By Shawn Davies, Garoun Engström, Therése Pettersson, and Magnus Öberg

This article examines trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2023, fatalities from organized violence decreased for the first time since the rapid increase observed in 2020, dropping from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023. Despite this decline, these figures represent some of the highest fatality rates recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, surpassed only by those of 2022 and 2021. The decrease was primarily attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which accounted for about 60% of battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021. Despite this positive development, the number of active state-based armed conflicts increased by three in 2023, reaching the highest level ever recorded by the UCDP, totaling 59. Non- state conflicts and one-sided violence decreased in 2023 when compared to 2022, evident in both the reduction of the active conflicts/actors and the decrease in fatalities attributed to these forms of violence. However, despite this overall decrease, fatalities resulting from non-state conflicts remained at historically high levels in 2023. Analysis of non-state conflict data spanning the past decade reveals that it comprises the ten most violent years on record. Organized crime groups have predominantly fueled this escalation. Unlike rebel groups, organized crime groups typically lack political goals and are primarily motivated by economic gain. Conflicts between these groups tend to intensify around drug smuggling routes and in urban areas, driven by shifts in alliances and leadership dynamics among the actors.

Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 61(4), 2024, 673­ –693 pages

By Anita Lavorgna, and Anna Sergi

This paper, based on discourse analysis of policy documents, departs from a critique of the juxtaposition of the terms “serious” and “organised” in policies against organised crime in the UK. The conceptualisation of organised crime as national security threat supports our hypothesis that a similar critique can be applied to the emerging narrative of cyber-organised crime in the country. We argue that, whereby organised crime has become essentially “serious” as consequence of its characterisation as a national security threat, cyber crime is becoming “organised” in the policy narrative because of its seriousness. The seriousness and organisation of cyber crime justifies its inclusion within the national security agenda, thus accessing the procedural benefits of criminal intelligence assigned to national security threats. The implications associated to the evolution of such narratives in policy-making need to be assessed while policies are still developing.

International Journal of Cyber Criminology, 2016, 18p.

By Daniel Birks, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Nick Malleson

An agent-based model is a form of complex systems model that is capable of simulating how the micro-level behavior of individual system entities contributes to macro-level system outcomes. Researchers draw on theory and evidence to identify the key elements of a given system and specify behaviors of agents that simulate the individual entities of that system—be they cells, animals, or people. The model is then used to run simulations in which agents interact with one another and the resulting outcomes are observed. These models enable researchers to explore proposed causal explanations of real-world outcomes, experiment with the impacts that potential interventions might have on system behavior, or generate counterfactual scenarios against which real-world events can be compared. In this review, we discuss the application of agent-based modeling within the field of criminology as well as key challenges and future directions for research.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:75-95 January 2025)

By Jack Katz and Nahuel Roldán

Criminology is haunted by state-structured biases. We discuss five. (a) With the spatial boundaries and the binary deontology they use to count crime, governments draw researchers into ecological fog and sometimes fallacy. (b) All legal systems encourage criminologists to promote untenable implications of socially stratified criminality. (c) To degrees that vary by time and place, the scope of criminological research is compromised by methodological nationalism. (d) State agencies use chronologies that repeatedly draw researchers away from examining the nonlinear temporalities that shape variations in criminal behavior. (e) State agencies produce data that facilitate explaining the why of crime, but scientific naturalism would first work out what is to be explained. We recommend a criminology that begins by describing causal contingencies in social life independent of governments’ labeling of crime.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:53-73 , January 2025

By John Hagan

My interest in criminology grew as the Vietnam War escalated. I applied to two Canadian graduate schools and flipped a coin. The coin recommended the University of Toronto, but I chose the University of Alberta, which had a stronger criminology program. I wrote a dissertation about criminal sentencing, which led to an Assistant Professorship at the University of Toronto. Dean Robert Pritchard of Toronto’s Law School encouraged my work and later successfully nominated me for a Distinguished University Professorship. My interests continued to grow in international criminal law. A MacArthur Distinguished Professorship at Chicago’s Northwestern University and the American Bar Foundation facilitated my research at the Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. I followed this by studying the crime of genocide in Sudan and later the trial of Chicago’s Detective Jon Burge. Burge oversaw the torture of more than 100 Black men on Chicago’s South Side. US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald prosecuted Burge when Illinois prosecutors would not. Despite many good things about Chicago, the periodic corruption of the government and police was not among them.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:1-23 . January 2025

