By Patrick Lussier and Evan McCuish

Objectives

There is empirical evidence that sexual recidivism rates have been dropping for several decades, but it remains unclear whether this drop is an artifact of changing research methodologies over the years. The current study, therefore, examines whether the sexual recidivism drop is robust while accounting for various methodological factors.

Method

The study is based on a systematic review and a quantitative meta-analysis of 468 empirical studies published between 1940 and 2019 that reported sexual recidivism rates. A total of 626 estimations (n = 388,994) of sexual recidivism were retrieved for the study period and of those, 238 were independent observations (n = 196,651). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted using a meta-regression approach.

Results

A series of meta-regression analyses show that, even after accounting for various methodological factors (e.g., study settings, follow-up length, recidivism criteria), there has been a sexual recidivism rate drop of about 45–60% since the 1970s.

Conclusions

The study findings confirm the presence of a sexual recidivism drop while recognizing that sexual recidivism rates are sensitive to methodological details.

Journal of Criminal Justice

Volume 92, May–June 2024, 102188, p. 16

By Adam Cotter

Criminal victimization in Canada, 2019: Highlights

 According to the General Social Survey (GSS) on Victimization, more than three-quarters (78%) of Canadians were very or somewhat satisfied with their personal safety from crime in 2019.

 One in five (19%) Canadians or their households were impacted by one of the eight crimes measured by the GSS in 2019. There were 8.3 million incidents of sexual assault, robbery, physical assault, break and enter, theft of motor vehicles (or parts), theft of household or personal property, or vandalism.

 Almost seven in ten (69%) self-reported incidents were non-violent in nature. Theft of personal property, the most common crime type, accounted for more than one-third (37%) of all criminal incidents.

 Women (106 incidents per 1,000 women) were violently victimized at a rate nearly double that of men (59 incidents per 1,000 men) in 2019. This gender difference is a result of the fact that women were five times more likely than men to be a victim of sexual assault (50 versus 9 per 1,000).

……

Criminal Victimization in Canada, 2019.