary programme. BNM+ is for men with LDC assessed as high or very high risk of reoffending, who present with at least one or more strong criminogenic needs across multiple domains and have a general violence, intimate partner violence and/or sexual offending conviction(s). NMS is designed for people with any offence convictions, who have been assessed as medium or above risk of reoffending, with sufficient levels of criminogenic need addressed by the programme. The aim of this interim outcome evaluation was to determine whether BNM+ and NMS participants were making positive progress against programme targets reflected in the Success Wheel Measure (SWM). The SWM, designed by HMPPS, is the core metric for measuring participant progress against programme targets for participants of BNM+ and NMS. The assessment domains are: (1) Managing Life’s Problems, (2) Healthy Thinking, (3) Positive Relationships, (4) Healthy Sex (for those with a sexual offence conviction only), and (5) Sense of Purpose (desistance from crime). The research also aimed to identify if individual (relating to the person) or programme delivery factors affected changes in SWM scores, and whether these changes varied between assessment domains.

Ministry of Justice Analytical Series 2024

London: Ministry of Justice, 2024. 48p.

Safer for All: A Plan to End Street Homelessness for People with Serious Mental Illness in NYC

By New York City. Office of the Comptroller General

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, a series of high-profile, random, and tragic acts of violence have heightened New Yorkers’ attention to people living on the streets and subways with serious mental illness. Following the killing of Michelle Go in January 2022 by an individual with a long history of psychosis, 37 more people were pushed off subway platforms in just over a year. In November 2023, New York Times reporters highlighted nearly 100 random attacks by mentally ill, homeless New Yorkers “failed by a system that keeps making the same errors.”

In recent weeks, the sense of crisis has been amplified by more heartbreaking incidents. On November 18, 2024, Ramon Rivera – who cycled on and off the streets with serious mental illness for years – went on a stabbing spree, killing 3 people in broad daylight in midtown Manhattan. On December 9, a jury acquitted Daniel Penny of the killing of Jordan Neely, whose failures by the system were legion. On Sunday, December 22, 2024, Debrina Kawam who was herself homeless was cruelly burned to death on an F train at the Coney Island station. On New Year’s Eve, another New Yorker was pushed onto the tracks into an oncoming train. New Yorkers’ sense of safety on subways and in their own neighborhoods has plummeted.

In response to mounting safety concerns, New York City and State have launched a slew of initiatives and legislative efforts to confront the issue of street homelessness for people with serious mental illness. But the efforts are piecemeal. People continue to fall through the cracks and there is little public confidence that things will change.

The Adams Administration has ineffectively coordinated a Continuum of Care (CoC) – and the results are devastating. Outreach teams lose track of clients. Hospitals release patients back to the street after a few hours because there aren’t enough inpatient beds to treat them. Judges cannot refer people into programs proven to reduce recidivism and increase adherence to treatment because there are no slots.[9] Jails place just 3% of discharged people with serious mental health challenges into supportive housing.

An audit by the Comptroller’s office in 2024 of the City’s Intensive Mobile Treatment (IMT) program for homeless New Yorkers with the most severe histories of mental illness found that the City inadequately measured whether the program was decreasing incarceration because of a lack of coordination among City agencies, that outcomes and treatment measures were inconsistent, and that placements into stable housing had declined precipitously.

Despite these persistent failures, evidence from other cities – and indeed, even from New York City – argues strongly that this crisis can be solved with more diligent leadership.

Data shows that there are approximately 2,000 people with serious mental illness at risk for street homelessness cycling through City streets, subways, jails, and hospitals. At that scale, a better-coordinated system is within the grasp of a city with the resources and capacity of New

York. Indeed, the City is already spending billions on outreach, police overtime, city jails, shelters, and emergency hospitalizations, but City Hall has continuously failed to coordinate these efforts effectively to solve the problem.

At the heart of that better-coordinated system, this report centers a “housing first” approach, which evidence shows has had great success in Philadelphia, Houston, Denver, other cities throughout the United States and around the world, and even in New York City. Housing first combines existing housing vouchers and service dollars to get people off the street and directly into stable housing with wraparound services.

Data shows that 70-90% of people experiencing street homelessness with serious mental illness will accept permanent housing with a coordinated outreach strategy, and that it will keep them stably housed, off the street, and better connected to the mental health services that will stabilize them.