By Reanna Sanchez

The goal of this process evaluation was to determine how closely the RRC was following evidence-based practices for reentry and to determine how successful the RRC has been transitioning individuals from the jail to the community. To evaluate the effectiveness of the RRC, we (1) conducted a survey of county staff involved in the reentry process (n = 25) to better understand how staff perceive the reentry planning process and the RRC, (2) conducted observations of the intake and screening process at the MDC, and (3) reviewed client records for all inmates who passed through the RRC between 2018 and 2022. We found that there were challenges associated with how the RRC screened, assessed, and targeted individuals for intervention related to a lack of standardization across process components. Surveys collected from staff members provided insight into challenges related to reentry, such as the need for a single case plan to follow the individual through jail and into the community. Finally, analysis of the client-level data illustrated the services and needs of clients. While many individuals (n = 9,985) completed risk needs assessments (RNAs), the number of individuals that completed transition plans (TPs) is far less (n = 2,785). Due to the nature of the different challenges of the current process in place, determining the impact of the RRC on recidivism reduction remains complicated.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2023. 40p.

By  Alex Severson,  Paul Guerin,  Reanna Sanchez, Cris Moore,

This study validates two risk assessments designed to predict inmate misconduct in New Mexico prisons. Using a six-year admission cohort of inmates admitted to New Mexico prisons between 2015 and 2021 (n = 34,2467 unique classification events), we paired focus groups with New Mexico Corrections Department classification staff and observations of the classification process with logistic regression, count models, and random forest models to assess the predictive validity of the New Mexico Corrections Department (NMCD)’s initial and reclassification tools for general and serious, violent misconduct within six months following classification. Results from focus groups and observations highlighted that the NMCD had the essential components of an objective classification system. Our empirical validation found that the reclassification tool was more predictive of misconduct than the initial classification tool for both male and female inmates and generally had good classification performance, though there were limitations with the metric we used for evaluating predictive validity. We also recommended that some factors on the classification tools should be rescored based on their predictive relationship with serious violent misconduct and proposed an updated scoring system based on these relationships (i.e., increasing points for factors which were more predictive of violent misconduct). We also evaluated the relationship between overrides, custody levels, and misconduct.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2024. 70p.

By Alex Severson,  Elise Ferguson

This study evaluates the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) in Bernalillo County, New Mexico, using data from 22,387 felony cases between July 2017 and June 2023. The PSA, which generates scores predicting defendants' likelihood of failure to appear (FTA), new criminal activity (NCA), and new violent criminal activity (NVCA) during pretrial release, demonstrated "fair" to "good" predictive validity with AUC scores ranging from 0.58-0.69, aligning with results from our initial validation study from June 2021. While the PSA showed similar predictive performance across racial groups for FTA and NCA outcomes, the NVCA flag performed poorly for Black defendants, with predictive validity no better than chance. We also found that age-related risk factors embedded in the NCA and NVCA scales had limited predictive value. We documented significant increases in FTA rates during and after COVID-19, likely due to policy changes that increased court appearances through mandatory status hearings. Despite higher base rates of NCA and NVCA for male defendants, the PSA demonstrated similar predictive validity across genders. Analysis of NCA by charge severity revealed that even high-risk defendants rarely committed serious felonies while on pretrial release. Our findings suggest opportunities to optimize the PSA locally by adjusting how age-related factors are weighted and reconsidering the use of the NVCA flag for Black defendants.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR APPLIED RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS , 2024. 48p.

