By Robynn S Cox, Jamein P. Cunningham

We estimate the effectiveness of the Edward Byrne Memorial State and Local Law Enforcement Assistance Program, a grant program authorized under the 1988 Anti-Drug Abuse Act to combat illicit drug abuse and to improve the criminal justice system, on racial bias in policing. Funds for the Byrne Grant program could be used for a variety of purposes to combat drug crimes, as well as violent and other drug related crimes. The event-study analysis suggests that implementation of this grant resulted in an increase in police hiring and an increase in arrests for drug trafficking. Post-treatment effect implies a 107 percent increase in white arrests for drug sales compared to a 44 percent increase for blacks 6 years after the first grant is received. However, due to historical racial differences in drug arrests, the substantial increase in white drug arrest still results in large racial disparities in drug arrests. This is supported by weighted least squares regression estimates that show, for every $100 increase in Byrne Grant funding, arrests for drug trafficking increased by roughly 22 per 100,000 white residents and by 101 arrests per 100,000 black residents. The results provide strong evidence that federal involvement in narcotic control and trafficking lead to an increase in drug arrests; disproportionally affecting blacks

Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, Volume 40, Issue 1, Winter 2021, Pages 191-224

By Thomas Grisaffi, Linda Farthing, Kathryn Ledebur, Maritza Paredes, Alvaro Pastor

Between 2006-2019, Bolivia emerged as a world leader in formulating a participatory, non-violent model to gradually limit coca production in a safe and sustainable manner while simultaneously offering farmers realistic economic alternatives to coca. Our study finds that not only has this model reduced violence, but it has effectively expanded social and civil rights in hitherto marginal regions. In contrast, Peru has continued to conceptualize ‘drugs’ as a crime and security issue. This has led to U.S.-financed forced crop eradication, putting the burden onto impoverished farmers, generating violence and instability. At the request of farmers, the Peruvian government has made a tentative move towards implementing one aspect of Bolivia’s community control in Peru. Could it work? We address this question by focusing on participatory development with a special emphasis on the role of local organizations and the relationship between growers and the state. Drawing on long-term ethnographic fieldwork, interviews, focus group discussions and secondary research, we find that for community control to have any chance of success in Peru, grassroots organizations must be strengthened and grower trust in the state created. The study also demonstrates that successful participatory development in drug crop regions is contingent on land titling and robust state investment, which strengthens farmer resolve to participate so as to avoid a return to the repression of the past.

World Development, 2021, 14p.

By Sjoukje van Deuren

Although Dutch Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs (OMCGs) have been around since the late nineteen seventies, it was not until the turn of the century that Dutch OMCGs increasingly started to attract attention from both the authorities and the general public. In 1996, a report on Dutch organized crime provided a starting point for the government’s view that OMCGs in general and the Hells Angels in particular, are hotbeds for serious and organized crime that need to be addressed. In the report, members of the Amsterdam Hells Angels were accused of being involved in serious and organized crime, such as the trade, import, and transit of synthetic drugs (Bovenkerk & Fijnaut, 1996). In 2012, the presumption that members of at least some OMCGs were involved in organized crime, a growing fear of inter-club feuds, and the feeling that Dutch OMCGs were exhibiting themselves as untouchable and above the law, spurred the minister of Security and Justice to announce a multi-pronged, whole-of-government approach (Van Ruitenburg, 2020). This integrated approach was aimed at combating criminal OMCGs via all legal options available, including criminal, civil, and administrative means. Initially all OMCGs of the former Dutch Council of Eight – a consultative body established in 1996 by the Hells Angels and seven other motorcycle clubs to avoid turmoil and inter-club rivalry – were subjected to the integrated approach. In the context of the integrated approach, various actors, such as the police, local governments, and tax authorities closely work together to raise barriers against the OMCG subculture.1 The approach aims to hinder the criminal opportunities of OMCG members, reduce the popularity of the OMCG subculture, and target the untouchable image of OMCGs by addressing the OMCGs on the individual and on the club level. On the individual level, focal points of the approach are prioritizing the criminal prosecution of individual OMCG members, and reducing the number of OMCG members working for the private security sector or the government. Criminal prosecution is specifically targeted at OMCG board members in an effort to rid the clubs of their management. On the club level, club houses are closed down and OMCG-related events are prohibited. Clubhouses are believed to be important locations for the planning and execution of (organized) crime, while OMCGrelated events provide opportunity for the escalation of conflict. More recently, the Dutch Public Prosecution Office successfully filed petitions to the civil court to ban those Dutch OMCGs deemed to be most heavily involved in crime. Overall, the integrated approach is much more focused on the structural aspects of OMCGs as collectives, rather than on specific forms of (organized) crime committed by individual members. Importantly, when the integrated approach was implemented in 2012, there was scant knowledge on the crimes of the various Dutch OMCGs, and on whether and in which (continued)

