By Shelby Hickman, Charlotte Lopez-Jauffret, Stephanie Fahy, Vanessa Masick

Abt Global (Abt) conducted a study for the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) to identify and recommend methods for estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the United States (U.S.). This study supports BJS’s mission to collect, analyze, publish, and disseminate information on crime, criminal offenders, victims of crime, and the operation of justice. As part of the study, Abt completed an environmental scan and held an Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation with BJS in February 2024 that included experts invited to serve on the Advisory Panel. The environmental scan yielded 24 research articles that provided or discussed prevalence of any form of human trafficking spanning geographies inside and outside of the U.S. Between 2017 and 2023, seven articles included random sampling to estimate trafficking prevalence, five used link tracking, three used convenience sampling, four used capture-recapture/multiple systems estimation, and four used respondent-driven sampling. A summary of each sampling method is included in the findings for the environmental scan in Volume I, including strengths and limitations for each type of method. Additionally, key recommendations (balancing precision and generalizability, aligning methods to data sources available, and aligning methods to the characteristics of the population of interest) are included from the environmental scan together with considerations for how BJS can develop a methodology that can produce an unbiased prevalence estimate of human trafficking in the U.S. The Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation occurred on February 28, 2024, and included subject matter experts, BJS and National Institute of Justice representatives, and Abt Global study team members. The meeting resulted in key decision points for estimating human trafficking victimization in the country, including considerations around trafficking type, geography, methodology, and data access and quality. Possible priority areas for trafficking type and trafficking subpopulations are presented in the meeting summary included in this report. Findings from the environmental scan and the expert panel meeting were used to develop three recommendations for a pilot study to test the feasibility of estimating the prevalence of human trafficking in the U.S. Capture-recapture is the preferred method since it has the strongest capability for estimating the prevalence of hidden populations, including human trafficking. Vincent link-trace sampling is the second recommendation, followed by random sampling. This report is arranged in three volumes: 1) Findings from the Environmental Scan; 2) BJS Advisory Panel Meeting on Human Trafficking Estimation Meeting Summary; and 3) Recommendations for a National Estimate Pilot Study.

Rockville, MD: Abt Global, 2025. 66p

By Aisha M Abubakar, Rowland G Seymour, Alison Gardner, Imogen Lambert, Rachel Fyson, Nicola Wright

Background

Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights ‘jigsaw pieces’ of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation.

Methods

We reviewed English Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) data and Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) from 2017 to 22. Data relevant to exploitation and cognitive impairment were analysed using summary statistics and ‘analysis of variance’.

Results

Despite estimates suggesting cognitive impairments may be prevalent among people experiencing exploitation in England, national datasets miss opportunities to illuminate this issue. Although SAC data include statistics on support needs and various forms of abuse and exploitation, they lack intersectional data. Significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations and potential conflation between abuse and exploitation also suggest data inconsistencies. Increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services indicate that adults may be ‘slipping through the net’. SARs, although representing serious cases, provide stronger evidence linking cognitive impairment with risks of exploitation.

Conclusions

This study identifies opportunities to collect detailed information on cognitive impairment and exploitation. The extremely limited quantitative evidence-base could be enhanced using existing data channels to build a more robust picture, as well as improve prevention, identification and response efforts for ‘at-risk’ adults.

Journal of Public Health, Volume 46, Issue 4, December 2024, Pages 498–505,

By Aliya Saied-Tessier

Every day, judges and magistrates make decisions in family courts that have substantial bearing on children’s lives, including where a child should live, who they should spend time with and who should have parental responsibility for them. The main consideration of every decision is the welfare of the child (s.1 Children Act 1989). Yet the family justice system has been described as ‘operating in the dark’ (Curtiss 2019, 25 June)1 without the necessary data to demonstrate that professionals, and the decisions they make, actually help children involved in proceedings.

This paper sets out the significance of data within the context of the family justice system, current limitations, and opportunities and recommendations for improvement. It covers all parts of the family justice system, from children’s social care involvement to family courts, including both public and private law proceedings.

Key points

• The family justice system has been described as ‘operating in the dark’, with fundamental data problems including a fragmented system of data owners and users, and significant data gaps.

• While professionals are working to improve data and its supporting infrastructure (and there are examples of positive innovations such as data linking e.g. Administrative Data Research (ADR) UK’s Data First family court dataset), it remains the case that the family justice system lags far behind other public services in terms of data availability and quality.

• A coherent plan involving all data owners and users in the system could seek to build on data improvement work, fill data gaps, publish more aggregate data, increase safe data linking, and raise standards of data literacy and use.

• The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) is best placed to oversee a data improvement plan and coordinate the rest of the system, building on the data mapping exercise undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research (NatCen).

London: Nuffield Family Justice Observatory. 2024. 25p.

By Terry Ng-Knight, Nandita Upadhyay and Kostas Papaioannou

The evaluation of the first three transparency pilot sites, undertaken by NatCen, was published in July. The report explores the availability and accessibility of data within the family justice system in England and Wales. The findings show there are data gaps, inconsistent data collection and limited accessibility with recommendations to develop a full data strategy for the Family Justice system.

London: The National Centre for Social Research (NatCan): 2024. 28p.

By: Tracey Michelle Pyscher

As a society, we do not openly discuss domestic violence and yet its reality is front and center for children and youth whose lives are deeply shaped by it. At best, the school landscape is bleak for many, if not all, HDV youth (i.e. youth with histories of domestic violence and youth currently living with domestic violence). We know little to nothing about how HDV youth navigate school from their perspectives—how they engage with and resist educational discourses and practices and thus take up subject positions. What we do know from popular, psychological literature is that HDV youth are often objectified as troubled and deficient and this shapes their identities and experiences in school.