By Alex Severson, Reanna Sanchez Chavez, Paul Guerin

This study evaluates the outcomes of the Bernalillo County Community Connections Supportive Housing (CCSH) program, which provides housing and intensive case management services to persistently unhoused individuals with mental illness and substance use disorders who frequently utilize emergency services and the criminal justice system. Using data from 442 CCSH participants enrolled between 2017-2022, we analyzed changes in criminal justice system involvement before and after program enrollment by examining jail bookings and court records. The analysis combined descriptive statistics with logistic regression models to evaluate how program engagement impacted recidivism. Results indicate that participants had significantly fewer bookings into the Metropolitan Detention Center and lower arrest rates in the post-enrollment period compared to pre-enrollment across one, two, and three-year timeframes. Higher doses of case management were associated with reduced odds of recidivism - each additional day (8 hours) of case management received was associated with approximately 7% lower odds of arrest in the year following enrollment. However, this effect faded over longer time periods. Being non-successfully discharged from the program (e.g., due to program noncompliance) was associated with significantly higher odds of recidivism. While our findings suggest potential positive effects of the CCSH program on criminal justice outcomes, our ability to make causal claims is limited by the lack of a control group and incomplete data on post-enrollment periods of incarceration. Future research should examine the program's impact on health system utilization outcomes.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2024. 22p.

By Aaron Lenihan,  Amanda Hauke,  Francisco Sanchez and Paul Guerin,

The Department of Health, Housing, and Homelessness (HHH) launched the Albuquerque Peer to Peer: Opioid Coordination and Outreach Project in September 2017. The project aims to reduce opioid misuse, overdose, and death in the Albuquerque area by using peer support workers to connect individuals suffering from opioid use disorder with appropriate treatment and recovery support services. This report presents the results of CARA’s evaluation of the Peer to Peer project. We review the scientific literature on similar programs to establish a baseline for expected client outcomes and best practices, and then compare the Peer to Peer project to this baseline through an analysis of program documents and service data. The results of our analysis reveal that Albuquerque Peer to Peer is broadly designed and implemented according to best practices. However, we recommend clarifying the procedures for assessing client needs and facilitating client engagement in referred-to services. In terms of the short-term outcome -- proportion of clients who engaged in the treatment services to which they were referred – we found that Albuquerque Peer to Peer is performing as well as comparable, state-of-the-art peer outreach programs. We recommend the project track middle to long-term client outcomes, like rates of EMS involvement and overdose death, moving forward.

Albuquerque: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, Institute for Social Research, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2023. 40p.

By Robin Joy

Routine Activity Theory, a criminological theory that describes the circumstances in which crime occurs, can be applied to crimes against vulnerable adults and the elderly. Using a variety of data sources this report examines this theory and finds: 1. Vulnerable Adults are more likely to be victimized by someone they know. 2. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes have criminal histories that indicate a specialization in criminal activity, compared to those of the general offending population. 3. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes are significantly older than the general offending population. 4. Most crimes against the vulnerable and the elderly take place in a private home. 5. The elderly are more likely to be victims of larceny, while the vulnerable adults are more likely to be victims of fraud. Routine Activity Theory can explain the victimization against the vulnerable and elderly. Using this framework, policy makers and stakeholders can begin to create policies and programs that can help keep vulnerable and elderly Vermonters safe.   

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2022. 17p.

By Monica Wheeler and Robin Joy

This memo explores drug charge filings and dispositions in the Vermont Superior Court, Criminal Division from 2018 through November 2023. Summary • Heroin filings are down from their pre-pandemic levels. • Cocaine filings and dispositions are rising back to their pre-pandemic levels. • The most common crimes associated with drug charges are public order offenses. • Property crimes are not often associated with drug charges. • Cocaine is the most common drug charged with fentanyl cases, heroin cases, and the catchall depressant/stimulant/narcotic cases.

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2024. 18p.

By Robin Joy

This report explores the utility of using Vermont criminal histories to understand probation and parole violations. We conclude that criminal histories alone are not sufficient to understand the dynamics of probation and parole violations. Intensive Department of Corrections (DOC) resources would be needed to better understand the when, where, and what of violations. Methods We used two data sources to identify who was released on probation or parole. For parole releases we used the National Corrections Reporting Program (NCRP) report that is generated by the Vermont Department of Corrections and submitted to the federal government. This report is an offender-level report that captures entries and releases from correctional facilities. We used the reports that captured Federal Fiscal Year data from 2016, 2017, and 2018. We used this dataset to identify people who were released from facilities and therefore might have been placed on parole. We requested their Vermont criminal histories and identified if/when they were released on parole. They became our parole cohort. The probation cohort was generated from the Court Adjudication Database maintained by Crime Research Group (CRG). We selected people who were sentenced to probation or deferred sentences (which is also a probationary sentence) for the probation cohort. We had to exclude people sentenced to a split sentence. A split sentence is a type of sentence that is split between incarceration in a facility and then a subsequent period of time on probation. We did not include these people because we could not accurately identify when someone was released from a correctional facility to probation. In the NCRP data, the release could be the initial release or release from an incarceration due to a probation violation. The criminal histories no longer capture when someone is released on probation. The final cohort for probation, deferred, and parole are described below in Table 1. As is often the case with criminal justice data in Vermont, there were too few people of Asian, Indigenous, and Hispanic descent to provide detailed numbers without the possibility of someone being identified