Amsterdam: Free University of Amsterdam, 2023. 175p.

By Ashley Brown, Shane D. Johnson & Nilufer Tuptuk

Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) integrate advanced communication and autonomous driving technologies, enabling them to operate independently or with minimal human intervention. Despite the anticipated benefits for transportation, CAVs could be vulnerable to a wide variety of crimes unless security and crime prevention measures are proactively integrated into the technologies enabling their operation. To understand the potential crime threats, an extensive scoping review was conducted, covering incidents reported in the news and media, along with academic articles from crime and cybersecurity research. A total of 70 news articles related to crime incidents were identified, along with 12 academic articles on crimes. In addition, the findings from 35 survey papers addressing security attacks against CAVs, along with 29 additional papers covering security attacks not addressed in those surveys were synthesised. A total of 22 crime threats were identified. A 2-day workshop with experts was then held to present the findings from the review, conduct a crime scenario development exercise to identify any crime threats that were not identified in the review, and to assess the identified crimes. During the workshop, experts generated 6 new crime scenarios, bringing the total to 28 crime threats. To identify and prioritise high-risk crimes for future work, the experts were then asked to rate the threats based on their anticipated harm, achievability, frequency, and defeat-ability. The crime threats with the highest risk ratings included illegal transportation, vehicle theft, vehicle part theft, ransom for financial gain, and vandalism. The implications of our findings for research, policy and practice are discussed. Crime Science, 2025. https://crimesciencejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40163-025-00245-x

Crime Science, 14, Article number: 2 (2025), 39p.

By Gustavo J. Bobonis and Anke Kessler

To what extent can anti-corruption measures serve to limit patronage and corrupt networks effectively and sustainably in clientelist societies with a prevailing norm of corruption? We develop a political agency model in which office holders are motivated to reduce rent seeking behavior through re-election incentives operating via elections and audits (formal institutions), but also through reputational or self-image concerns that are influenced by the prevailing norm on corruption in their peer group (informal institutions). We show that, while the formal institutions of audits and elections have the desired direct effect of reducing corruption, they also affect informal rules of conduct, which can have unintended effects. In particular, in clientelist societies with high levels of corruption, the social concerns work in opposition to formal incentives provided by anti-corruption efforts. Applying the theory to data from Puerto Rico’s anti-corruption municipal audits program, we find evidence consistent with the idea that anticorruption measures are less effective due to social spillovers.

CESifo Working Paper No. 11715, Munich: Munich Society for the Promotion of Economic Research - CESifo GmbH, 2025.

By Triana McNeil

 Criminal organizations generate money from illicit activities such as drug and human trafficking and launder the proceeds. Federal agencies investigate illicit activity and have developed several strategies and efforts to combat these crimes. GAO was asked to review efforts to counter illicit finance activities. This report addresses, among other things, (1) selected agencies’ roles and responsibilities in investigating and prosecuting illicit finance activities and (2) the progress made with selected strategies and efforts to counter illicit finance activities. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed agency documents and data, including those related to eight selected federal strategies and efforts on countering illicit finance activities. GAO compared four of these strategies and efforts—which represent long range, multi agency undertakings—to selected key practices for evidencebased policymaking and for interagency collaboration. What GAO Recommends GAO is making four recommendations, including that Treasury collect and assess performance information on implementing the Illicit Finance Strategy, and that the Department of State and U.S. Agency for International Development establish goals and assess progress for implementing the Initiative. Treasury disagreed with the recommendation, State agreed with the intent of the recommendation but believes it already addressed it, and USAID agreed.

