By Patrick Lussier and Evan McCuish

Objectives

There is empirical evidence that sexual recidivism rates have been dropping for several decades, but it remains unclear whether this drop is an artifact of changing research methodologies over the years. The current study, therefore, examines whether the sexual recidivism drop is robust while accounting for various methodological factors.

Method

The study is based on a systematic review and a quantitative meta-analysis of 468 empirical studies published between 1940 and 2019 that reported sexual recidivism rates. A total of 626 estimations (n = 388,994) of sexual recidivism were retrieved for the study period and of those, 238 were independent observations (n = 196,651). A series of sensitivity analyses were conducted using a meta-regression approach.

Results

A series of meta-regression analyses show that, even after accounting for various methodological factors (e.g., study settings, follow-up length, recidivism criteria), there has been a sexual recidivism rate drop of about 45–60% since the 1970s.

Conclusions

The study findings confirm the presence of a sexual recidivism drop while recognizing that sexual recidivism rates are sensitive to methodological details.

Journal of Criminal Justice

Volume 92, May–June 2024, 102188, p. 16

By Kristen Budd, Sabrina Pearce and Niki Monazzam

Sexual violence in America remains a systemic social problem but excessive prison sentences do not address the root causes nor do they necessarily repair harm or bolster accountability. The misdirection of resources toward extreme punishment does little to prevent sexual violence. Since the 1990s, individuals convicted of sex crimes or sex offenses, which we call crimes of a sexual nature (CSN), have been subjected to an increased use of incarceration and longer sentences. They on average serve a greater percentage of their prison sentence compared to those sentenced for other crimes classified as violent, such as murder. The first federal law was also passed establishing state sex offense registries in 1994, the Jacob Wetterling Act.

This escalation in punishment severity and community surveillance occurred alongside two opposing long-term trends. First, recidivism rates for CSN in the United States have declined by roughly 45% since the 1970s. This drop started well before the implementation of public registration and notification, implying that the lifelong punishment approach was not responsible for this decline. Second, based on roughly three decades of nationally representative U.S. criminal victimization data (1993-2021), the number of rape and sexual assault victimizations decreased by approximately 65%. Yet, reactions to CSN continue to evoke failed policies of the past – statutorily increasing minimum and maximum sentences and requiring more time served before release – major contributors to mass incarceration.

This brief uses the term “crimes of a sexual nature” (CSN) to describe what are legally defined as “sex crimes” or “sex offenses.” While we do use similar terms interchangeably in this brief, The Sentencing Project recommends the use of “crimes of a sexual nature” to minimize labeling effects and potential cognitive bias.

Washington DC: The Sentencing Project, 2024. 14p.