Of course, a strategy that is 70-90% effective does not work 10-30% of the time. For those instances, New York City will need better processes for mandated treatment. Sometimes, individuals need to be hospitalized, either voluntarily or involuntarily when they are a danger to themselves or others. For an effective continuum of care, New York should thoughtfully amend its laws to allow a wider range of medical professionals to place or keep individuals in hospitalization and required the consideration of an individual’s full medical and behavioral history.

On any given day, there are approximately 1,400 people with serious mental illness detained in NYC jails, including Rikers Island. There is an urgent need to ensure these individuals are provided with adequate mental health care while they are in detention, and before they are discharged and return back to their communities. Instead, the City releases most of these individuals without receiving mental health treatment and without placement into housing, increasing the likelihood of returning to unsheltered homelessness. In addition, individuals assigned by court order to “assisted outpatient treatment” (AOT) face significant challenges including homelessness. Without stable housing, adherence to the required treatment plans becomes more difficult, undermining the effectiveness of AOT programs.

In all these cases, ultimately individuals need to be connected to stable housing – when they are discharged from jail, when they leave the hospital, or while they are in AOT – or else they will simply return to the street, where they are far more likely to go without treatment and continue in a declining spiral. That’s why a housing first approach is a central element of any effective plan.

With better coordination and management from City Hall, with a “housing first” approach that evidence suggests will work most of the time, and with more effective mandated treatment options when it doesn’t, New York City can dramatically reduce – and even effectively end – street homelessness of people with serious mental illness.

New York: New York City Office of the Comptroller General, 2025. 99p.

Police investigations of serious crimes and crimes against particularly vulnerable victims, Staff growth and investigative results. Interim report:

By Kristin Franke Björkman and Lina Fjelkegård

Since 2021, the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) has been commissioned by the Government with evaluating the initiative for 10,000 more police employees. The initiative aims to increase the number of police employees by 10,000 over the period 2016-2024 (Ju2021/02238). This is the third interim report under the assignment and focuses specifically on the investigative activities. The overarching purpose of the report is to analyse staff development and investigative results in the police's work with serious crime, especially serious crimes related to organised crime, and crime against particularly vulnerable victims during the period 2018-2023. In the study, Brå uses the Police Authority's personnel statistics and case data, interviews with heads of units and investigators, as well as a survey on the current staffing situation in the police districts’ investigative sections. In the analyses of case data, we also use the Police Authority's complexity measure, which was developed with the purpose of weighting cases according to how resource-intensive (complex) they are. The higher the value of the complexity measure (Kvalue) a case has, the more resources it requires. Delimitations In terms of staff development, the study is limited to focus specifically on Serious Crimes Investigative Units (SCUs), which are on the police district and regional organisational level, and on Domestic Violence Investigative Units (DVIUs), which are on the police district level. Investigative activities at local police district level are covered to a limited extent, and activities at national level are not included in the study at all. Trends in the inflow of cases and investigation outcomes focus on three overarching categories of offences. The first two categories, serious crimes and serious crimes related to organised crime (a subset of serious crimes), were identified empirically based on the types of crime that, according to the list of offences, shall be investigated at the police district level and are usually investigated by the SCUs. These categories include for example homicide (with or without the use of firearms), extortion, violence against a public official (police officer), arson, destruction causing public endangerment by explosion (hereafter referred to as explosions) and serious weapons offence. The fact that we selected the types of crime that the SCUs normally investigate is a delimitation that Brå has had to make in order for the study to be manageable in its scope. By including explosions and homicides with firearms, which are two of the most resource-intensive types of crime in terms of investigation, we believe that the study captures a key part of the police's investigative activities in relation to serious crime and serious organised crime. The third category, crimes against particularly vulnerable victims (SUB crimes), is the collective name for the offence code groups crimes against children, crimes in close relationships and rape against adults. This study includes those SUB crimes that, according to the list of offences, shall be investigated at police district level and are usually investigated by