The National Security Council did not provide comments. 2025. 94p.

By Joseph R Friedman, Daniela Abramovitz, Britt Skaathun, Gudelia Rangel, Alicia Harvey-Vera, Carlos F Vera, Irina Artamonova, Sheryl Muñoz, Natasha K Martin, William H Eger ...

Background

Illicitly manufactured fentanyl (IMF) increases overdose mortality, but its role in infectious disease transmission is unknown. We examined whether IMF use predicts hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence among a cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID) in San Diego, California and Tijuana, Mexico.

Methods

PWID were recruited during 2020–2022, undergoing semi-annual interviewer-administered surveys and HIV and HCV serological rapid tests through 2024. Cox regression was conducted to examine predictors of seroconversion considering self-reported IMF use as a 6-month lagged, time-dependent covariate.

Results

Of 398 PWID at baseline, 67% resided in San Diego, 70% were male, median age was 43 years, 42% reported receptive needle sharing, and 25% reported using IMF. HCV incidence was 14.26 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI]: 11.49–17.02), and HIV incidence was 1.29 (95% CI: .49–2.10). IMF was associated with HCV seroconversion, with a univariable hazard ratio (HR) of 1.64 (95% CI: 1.09–2.40), and multivariable HR of 1.57 (95% CI: 1.03–2.40). The direction of the relationship with HIV was similar, albeit not significant (HR 2.39; 95% CI: .66–8.64).

Conclusions

We document a novel association between IMF and HCV seroconversion among PWID in Tijuana–San Diego. Few HIV seroconversions (n = 10) precluded our ability to assess if a similar relationship held for HIV. IMF's short half-life may destabilize PWID—increasing the need for repeat dosing and sharing smoking materials and syringes. New preventive care approaches may reduce HCV transmission in the fentanyl era.

Clinical Infectious Diseases, cia e372, 2024.

By Vasiliki Georgoulas-Sherry & Hanna Hernandez

Data is needed to understand and assess the demographic differences—and at times, disparities and disproportionalities—in how the criminal justice system serves our communities and administers justice. Understanding these disparities and disproportionality in the criminal justice system is crucial for addressing systemic inequities. Disparities and disproportionalities within the criminal justice system are present in all stages of the criminal justice system, from arrest to incarceration (Brame et al., 2014; Kim & Kiesel, 2018; Kovera, 2019; Monk, 2019). This topic continues to draw significant attention from a variety of resources such as local, state, and federal government agencies, advocacy groups, policymakers and lawmakers, researchers and scholars, and the community. Evaluating these disparities and disproportionality is critical for addressing systemic inequalities and promoting fairness in the administration of justice. To respond to these impacts, the Criminal Justice Research & Statistics Center. the Washington Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) applied for and received the 2023 State Justice Statistics (SJS) grant from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) to assess this work. Through the use of publicly available data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to evaluate sex and racial disparities and disproportionalities, this report, which is part of a series of NIBRS reports, will endeavor to better understand more about the different demographic groups that are most impacted, and how these trends vary by time. Furthermore, this report will assess the demographic differences in the presence of injury, the presence of bias motivation, the use of weapons and/ or force, and the presence of familiarity in victimization in NIBRS crimes against property (i.e., criminal acts that destroy or deprive another's property against the owner's will - generally considered less serious than crimes against persons, but they can still be felonies).

Olympia: Washington State Statistical Analysis Center, 2024. 74p.