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2022. 9p.

By Michael Rocque, Grant Duwe and Valerie Clark

Identity or self-concept has long been theorized to explain rule-violating behavior. Life-course criminology scholarship has incorporated identity as a core concept explaining desistance or disengagement from crime over time. Individuals who transform their identities from anti to prosocial or who are ready to move away from their past selves are more likely to desist from crime. However, the role of identity, particularly the forms of identity that have been theorized to influence desistance, has been understudied with respect to prison behavior. Understanding the ways in which identity relates to prison misconduct may help inform prison programming as well as theoretical perspectives drawing on the concept. The purpose of this study is to explore how various forms of identity are related to future prison misconduct, controlling for past misconduct and a host of other theoretical variables, in Minnesota prisons. The results indicate that two forms of identity, replacement self and cognitive transformation, are related to general misconduct but not violent misconduct in survival models. For general misconduct, both forms of identity are associated with a reduction in the risk of new convictions. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

St. Paul: Minnesota Department of Corrections, 2023. 31p.

By Grant Duwe and Valerie Clark

While specific responsivity factors are believed to either inhibit or facilitate successful involvement in programming, relatively little attention has been given to the validation of responsivity assessments used for correctional populations. Based on a sample of nearly 2,100 individuals confined in Minnesota prisons, this study examines the relationship between a needs and responsivity assessment system and multiple measures of program participation, dosage and completion. The responsivity domains—childhood trauma, mental health, religiosity, motivation and learning style—were significantly associated with at least one measure of programming. All but two of the needs domains also had a significant association with programming involvement. We discuss the implications of the findings for correctional research and practice.

St. Paul:: Minnesota Department of Corrections, 2024. 37p.

By Coen Teunissen, Isabella Voce and Russell G Smith

This report estimates the cost of pure cybercrime to individuals in Australia in 2019. A survey was administered to a sample of 11,840 adults drawn from two online panels—one using probability sampling and the other non-probability sampling—with the resulting data weighted to better reflect the distribution of the wider Australian population.

Thirty-four percent of respondents had experienced some form of pure cybercrime, with 14 percent being victimised in the last 12 months. This is equivalent to nearly 6.7 million Australian adults having ever been the victim of pure cybercrime, and 2.8 million Australians being victimised in the past year.

Drawing on these population estimates, the total economic impact of pure cybercrime in 2019 was approximately $3.5b. This encompasses $1.9b in money directly lost by victims, $597m spent dealing with the consequences of victimisation, and $1.4b spent on prevention costs. Victims recovered $389m.

Statistical Bulletin no. 34.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2021. 15p.

By Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry & Hanna Hernandez

This report analyzes COVID-19 impacts on criminal justice data. Specifically, it focuses on the differences amongst adult and juvenile arrests, adult sentencing and juvenile dispositions, adult and juvenile carceral admissions between 2020 and previous years. This type of analysis can help support state and federal policymakers in determining potential next steps in addressing the pandemic’s impact on the criminal justice system – both in the short-term and in the long-term. This report will also help future researchers better understand the anomalies and a more accurate assessment of the pandemic that occurred in the criminal justice datasets during the years impacted. The Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2021 State Justice Statistics Grant from Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Among other projects, the SAC sought the grant to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on criminal justice data. Main conclusions from this report: 1. Overall, counts of arrests in Washington State, regardless of category, showed mixed findings with increased from 2017 to 2018 and then 2019 to 2020; but decreased from 2018 to 2019 and then again 2020 to 2021. From 2020 to 2021, there was an overall 3% decrease in arrests in Washington State. 2. For adult arrests in Washington State, from 2019 to 2020 and then 2020 to 2021, there was an overall 17.8% and 13.9% decrease, respectively. For juvenile arrests, from 2019 to 2020 and then 2020 to 2021, there was an overall 39.1% and 33.2% decrease, respectively. 3. Superior court filings decreased from 16.2% in 2018-2019, to 21.4% in 2019-2020, to 15.7% in 2020-2021. Additionally, felony jail sentences decreased throughout the years, from 2017 to 2021. Furthermore, while the overall average prison sentences also saw a decrease from 2017 to 2021, in 2019 to 2020, murder, sex crimes, robbery, and drug crimes saw rises. 4. Juvenile dispositions showed substantial decreases from 2019 to 2020 and from 2020 to 2021 by 7.3% and by 28.8%, respectively. 5. Adult prison admissions saw a decline in all admissions (new, re-admit, and other) . from 2019 to 2021 6. From 2019 to 2020,DOC juvenile admissions and new admissions increased by 126.9% and 11.7%, respectively. 2020 to 2021 presented with decreases in all juvenile admissions.

Olympia: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center, 2022. 213p.

By Hanna Hernandez, M.A. & Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry

This report analyzes COVID-19 impacts on criminal justice data. Specifically, it focuses on reported National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) offenses and Washington Association of Sheriffs and Police Chiefs (WASPC) arrests and bookings. This type of analysis supports state and federal policymakers to determine the actions needed to address the pandemic’s impact on the criminal justice system. This will also help future researchers define the anomalies that occurred in the criminal justice datasets, specifically the longitudinal studies that include the years impacted by COVID-19. Researchers can provide a more accurate assessment of the impact that the pandemic may have on the criminal justice system and its associated datasets. The Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2021 State Justice Statistics Grant from Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). Among other projects, the SAC sought the grant to conduct this report to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on criminal justice data. Main conclusions: 1. There was a decrease in 2018 to 2019 (3.0%) and 2019 to 2020 (9.3%) in NIBRS incidents reported. 2. There was a decrease in 2018 to 2019 (0.5%) and 2019 to 2020 (19.1%) in WASPC arrests. 3. There was a decrease in 2018 to 2019 (24.7%) and 2019 to 2020 (12.4%) in WASPC bookings.

Olympia: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center, 2022. 23p.

By Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry. & Hanna Hernandez

The global 2020 coronavirus pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the operations and actions of local, state, and national governments across all areas of criminal justice. The unique characteristics of this pandemic trend toward short- and long-term consequences as significant changes to criminal justice and legal outcomes. To respond to these impacts, the Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2022 State Justice Statistics (SJS) grant from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The SAC sought the grant to increase access to statistical data and create new metrics and indicators to enhance the integrated criminal justice database — the Justice Data Warehouse (JDW) — in efforts to strategically and analytically evaluate the pandemic’s impacts in criminal justice. Through this grant, the Washington SAC leveraged and built upon the JDW to expand the data variables by creating COVID-19 metrics and indicators to help assess and account for COVID-19 impacts in the criminal justice and legal system.

Olympia: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center. 2024. 49p.

Edited by Nutmeg Hallett, Richard Whittington, Dirk Richter, Emachi Eneje

This book aims to provide a state-of-the-art overview of the contexts, causes and treatments that relate to the reduction of coercion and the prevention of violence in mental health settings. The objective of this new edition in Open Access is to integrate theoretical explanations, empirical findings and practical solutions on the topic from many countries and diverse professional contexts.

A large proportion of the text is concerned with practical and applied guidance for practitioners and others based on a clear understanding of conceptual and theoretical issues. Significantly enriched by the contributions of lived experience editors and co-authors, this edition brings authentic, new perspectives that deepen its relevance and impact.

There is extensive use of case studies drawn from practice and the media to enliven the discussion. The scope of the book is intended to go beyond a reductionist medical/biological orientation on coercion and violence in mental health by integrating this within broader psychological and social frameworks. It includes new relevant contributions from nursing, psychology, psychiatry and sociology. The language of the book is clear and understandable to a broad audience whilst offering new knowledge for researchers and other specialists.

Cham Springer Nature, 436p.