the DVIUs. In addition, the study covers, to a limited extent, the investigative activities at the level of local police districts and their investigation of volume crimes, which are less complex and common types of crime such as theft, assault, and minor drug offences. The main outcome used to measure investigative performance is the proportion of cases reported to prosecutors out of all closed cases involving a preliminary investigation, which we refer to as clearance rate. Some analyses also present the number of cases reported to prosecutors. More employees in the investigative activities Within the investigative activities as a whole, the number of employees has increased by 2,900 (36%) over the period 2018-2023. However, staff growth is not evenly distributed across organisational levels, but is significantly higher at police district and regional level than at local police district level. Increased inflow of cases and high number of staff on temporary loan in Serious Crimes Over the period 2018-2023, the total inflow of serious crimes has increased by almost 30 per cent, both in terms of the number of cases and their complexity (K-value). However, the number of serious crime cases handled by the specialised Serious Crimes Investigative Units (SCUs) has remained relatively unchanged over time, while the K-value has increased. This development indicates that less complex cases have been removed from the SCUs, while a larger part of their inflow consists of the most complex serious crimes. The clear discrepancy between the increase in total inflow of cases (30%) and the unchanged inflow to the SCUs also suggests that a large and increasing number of serious crimes are handled in other parts of the organisation. This is also reflected in the increasing number of serious crime cases handled by local police districts. The number of serious crimes investigated by local police districts has increased by more than 80 per cent since 2018. Police Region Stockholm is the main driver of this development. There, the number of serious crimes investigated by local police districts has increased by almost 300 per cent. The number of employees in the SCUs has increased by 250 people, just over 30 per cent, between 2018 and 2023. The increase in staff took place mainly at the beginning and end of the period studied. Police Region Stockholm stands out with a significantly lower staff growth than the other regions (7%). Police Region Mitt has also experienced relatively low growth (17%). Growth is highest in Police Region Bergslagen (75%). Despite large regional variations, the overall picture is that despite the increase in staff, the specialised SCUs have not been able to cope with the increased influx of serious crimes. The staffing survey of the investigative sections also shows that the teams have difficulty managing the influx of cases themselves. According to the survey, almost a quarter of the SCU's staffing consists of temporarily borrowed staff.

English summary of Brå report 2024:9

Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 14p.

Facilitators of Criminal Networks.About Facilitators in the Public and Private Sectors.

By Johanna Skinnari, Karolina Hurve and Andrea Monti

In this report, the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) presents a government assignment regarding facilitators in the legal sector who provide assistance to criminal networks. For the purposes of this report, a facilitator is defined as someone misusing his or her position or mandate in local government or the public or private sectors in order to benefit criminal networks. Our research is based on analyses of interviews, cases and encrypted chat messages from members of criminal networks. Our study broadly confirms previous findings from Swedish and international research, particularly with regard to the tasks performed by facilitators. This report also presents a broader and more comprehensive picture of the conditions in Sweden. Unique data also provides us insight into areas not previously described.

What tasks do facilitators perform? Our study suggests that many members of criminal networks appear to have a substantial interest in using facilitators. Access to such facilitators is limited, but they can be found in all studied sectors. These mainly include the criminal justice system, numerous local government administrations, banking and finance, real estate, incorporation, bookkeeping and accounting services, legal services, security and surveillance, and transport. Overall, the identified cases occur in most regions of Sweden. This is therefore not solely a metropolitan phenomenon. The degree of activity among the identified facilitators ranges from sporadic, brief assistance to long-term and frequent assistance provided to numerous members of different criminal networks. The material as a whole shows that, in some areas, facilitators are more likely to assist criminal networks. Such professionals have frequent contacts with criminal actors, are exposed to threats or other pressure to a significant degree or receive remuneration that is tied to their number of clients. Facilitators mainly provide information to members of criminal networks, which is in line with previous studies. This information can be of very different kinds, including sensitive personal data, information about what public authorities or municipalities know about a criminal network, or more strategic information regarding potential criminal activity. Such information may also consist of warnings or instructions relayed to the criminal network from detained or imprisoned members. Such information allows them to coordinate their testimony and complicate investigations. One important observation is that information sought from facilitators need not be secret to be valuable. Rather, accumulated information and insider knowledge makes such information sensitive and useful to members of criminal networks. Professionals also facilitate logistics by smuggling, transporting or storing illegal goods. Facilitators may also create legitimate covers by generating credible documentation or certificates, or by providing companies which are used to commit crimes, as well as by identifying criminal schemes which appear as legitimate business activity. In some cases, facilitators are also needed to handle criminal proceeds, which public anti-money laundering measures have made more difficult for criminal networks. Finally, some facilitators even issue favourable decisions - they deviate from procurement procedures or other important decisions, fail to report crimes, or facilitate improper payments from welfare systems or the private sector. Our survey shows the facilitators are asked to perform a broad array of tasks of varying complexity. These range from logistical tasks, which the criminal network might have performed on its own or learned, to complex assignments which only a facilitator could perform, especially influencing the outcome of certain decisions and accessing sensitive information. Report 2024:2

Stockholm: Swedish Council on Crime Prevention 2025. 12p.