By Jonathan Lusthaus

Cybercrime is not a solely technical subject but one that involves human offenders who are susceptible to social scientific study. Yet, despite calls for cybercrime research to be mainstreamed, the topic remains a niche area within legal studies and the social sciences. Drawing on the most significant findings over recent years, this review aims to make the subject more accessible to a wide range of scholars by softening some of the perceived boundaries between conceptions of cybercrime and conventional crime. It examines these key themes in the literature: definitions and categories of cybercrime, cybercrime marketplaces, the governance of cybercrime, the importance of “place” within the world of cybercrime, cybercriminal networks, a discussion of what is new or old about cybercrime, and how we should define the concept going forward. The empirical literature on these themes suggests a simple definition is most appropriate: Cybercrime is crime that uses digital technology in a significant way.

Annual Review of Law and Social Science, Vol. 20 (2024), pp. 369–385

By Shawn Davies, Garoun Engström, Therése Pettersson, and Magnus Öberg

This article examines trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2023, fatalities from organized violence decreased for the first time since the rapid increase observed in 2020, dropping from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023. Despite this decline, these figures represent some of the highest fatality rates recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, surpassed only by those of 2022 and 2021. The decrease was primarily attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which accounted for about 60% of battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021. Despite this positive development, the number of active state-based armed conflicts increased by three in 2023, reaching the highest level ever recorded by the UCDP, totaling 59. Non- state conflicts and one-sided violence decreased in 2023 when compared to 2022, evident in both the reduction of the active conflicts/actors and the decrease in fatalities attributed to these forms of violence. However, despite this overall decrease, fatalities resulting from non-state conflicts remained at historically high levels in 2023. Analysis of non-state conflict data spanning the past decade reveals that it comprises the ten most violent years on record. Organized crime groups have predominantly fueled this escalation. Unlike rebel groups, organized crime groups typically lack political goals and are primarily motivated by economic gain. Conflicts between these groups tend to intensify around drug smuggling routes and in urban areas, driven by shifts in alliances and leadership dynamics among the actors.

Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 61(4), 2024, 673­ –693 pages

By Anita Lavorgna, and Anna Sergi

This paper, based on discourse analysis of policy documents, departs from a critique of the juxtaposition of the terms “serious” and “organised” in policies against organised crime in the UK. The conceptualisation of organised crime as national security threat supports our hypothesis that a similar critique can be applied to the emerging narrative of cyber-organised crime in the country. We argue that, whereby organised crime has become essentially “serious” as consequence of its characterisation as a national security threat, cyber crime is becoming “organised” in the policy narrative because of its seriousness. The seriousness and organisation of cyber crime justifies its inclusion within the national security agenda, thus accessing the procedural benefits of criminal intelligence assigned to national security threats. The implications associated to the evolution of such narratives in policy-making need to be assessed while policies are still developing.

International Journal of Cyber Criminology, 2016, 18p.

By Daniel Birks, Elizabeth R. Groff, and Nick Malleson

An agent-based model is a form of complex systems model that is capable of simulating how the micro-level behavior of individual system entities contributes to macro-level system outcomes. Researchers draw on theory and evidence to identify the key elements of a given system and specify behaviors of agents that simulate the individual entities of that system—be they cells, animals, or people. The model is then used to run simulations in which agents interact with one another and the resulting outcomes are observed. These models enable researchers to explore proposed causal explanations of real-world outcomes, experiment with the impacts that potential interventions might have on system behavior, or generate counterfactual scenarios against which real-world events can be compared. In this review, we discuss the application of agent-based modeling within the field of criminology as well as key challenges and future directions for research.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:75-95 January 2025)

By Jack Katz and Nahuel Roldán

Criminology is haunted by state-structured biases. We discuss five. (a) With the spatial boundaries and the binary deontology they use to count crime, governments draw researchers into ecological fog and sometimes fallacy. (b) All legal systems encourage criminologists to promote untenable implications of socially stratified criminality. (c) To degrees that vary by time and place, the scope of criminological research is compromised by methodological nationalism. (d) State agencies use chronologies that repeatedly draw researchers away from examining the nonlinear temporalities that shape variations in criminal behavior. (e) State agencies produce data that facilitate explaining the why of crime, but scientific naturalism would first work out what is to be explained. We recommend a criminology that begins by describing causal contingencies in social life independent of governments’ labeling of crime.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:53-73 , January 2025