In this study, I discuss the challenges HDV youth face when they navigate normative and hegemonic interactions in school. I also analyze the resistive identities and performances HDV youth take up in response to interactions perceived as violating. The study is situated in a public, urban middle school and outlines how HDV youth make sense of their daily interactions with school peers and staff. The study is told through the subjective voices of three female middle school HDV youth—Jen, Mac, and Shanna. Their stories along with the voices of their caregivers offer a counter-narrative to the dominant discourses often shaping the representations of HDV youth.

Data analysis is grounded in the theoretical conceptions of critical sociocultural theory (Lewis, Enciso, & Moje, 2007), resistive ambivalence (Pyscher, 2015; Pyscher & Lozenski, 2014), and Scott’s (1990) conceptualization of hidden and public transcripts. I seek to better understand and theorize the intersections of actions, identities, practices, and discourses that HDV youth use in educational interactions. The methodological foundation of this study is fourfold: critical discourse studies (Gee, 2014), critical ethnography (Emerson, Fretz, & Shaw, 1995), geosemiotics (Scollon & Scollon, 2003), and mediated discourse analysis (Jones & Norris, 2005). Implications include the possibility of creating more liberating educational practices for youth with histories of domestic violence and marginalized youth in general. I conclude by suggesting that we consider creating more transgressive and humane school cultures that embody carnivallike practices.

University of Minnesota, March 2016

By Gena K. Dufour, Charlene Y. Senn, and Nicole K. Jeffrey

Accurate measurement of sexual violence (SV) victimization is important for informing research, policy, and service provision. Measures such as the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES) that use behaviorally specific language and a specified reference period (e.g., since age 14, over the past 12 months) are considered best practice and have substantially improved SV estimates given that so few incidents are reported to police. However, to date, we know little about whether estimates are affected by respondents’ reporting of incidents that occurred outside of the specified reference period (i.e., reference period errors). The current study explored the extent, nature, and impact on incidence estimates of reference period errors in two large, diverse samples of post-secondary students. Secondary analysis was conducted of data gathered using a follow-up date question after the Sexual Experiences Survey–Short Form Victimization. Between 8% and 68% of rape and attempted rape victims made reference period errors, with the highest proportion of errors occurring in the survey with the shortest reference period (1 month). These errors caused minor to moderate changes in time period-specific incidence estimates (i.e., excluding respondents with errors reduced estimates by up to 7%). Although including a date question does not guarantee that all time period-related errors will be identified, it can improve the accuracy of SV estimates, which is crucial for informing policy and prevention. Researchers measuring SV within specific reference periods should consider collecting dates of reported incidents as best practice.

Ontario, Canada: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 26p.

By Jeff R. Temple, Elizabeth Baumler,and Christie Shumate; et al.

Decades of inquiry on intimate partner violence show consistent results: violence is woefully common and psychologically and economically costly. Policy to prevent and effectively intervene upon such violence hinges upon comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon at a population level. The current study prospectively estimates the cumulative incidence of sexual and physical dating violence (DV) victimization/perpetration over a 12-year timeframe (2010–2021) using diverse participants assessed annually from age 15 to 26. Data are from Waves 1–13 of an ongoing longitudinal study. Since 2010 (except for 2018 and 2019), participants were assessed on past-year physical and sexual DV victimization and perpetration. Participants (n= 1,042; 56% female; Mage baseline = 15) were originally recruited from seven public high schools in southeast Texas. The sample consisted of Black/African American (30%), White (31%), Hispanic (31%), and Mixed/Other (8%) participants. Across 12 years of data collection, 27.3% experienced sexual DV victimization and 46.1% had experienced physical DV victimization by age 26. Further, 14.8% had perpetrated at least one act of sexual DV and 39.0% had perpetrated at least one act of physical DV against a partner by this age. A 12-year cumulative assessment of physical and sexual DV rendered prevalence estimates of both victimization and perpetration that exceeded commonly and consistently reported rates in the field, especially on studies that relied on lifetime or one-time specified retrospective reporting periods. These data suggest community youth are at continued and sustained risk for DV onset across the transition into emerging adulthood, necessitating early adolescent prevention and intervention efforts that endure through late adolescence, emerging adulthood, and beyond. From a research perspective, our findings point to the need for assessing DV on a repeated basis over multiple timepoints to better gauge the full extent of this continued public health crisis.

Galveston, TX: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2024. 21p.

By Solveig K. B. Vatnar, Christine Friestad, and Stål Bjørkly

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is an extreme outcome of intimate partner violence (IPV). It is a societal challenge that needs to be investigated over time to see whether changes occur concerning the incidence of IPH, IPH characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and contact with service providers. This study includes the total Norwegian cohort of IPHs between 1990 and 2019 with a final conviction (N = 224). Poisson regression was applied to model the incidence rate of homicide and IPH between 1990 and 2020 as well as the incidence rates of immigrant perpetrators and victims. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between characteristics and period 1990–2012 compared to after 2012 as dependent variable. The results show that though homicide incidence rates in Norway declined steadily and significantly after 1990, IPH rates did not begin to decline until 2015. The following IPH characteristics showed reduced incidence after 2012: IPH-suicide, perpetrators with a criminal record, and IPHs perpetrated subsequent to preventive interventions towards the perpetrator. Sentence length in IPH cases had increased. Changes were not observed for any of the other IPH characteristics investigated. IPH is often the culmination of long-term violence and can be prevented, even if risk assessment is challenging due to the low base rates.

Oslo, Norway: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 27p