Swedish Crime Survey 2024

By Karolina Kamra Kregert

The main purpose of the Swedish Crime Survey (SCS) is to study trends in self-reported exposure to crime, fear of crime, confidence in the criminal justice system and crime victims' contact with the criminal justice system in the Swedish population (16-84 years). The survey also aims to describe differences among population groups, such as differences between men and women or among different age groups. This chapter presents a selection of the indicators included in the report, to summarise the results and provide an overall picture of trends and patterns. Note that, in the context of the SCS, exposure to crime refers to events that occurred during the previous calendar year, meaning that SCS 2024 refers to exposure to crime in 2023. Fear of crime refer to perceptions over the past year, while unsafety and confidence in the criminal justice system refer to perceptions at the time the questionnaire was answered. Trends Exposure to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft have decreased, while fraud has increased There is a decreasing trend in the proportion of the population who state that they have been exposed to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft. Exposure to sexual offences has significantly decreased in this year's survey (3.8 % in 2023, compared to 4.7 % in 2022), and after a sharp increase in the period 2012-2017, has begun decreasing instead. The proportion of respondents having been exposed to threats has also decreased (7.4% in 2023, compared to 7.7% in 2022), with an evident decreasing trend since 2020. Before that, there was an increase between 2014 and 2019. Furthermore, the proportion of households exposed to bicycle theft has decreased for the fourth consecutive year. Both sales fraud and card and credit fraud have increased in this year's survey. For sales fraud, an increasing trend has been observed since the first measuring point (2016), with a significant increase in this year's survey (from 6.1%, in 2022, to 6.9%, in 2023). Card and credit fraud have increased in the last two years, having previously decreased in 2020 and 2021. In terms of exposure to robbery, there was a decreasing trend as of 2020, but in this year's survey the proportion is the same as the previous year. For assault, pickpocketing, online harassment, harassment, burglary and car theft, the proportion has remained stable over the last three to four years.

English summary of Brå report 2024:8

Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 30p.