By John Hagan

My interest in criminology grew as the Vietnam War escalated. I applied to two Canadian graduate schools and flipped a coin. The coin recommended the University of Toronto, but I chose the University of Alberta, which had a stronger criminology program. I wrote a dissertation about criminal sentencing, which led to an Assistant Professorship at the University of Toronto. Dean Robert Pritchard of Toronto’s Law School encouraged my work and later successfully nominated me for a Distinguished University Professorship. My interests continued to grow in international criminal law. A MacArthur Distinguished Professorship at Chicago’s Northwestern University and the American Bar Foundation facilitated my research at the Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. I followed this by studying the crime of genocide in Sudan and later the trial of Chicago’s Detective Jon Burge. Burge oversaw the torture of more than 100 Black men on Chicago’s South Side. US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald prosecuted Burge when Illinois prosecutors would not. Despite many good things about Chicago, the periodic corruption of the government and police was not among them.

Annual Review of Criminology, Vol. 8:1-23 . January 2025

By Reanna Sanchez

The goal of this process evaluation was to determine how closely the RRC was following evidence-based practices for reentry and to determine how successful the RRC has been transitioning individuals from the jail to the community. To evaluate the effectiveness of the RRC, we (1) conducted a survey of county staff involved in the reentry process (n = 25) to better understand how staff perceive the reentry planning process and the RRC, (2) conducted observations of the intake and screening process at the MDC, and (3) reviewed client records for all inmates who passed through the RRC between 2018 and 2022. We found that there were challenges associated with how the RRC screened, assessed, and targeted individuals for intervention related to a lack of standardization across process components. Surveys collected from staff members provided insight into challenges related to reentry, such as the need for a single case plan to follow the individual through jail and into the community. Finally, analysis of the client-level data illustrated the services and needs of clients. While many individuals (n = 9,985) completed risk needs assessments (RNAs), the number of individuals that completed transition plans (TPs) is far less (n = 2,785). Due to the nature of the different challenges of the current process in place, determining the impact of the RRC on recidivism reduction remains complicated.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2023. 40p.

By  Alex Severson,  Paul Guerin,  Reanna Sanchez, Cris Moore,

This study validates two risk assessments designed to predict inmate misconduct in New Mexico prisons. Using a six-year admission cohort of inmates admitted to New Mexico prisons between 2015 and 2021 (n = 34,2467 unique classification events), we paired focus groups with New Mexico Corrections Department classification staff and observations of the classification process with logistic regression, count models, and random forest models to assess the predictive validity of the New Mexico Corrections Department (NMCD)’s initial and reclassification tools for general and serious, violent misconduct within six months following classification. Results from focus groups and observations highlighted that the NMCD had the essential components of an objective classification system. Our empirical validation found that the reclassification tool was more predictive of misconduct than the initial classification tool for both male and female inmates and generally had good classification performance, though there were limitations with the metric we used for evaluating predictive validity. We also recommended that some factors on the classification tools should be rescored based on their predictive relationship with serious violent misconduct and proposed an updated scoring system based on these relationships (i.e., increasing points for factors which were more predictive of violent misconduct). We also evaluated the relationship between overrides, custody levels, and misconduct.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2024. 70p.

By Alex Severson,  Elise Ferguson

This study evaluates the predictive validity of the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) in Bernalillo County, New Mexico, using data from 22,387 felony cases between July 2017 and June 2023. The PSA, which generates scores predicting defendants' likelihood of failure to appear (FTA), new criminal activity (NCA), and new violent criminal activity (NVCA) during pretrial release, demonstrated "fair" to "good" predictive validity with AUC scores ranging from 0.58-0.69, aligning with results from our initial validation study from June 2021. While the PSA showed similar predictive performance across racial groups for FTA and NCA outcomes, the NVCA flag performed poorly for Black defendants, with predictive validity no better than chance. We also found that age-related risk factors embedded in the NCA and NVCA scales had limited predictive value. We documented significant increases in FTA rates during and after COVID-19, likely due to policy changes that increased court appearances through mandatory status hearings. Despite higher base rates of NCA and NVCA for male defendants, the PSA demonstrated similar predictive validity across genders. Analysis of NCA by charge severity revealed that even high-risk defendants rarely committed serious felonies while on pretrial release. Our findings suggest opportunities to optimize the PSA locally by adjusting how age-related factors are weighted and reconsidering the use of the NVCA flag for Black defendants.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, INSTITUTE FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR APPLIED RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS , 2024. 48p.

