By  Chelsea Estancona and Luca Tiscornia

Most of what we know about organized criminal violence comes from research about illicit narcotics markets. Yet, these groups also fight to capture markets for licit commodities, as evidenced by Sicilian lemons and South African abalone. When do criminal groups violently expand into markets for licit goods? We argue that rapid increases in the share of a good’s export value create opportunities for immediate profit and future market manipulation. This provokes violence as groups expand their territorial holdings and economic portfolios. We test our argument cross-nationally using the Atlas of Economic Complexity, V-Dem, and UNODC. Increases in a country’s share of global export value for agricultural goods are associated with more homicides– but only where criminal groups are present. We then provide subnational evidence of our mechanism using data on avocado exports from Mexico and address reverse causality with Google Trends data about the popularity of avocado toast searches. 

Present at the UNU Wider Development Conference, October 2022. 55p.