Residential Burglary: Development, Nature, and Police Handling

By Lina Fjelkegård and Emma Patel

The number of residential burglaries has decreased sharply in recent years – between 2017 and 2023, they were basically halved. However, many people still become victims of burglary. In 2023, 10,000 residential burglaries were reported to the police, and only 4 per cent were solved. Those affected may experience the burglary as a violation of privacy, and feel unsafe at home. For these reasons, Brå initiated this study on residential burglaries. The purpose is to provide an overall picture of the nature of residential burglaries, but also to examine the development of this crime over time, and how the police handle residential burglaries. Different methods and materials were used for this. We start from a number of preliminary investigations into residential burglaries, which Brå has coded and analysed. We have also used reporting statistics, data from police records, and interviews with police employees. International networks have probably had an impact Between 2007 and 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries in Sweden increased significantly. Brå has investigated possible explanations, and one piece of the puzzle seems to be increased activity from international crime networks from Eastern Europe. This may, in turn, be due to more open borders to the East and increased unemployment after the financial crisis in 2008. After 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries decreased – and around that time, border protection in Sweden was also enhanced. Meanwhile, the number of suitable objects for theft in dwellings seems to have decreased. The pandemic, which meant that people worked from home more, may also have contributed to a decrease in residential burglaries. However, Brå's review is only cursory, and several factors may have influenced the development of residential burglaries. Differences between single-family houses and flats Metropolitan municipalities generally have the highest number of reported burglaries per dwelling. Sparsely populated municipalities have the lowest number. The differences between the metropolitan municipalities and others mainly concern burglaries of single-family homes – flat burglaries are more evenly distributed across the country. There are also differences between single-family homes and flats in how the burglaries are committed. Single-family home burglaries are most often done by someone breaking open a window or a back door, while flats are more often breached through the entrance door. Flat burglaries are also more often committed with a low degree of finesse than single-family home burglaries. Most residential burglaries are committed during the day and the victim is rarely at home. The things stolen are often small and valuable. Two-thirds acted professionally To describe suspects of residential burglaries, Brå made a distinction between amateur and professional perpetrators. In one-third of the preliminary investigations, the perpetrators were classified as clear amateurs. They more frequently burglarised flats, and they relatively often had an addiction or mental illness. The female suspects most often fell into this group. The more professional perpetrators are more difficult to identify – they are less often caught and there is therefore less information about them in Brå's material. However, there is one group that can be described as clearly professional, and this is probably where you’ll find the international crime networks. According to the police, they often use false identities, change registration plates, and clean up traces at the crime scene. There is probably also an intermediate category of perpetrators who are neither amateurs nor among the most expert. The boundaries are also fluid for what is organised crime and what is not. People can, for example, be recruited temporarily by the criminal networks. The police could take more investigative measures According to the police's internal recommendations, the authority should always send out a police patrol in the event of a residential burglary, and then use specially trained staff for the technical investigation. Both of these things are also often done – a patrol was sent out in 73 per cent of burglaries of single-family houses. On average, the police carry out four investigative measures per residential burglary. However, Brå estimates that more measures probably could have been taken in almost half of the preliminary investigations. Often, there is no interrogation of an injured party or a witness. Police Region Stockholm carries out fewer investigative measures than the other police regions. Consistently, the police take more measures in cases of burglaries of single-family houses than in cases of flat burglaries. Today, the police immediately dismiss one-third of reports of residential burglaries, and the proportion has increased over time. It is also reasonable to immediately dismiss crimes that have little chance of being solved. Not everything that is reported is a crime – Brå sees that one-third of the preliminary investigations probably do not include residential burglaries. At the same time, the proportion of solved cases is only four per cent, and Brå estimates that the police can quite often do more. In particular, interrogations of injured parties and witnesses can be carried out more often. The police can improve coordination of investigations and work more on finding stolen goods There are four main ways to catch a perpetrator; in the act, trace evidence, witness identification, and stolen goods. This is according to the reported preliminary investigations. Police catch a suspect in the act in one third of the cases. In 29 per cent of cases, trace evidence is used to catch the suspect, usually DNA. Often, special local crime scene investigators (LCSI) collect traces. They conduct thorough examinations, which can be used to detect serial crime, but which rarely lead to a match in the police database. Therefore, Brå considers it could sometimes be more efficient to let the first police patrol do the crime scene investigation. This is especially true if there is no functioning crime linkage that can make use of traces collected by LCSI. Such coordination is lacking in several police regions – and it benefits organised crime when each case is handled locally. In one in five cases, witness identification is used to catch the perpetrator. More identifications could probably be made if the police interviewed more witnesses than today. There is also potential for improvement in terms of stolen goods. Today, a fifth of the cases are solved by the police identifying stolen goods. However, the goods are often discovered in connection with other matters – there is not much independent monitoring of stolen goods within the police. Brå assesses that there is a need for better IT tools and more active work in finding stolen goods. Report 2024:12 Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 7p.

Crime Radiation Theory: The Co-production of Crime Patterns Through Opportunity Creation and Exploitation

By Shannon J. Linning , Kate Bowers and John E. Eck

Considerable research shows that crime is concentrated at a few proprietary places: addresses and facilities. Emerging research suggests that proprietary places may radiate crime: activities at a place increase the risk of crime in the area around it. Weaknesses in the research create uncertainty about radiation, so we need more rigorous research. To conduct this research, we need a theory of crime radiation that operates at two spatial levels: the proprietary place and the area. This paper describes such a theory. Our theory states that crime radiation stems from the interaction between place management decisions at the place and offenders searching for opportunities in the area. Place managers create crime opportunities inside and outside their places. Offenders exploit place managers’ creations by deliberately searching for opportunities or by chancing upon the opportunities. The ways place managers and offenders interact gives rise to three types of crime radiation: hot dot, veiled dot, and cold dot. Finally, we propose questions crime scientists should answer to better understand crime radiation.

Crime Science (2024) 13:32

Nutritional Criminology: Why the Emerging Research on Ultra-Processed Food Matters to Health and Justice

By Susan L. Prescott ,Alan C. Logan ,Christopher R. D’Adamo ,Kathleen F. Holton ,Christopher A. Lowry ,John Marks ,Rob Moodie andBlake Poland