By Alex Severson, Reanna Sanchez Chavez, Paul Guerin

This study evaluates the outcomes of the Bernalillo County Community Connections Supportive Housing (CCSH) program, which provides housing and intensive case management services to persistently unhoused individuals with mental illness and substance use disorders who frequently utilize emergency services and the criminal justice system. Using data from 442 CCSH participants enrolled between 2017-2022, we analyzed changes in criminal justice system involvement before and after program enrollment by examining jail bookings and court records. The analysis combined descriptive statistics with logistic regression models to evaluate how program engagement impacted recidivism. Results indicate that participants had significantly fewer bookings into the Metropolitan Detention Center and lower arrest rates in the post-enrollment period compared to pre-enrollment across one, two, and three-year timeframes. Higher doses of case management were associated with reduced odds of recidivism - each additional day (8 hours) of case management received was associated with approximately 7% lower odds of arrest in the year following enrollment. However, this effect faded over longer time periods. Being non-successfully discharged from the program (e.g., due to program noncompliance) was associated with significantly higher odds of recidivism. While our findings suggest potential positive effects of the CCSH program on criminal justice outcomes, our ability to make causal claims is limited by the lack of a control group and incomplete data on post-enrollment periods of incarceration. Future research should examine the program's impact on health system utilization outcomes.

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2024. 22p.

By Aaron Lenihan,  Amanda Hauke,  Francisco Sanchez and Paul Guerin,

The Department of Health, Housing, and Homelessness (HHH) launched the Albuquerque Peer to Peer: Opioid Coordination and Outreach Project in September 2017. The project aims to reduce opioid misuse, overdose, and death in the Albuquerque area by using peer support workers to connect individuals suffering from opioid use disorder with appropriate treatment and recovery support services. This report presents the results of CARA’s evaluation of the Peer to Peer project. We review the scientific literature on similar programs to establish a baseline for expected client outcomes and best practices, and then compare the Peer to Peer project to this baseline through an analysis of program documents and service data. The results of our analysis reveal that Albuquerque Peer to Peer is broadly designed and implemented according to best practices. However, we recommend clarifying the procedures for assessing client needs and facilitating client engagement in referred-to services. In terms of the short-term outcome -- proportion of clients who engaged in the treatment services to which they were referred – we found that Albuquerque Peer to Peer is performing as well as comparable, state-of-the-art peer outreach programs. We recommend the project track middle to long-term client outcomes, like rates of EMS involvement and overdose death, moving forward.

Albuquerque: New Mexico Statistical Analysis Center, Institute for Social Research, Center for Applied Research & Analysis, 2023. 40p.

By Robin Joy

Routine Activity Theory, a criminological theory that describes the circumstances in which crime occurs, can be applied to crimes against vulnerable adults and the elderly. Using a variety of data sources this report examines this theory and finds: 1. Vulnerable Adults are more likely to be victimized by someone they know. 2. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes have criminal histories that indicate a specialization in criminal activity, compared to those of the general offending population. 3. People charged with violating the Vulnerable Adult statutes are significantly older than the general offending population. 4. Most crimes against the vulnerable and the elderly take place in a private home. 5. The elderly are more likely to be victims of larceny, while the vulnerable adults are more likely to be victims of fraud. Routine Activity Theory can explain the victimization against the vulnerable and elderly. Using this framework, policy makers and stakeholders can begin to create policies and programs that can help keep vulnerable and elderly Vermonters safe.   

Montpelier, VT: Crime Research Group, 2022. 17p.