There is mounting concern over the potential harms associated with ultra-processed foods, including poor mental health and antisocial behavior. Cutting-edge research provides an enhanced understanding of biophysiological mechanisms, including microbiome pathways, and invites a historical reexamination of earlier work that investigated the relationship between nutrition and criminal behavior. Here, in this perspective article, we explore how this emergent research casts new light and greater significance on previous key observations. Despite expanding interest in the field dubbed ‘nutritional psychiatry’, there has been relatively little attention paid to its relevancy within criminology and the criminal justice system. Since public health practitioners, allied mental health professionals, and policymakers play key roles throughout criminal justice systems, a holistic perspective on both historical and emergent research is critical. While there are many questions to be resolved, the available evidence suggests that nutrition might be an underappreciated factor in prevention and treatment along the criminal justice spectrum. The intersection of nutrition and biopsychosocial health requires transdisciplinary discussions of power structures, industry influence, and marketing issues associated with widespread food and social inequalities. Some of these discussions are already occurring under the banner of ‘food crime’. Given the vast societal implications, it is our contention that the subject of nutrition in the multidisciplinary field of criminology—referred to here as nutritional criminology—deserves increased scrutiny. Through combining historical findings and cutting-edge research, we aim to increase awareness of this topic among the broad readership of the journal, with the hopes of generating new hypotheses and collaborations.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,   2024, 21(2), 120, 25p.

A Nationwide Swedish Retrospective Study on Poisoning Deaths Between the Years 2000 and 2022

By Elin Lindqvist, Jacob Hollenberg, Mattias Ringh, Per Nordberg, Henrik Druid, Leif Svensson, Sune Forsberg

Background

Approximately 1% of Sweden's 90 000 annual deaths were reported caused by poisoning. In this study, we aim to describe this poisoning population's characteristics, autopsy frequency and results of toxicology testing.

Method

A national cohort study based on Swedish national registers. All deceased subjects older than 18 years with poisoning as the cause of death registered between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2021 were included. Causes of death according to primary ICD-10 code were analysed along with the substances found in forensic chemistry testing.

Results

There were 27 057 poisonous deaths during the study periods 2 018 495 adult deaths. Subjects deceased due to poisoning had a median age of 53 years, and 18 838 (70%) were men. A private home was the most reported location of death (52%). In total, 23 260 (87%) did undergo some sort post-mortem examination. Drugs (synthetic narcotics, opioids, heroin) caused 12 448 (46%) deaths, and alcohols explained 9056 cases (33%). Positive toxicological tests were found in 22 550 (83%) of the subjects. The most common separate substances were ethanol, zopiclone and nordazepam.

Conclusion

Poisoning caused 1.3% of Swedish deaths. Men in their 50s were the most common victims, and their deaths were often cause by synthetic narcotics, other opioids or alcohol. The autopsy frequency was lower than expected for poisonous deaths.

Basic & Clinical Pharmacology & Toxicology, early view, 2024;1–8.

A Prosecutor's “Ideal” Sexual Assault Case: A Mixed‐Method Approach to Understanding Sexual Assault Case Processing

By John W. Ropp, Jacqueline G. Lee, Laura L. King, Lisa M. Growette Bostaph

Research continues to explore factors that contribute to high rates of attrition among sexual assault cases. Comparatively little is known, however, about prosecutorial, as opposed to police, decision-making in these cases. Using a mixed-method approach to analyze (1) 175 case files from a midsize policing agency in the West with trained sexual assault investigators and (2) detailed prosecutor notes from 52 corresponding cases, we explore patterns in three key outcomes: (a) arrest, (b) referral for prosecution, and (c) charging. Logistic regression results indicate that fewer variables predicted case outcomes compared with previous studies, suggesting that specially trained officers may be more adept at dismissing “rape myth” factors. Qualitative analysis of prosecutorial case notes, however, revealed that prosecutors tended to compare specific case elements to an envisioned “ideal” case, which frequently aligned with some pervasive rape myths prevalent in society. Prosecutors focused heavily on convictability, anticipating how a potential jury would respond to the case. Although specially trained investigators may better disregard extralegal rape-myth factors, these myths still plague decision-making at the prosecutorial stage indirectly via concerns for juror interpretation of the facts. We find strong support for the “downstream” perspective of prosecutorial decision-making.

Criminology, Volume 62, Issue 4, 2024, pages 704-738

The Promise and Perils of the Sharing Economy: The impact of Airbnb Lettings on Crime

By Charles C. Lanfear, David S. Kirk

Private short-term letting via Airbnb has exploded in the last decade, yet little is known about how this affects neighborhood crime rates. We estimate the association between Airbnb short-term letting activity and six types of police-reported crime in London, as well as an intervening mechanism, collective efficacy. We estimate these associations with maximum likelihood dynamic panel models with fixed effects (ML-SEM) using data on Airbnb lettings in 4,835 London neighborhoods observed for 13 calendar quarters. We explore mechanisms for the observed effects using multiple lag specifications and by disaggregating lettings into entire properties and spare rooms. We find that Airbnb activity is positively related to robbery, burglary, theft, and violence. These associations are attributable to lettings for entire properties rather than for rooms. Furthermore, associations are contemporaneous, as is consistent with an opportunity mechanism, rather than delayed, as would be consistent with a social control mechanism. Similarly, we find that the association between Airbnb activity and crime is not mediated by collective efficacy. Overall, these results suggest short-term letting contributes to neighborhood crime and these effects are more likely to be attributable to changes in criminal opportunity than erosion of neighborhood social control.

Criminology, Volume 62, Issue 4, 2024, pages 769-798

The Ecology of Business Environments and Consequences for Crime

By John R. Hipp, Cheyenne Hodgen

Research has typically focused on how certain types of business establishments are associated with the location of crime on street blocks. Studies in this genre, however, often have not accounted for the general business context of the block on which a business is located. This study uses a large sample of blocks in Southern California to test whether the context of businesses matters. We assess whether a nonlinear relationship exists between the total businesses on a block and crime, whether differences exist based on broad categories of businesses—consumer-facing businesses, blue-collar businesses, and white-collar businesses—and whether the mixing of businesses on a block impacts crime. The study finds strong evidence that blocks with more business mixing have higher levels of crime. A 1 standard deviation increase in business mixing is associated with 35%–95% more crime. The relationship between business mixing and crime is moderated by the size of the population on the block. Evidence also shows differences in relationships with crime between consumer-facing and white- or blue-collar businesses. Only modest evidence shows that specific business types are related to crime levels after accounting for this general business context.

Criminology, Volume 62, Issue 4, 2024, pages 859-891

Trends in Female Offending in New South Wales: 2014 to 2023

By Neil Donnelly

To examine 10-year trends in offending by females in New South Wales (NSW) between 2014 and 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for all people proceeded against by the NSW Police Force between 2014 and 2023. The number and proportion of offences committed by female and male offenders are presented. Offending trends are examined across 32 specific offence categories using the average annual percentage change in offences and the Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. This analysis is conducted for the entire population of female and male offenders regardless of age, then repeated for the subset of young offenders. RESULTS Between 2014 and 2023 the number of females proceeded against by NSW police increased by 40%, compared to just 17% for males. The proportion of female offenders grew by around 15%, from 19% of all offenders in 2014 to 22% of all offenders in 2023. Female offenders were most commonly proceeded against for steal from retail store (12%), possess/use drugs (12%), domestic violence (DV) assault (11%), non-DV assault (7%) and breach bail conditions (7%). Much of the overall growth in female offending can be explained by increases in a small number of high-volume offence categories. These include: breach of Apprehended Violence Orders (12% increase in female offences from 2014 to 2023 versus a 7% increase in male offenders); breach bail conditions (12% vs. 8%); DV assault (8% vs. 2%); and non-DV assault (4% vs. 1%). The average annual number of female offenders (compared to males) also increased across several lower volume offences, although these contributed less to the growth in female offending overall. Most predominantly: sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (13% vs. 2.5%); motor vehicle theft (12% vs. 9%); prohibited weapons offences (8% vs. 4%); break and enter non-dwelling (7% vs. stable); and trespass (6% vs. 3%). Trends and offending patterns were similar for young female offenders aged 10-17 years. One difference was the number of young female offenders grew by just 20% between 2014 and 2023 (compared to relatively stable trends for young male offenders). CONCLUSION While there has been a long-term increase in the number of female offenders proceeded against by the NSW Police Force, they continue to represent a small proportion of all offenders. Further analysis utilising representative surveys may provide insight int

Sydney: NSW BUREAU OF CRIME STATISTICS AND RESEARCH - 2024. 14p.

How Much Does Crime Spike Over the Holidays? The Relationship Between Public Holidays and Assault

By Nicholas Chan and Alana Cook

It is well recognised that both domestic and non-domestic violence vary over the course of the year often rising in summer and spiking during holiday periods and with other key events. This paper shows the daily number of domestic violence (DV) and non-DV assaults recorded by the NSW Police Force on each date of the year to observe the extent to which violence increases on public holidays and other significant dates1 . Figure 1 shows the median daily number of criminal incidents of assault recorded by police from the years 2010 to 2023. To minimise the impact of abnormal crime patterns during the COVID pandemic, the chart excludes the years 2020 and 2021. The chart shows that across the year, there are clear peaks on several dates. The largest spike for both DV assault and non-DV assault occurs on New Year’s Day (1 January). Obvious spikes in assault also occur on Australia Day (January 26), ANZAC Day (April 25), New Year’s Eve (31 December), Christmas Day (December 25) and Boxing Day (December 26).

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. 2024. 4p.

Not Just a Joke: Understanding & Preventing Gender- & Sexuality Based Bigotry

By Lydia Bates, et al.

Why this guide? A wide variety of forms of misogyny and genderbased bigotry have spiked in recent years.1 This includes a documented rise in forms of male supremacist violence that are now recognized as part of the spectrum of domestic violent extremism, including threats, plots and attacks from misogynist incels. 2 3 Everyday forms of misogyny and hostile sexism, especially online, have also increased, with one study showing that misogynistic tweets positively predict domestic and family violence in the United States.4 Further, anti-feminist sentiments have been rising among Generation Z boys and young men.5 This rise in gender-based bigotry includes a surge of anti-LGBTQ+ ideas and beliefs, evidenced through the hundreds of discriminatory bills introduced across the United States in 2024.6 At the intersection of anti-Black racism, anti-LGBTQ+ hate and misogyny, Black women, girls and transgender women experience an outsized amount of harm and violence. On the community level, these harms manifest from harassment at Pride month events and attacks on LGBTQ+ friendly businesses to unequal reproductive health care access and deadly transmisogynist violence. These surges are partially explained by the sheer breadth of online spaces where gender-based hate is fostered and thrives, such as video game chats, comment trolls on mainstream social media sites, and dedicated Reddit pages focused on ways to manipulate and denigrate women. Because hateful comments, memes and short-form videos are often infused with irony, satire or other forms of humor, gender-based hate online is sometimes disguised as “just a joke” or hidden behind the excuse of having two different meanings. Hate and policing individuals’ gender have also been legitimized and normalized by politicians, elected officials, and online influencers who peddle supposed success stories of wealth and status that rely on the exploitation and domination of women. And extremist groups who embrace racism and political violence, like the Proud Boys, have joined the fray by directly targeting bookstores that host Drag Story Hours and demonstrations advocating for abortion rights. Falsely linking drag performances and LGBTQ+ people with sexual predation, sometimes called “grooming,” they have sought new ways to build sympathy among mainstream conservatives.7 Collaboration & Scope A collaborative team of experts from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) and the Polarization & Extremism Research & Innovation Lab (PERIL) drafted this guide. It is part of a broader public health approach for the prevention of violence and harm stemming from extremism, manipulative disinformation and dehumanizing rhetoric. Our organizations root our development of this approach in communities’ needs and by centering support for targeted individuals and survivors. And our approach is necessarily noncarceral, so that we can emphasize education and prevention over monitoring, surveillance and other security-based approaches. This guide is a resource for caregivers who surround and support young people – parents and relatives, teachers and educators, counselors and therapists, coaches and youth mentors, and more. It includes an overview and introduction to the concepts, trends and risks related to gender-based bigotry alongside the tools to build resilience and awareness, as well as ways to intervene. It also provides strategies and resources to support survivors and targeted individuals and communities. While this guide cannot cover every harm that young people will encounter related to gender-based bigotry, we aim for as wide a breadth as possible.

Montgomery, AL: Southern Poverty Law Center, 2024.

Dual Pathways of Concealed Gun Carrying and Use from Adolescence to Adulthood Over a 25-Year Era of Change

By Charles C. Lanfear, David S. Kirk , Robert J. Sampson

Most homicides in the United States are committed using a handgun, but little research examines gun carrying over critical stages of the life course and changing contexts of violence. Notably, although most of the handgun homicides are committed by adults, most research on concealed gun carrying focuses on adolescents in single cohort studies. Using more than 25 years of longitudinal multi-cohort data from Chicago, 1994–2021, we show that pathways of concealed gun carrying are distinct between adolescence and adulthood. Adolescent carrying is often age-limited and responsive to direct exposure to gun violence (witnessing and victimization), while adult carrying is a persistent behavior that is less tied to direct exposure. The onset of concealed carry is also a strong predictor of later gun use (shooting or brandishing), and we find distinct patterns of gun use between individuals who first carry in adolescence versus adulthood. We discuss the implications of these dual pathways for research and policies on firearm use.

Sci. Adv. 10, 2024, 12p.